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239 comments on Climate Change – an alternative approach
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There is no increase in the over all rate of sea level. I noted before I would find refs and here are a few.
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2006/12/04/decelerating-the-...
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/09/14/sea-level-slowdow...
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/02/09/shocking-facts-ab...
Also note that the amount of snow fall in the Antarctic is increasing, and together with the reduction in Arctic melting is a mere 5% over all reduction in ice between the 2.
I read as much as I can on both sides of the issue, as long as WorldClimateReport reviews PEER REVIEWED papers that contradict the premisses of AGW, I remain skeptical. Especially the hard core extreme alarmist Gorist dogma.
No don't give me the excuse that WCR is funded by Big Oil. A few months back Newsweek tried to do the same thing, but had to retract their own article when it was revealed that, yes, Big Oil in the past 20 years has put in some $18million into challenging AGW theory. But those who work in the theory in the same time frame were funded $50 BILLION. Thus who has money to loose at stake?
And no, the latest IPCC report is 7" to 23" in 100 years. The 7" is the current past average rise that has already been happening for the past 100 years of measurements. That rate has not yet been found to change and the IPCC report admits that.
Richard Wakefield
London, Ont.
No one is ahead of their time, just the rest of humanity is slow to catch on.
why haven't the investment bankers thought about creating yet another derivative that perhaps can make up some of the losses they are suffering from the subprime scandal - write up some put and call options on the coastal properties that have values directly linked to the sea level - the sea-level-rise believers can put their money in puts and doubters can put their money in calls? shouldn't the IPCC members get at least a meaningful percentage of their pay by the type of options according to their opinions?
Richard,
From the synthesis report:
You other points are not relevant since you set the criteria that you need to see a change in the rate of sea level rise. Now you've seen it.
Chris
As long as the 'business as usual' people control the media, all the global warming scientists don't matter. It takes waiting till it's too late, till the hurricane surge comes over the levee, the orchards and vinyards run out of irrigation water, the forests burn down and take exurbia with it, and the Arctic ice pack disappears completely, before it is no longer possible to deny global warming.
Which is about where we are right now.
OK, so we denied tenure to people that talked about global warming years ago, when it wasn't too late. So we defunded people by denying them grants to gather the data that tracked global warming years ago, when it wasn't too late. It doesn't matter any more.
The question that matters now is, what can we do. Note, I am not asking what should we do, I am asking what can we do.
If we shut down oil production six years in advance of running out anyway, all that does is piss off the gasoline buyers, the commuters, and make them blame the Liberal environmentalists.
The Conservative denialists get off scott free and walk away with the money, laughing.
And what does it get us?
Better to just let us hit the wall six years harder. What difference does it make? We are in an irreversible climate shift. Six less years of burning oil and we are not going to save Greenland. Those six years are going to increase greenhouse warming by what, six percent? It's a compound interest thing. The last six months of running up your credit cards are not nearly as ruinous as the first six years.
We are not just concerned about the present amount of CO2 in the air, we are concerned about the melted snow that is no longer reflecting sunlight, the treeline moving north across the taiga and higher along the mountain sides, absorbing sunlight as the snow lies below the branches, the CH4 desorbing from the muskeg as the permafrost melts, and bubbling up from the wave stirred hydrates of the Arctic as the wave damping ice pack melts in the summer sun of the Arctic ocean.
Greenhouse gases from oil and coal are no longer the most important part of the global warming problem. The compound interest on the old greenhouse gases are what is more important.
You know, we went through this before in California. The ecofreaks got the government to buy up the last of the old growth forest. We saved about five years worth of lumber industry, and spent the next forty years with the rural areas bitching about us denying them good jobs at good wages, and subsidizing them by supplementing their taxes to compensate them for losing the employment. We got to compensate them eight times for every lost dollar of wages.
Why go through that again?
Hit the wall six years early and destroy the Conservatives as a political philosophy. Works for me.
Example of unsubstantiated hype. Greenland isn't all going to melt. The last time it was ice free was 180,000 years ago. Other past warm spells did not melt it all, neither will this one. Besides, it would take THOUSANDS of years to melt all that ice even if it warmed with no winters. You can't get past physical laws.
GW is happening, we have to live with it. We should not be spending a dime on trying to stop it as that will use up valuble resources we soon won't have. As oil depletes more people are going to starve to death than people who drown from higher sea levels. Oops, but that isn't happening...
We need to funnel our resources to preparing for a society with dwindling FF supplies. This hype over GW is distracting everyone from that goal, making the time when that realization does happen way too late.
Richard Wakefield
London, Ont.
No one is ahead of their time, just the rest of humanity is slow to catch on.
It doesn't all have to melt to cause serious trouble. Total melting will raise sea levels ~21 feet, but 10% will flood cities, river deltas, etc.
Quite wrong. Many of the options for switching away from fossil fuels (esp. nuclear and some of the biofuels) also have a large impact on AGW emissions. Relatively minor changes to system designs and incentives can address both problems simultaneously.
I think you are correct that we are beginning to see feedbacks that could ultimately dwarf the effect we have had so far on the climate, but I think you are incorrect that how we behave now makes no difference. Only half of our emissions remain in the atmosphere so drastically reducing our emissions should lead to reduced forcing since the atmospheric concentration of CO2 should begin to come down. We will know if there are feedbacks than need to be handled once we have done this, that is we will see if the carbon dioxide concentration continues to decline or if it begins to rise again. If the latter occurs, we should have time to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere ourselves since any feedbacks happening now are still small compared to our emissions.
Chris
Chris, to make the 23" in 100 years the rate must go up THREE TIMES! (for Gore ridiculous 20 feet it would have to rise 10x more than that. Gee, that is a MAGNATUDE more!)
But that rate change is not happening. In the World Climate Report summaries of REFEREED PAPERS is it quite clear that to establish the actual rate of increase is very hard. It goes through cycles of faster rates and slower rates, that at 7" per year has been going on for more than 100 years, long before we came along with FF buring.
If you read the summary in WCR you will note that the rate DROPPED between 1940 and 1993. And the quote you note is very clear that the current increase CANNOT WITH CERTAINTY be because of GW, it might, and most likley is, due to these small fluctations. Besides, this rate change is VERY small, just a few percent change.
Bottom line is the scare mongering of FEET or METERS increase in the next 50 years is PHYSICALLY IMPOSSIBLE.
So if all this melting is going and, and reviews in WCR dispute there is wide scale increases, where is all the water going? This is a serious, and theory breaking, problem. Theories stay or fall on their predictions. If the predictions of feet increases in sea level in the next 100 years does not pan out, the theory is in serious trouble. If there is no change in the rate over the next ten years, the theory is in trouble.
Please, don't just take the IPCC and the Gorites hook line and sinker, read papers that do not support the AGW dogma, there's lots of it. Hence I remain SKEPTICAL (not a denier) that we are contributing 100% to GW and hence can change the current trend.
And BTW, there is an astrophysis, who just died recently, who noted that the changes in the planets around the sun causes the solar system center of gravity to wobble, and with it the sun wobbles causing more or less activity, which affects our climate.
Richard Wakefield
London, Ont.
No one is ahead of their time, just the rest of humanity is slow to catch on.
"...the changes in the planets around the sun causes the solar system center of gravity to wobble, and with it the sun wobbles causing more or less activity, which affects our climate."
Total Crapola! (no surprise you don't understand AGW)
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/comment/story.html?id=b...
And you know this for a fact? Where have you published refuting this? And I do understand AGW, that's why I reject it.
Richard Wakefield
London, Ont.
No one is ahead of their time, just the rest of humanity is slow to catch on.
No, you don't understand it. If you did, you'd understand that the glacial cycles correspond to Earth's orbital eccentricity and axial tilt/precession. Jupiter influences Earth's orbital eccentricity IIRC, but that's already accounted for.
Could it be that one aging scientist could be right, and the entire IPCC is wrong? Far more likely that the aging scientist is getting senile, and you're latching onto his claims because they align with what you want to believe.
These are different issues entirely. You were concerned with observed changes. Those are observed. How well projections work is another matter. It is not too hard to say that with the present trend of the rate of sea level rise doubling every decade we would see 3 meters a year in 100 years. Or we might project a linear rate of increase so that the rate is 3 cm/year in 100 years and it takes 30 years to get one meter. As the IPCC points out, the current rate of sea level rise is consistent with model expectations as is the observed increase in the rate. What we do know is that thermal expansion alone gives a couple of meters once the oceans have fully mixed so you'd need quite a lot of snow piling up somewhere to counter that. We also know that just a couple of degrees or so more warming gives us about 25 meters of sea level rise from melting which could come fast or slow. The science is beginning to favor fast. The reason we know about the 25 meters is because that is what it did last time. The maxium observed rate of increase for sea level is about 5 meters per century but that is likely a lower limit since decade level rates can't be discerned, so five meters in a decade could have happened. Some evidence of destructive flooding suggest pulses are involved in these kinds of things. At least meters in a half a century have been observed so this is not physically impossible. In our present situation of very rapid climate change, it might be more likely to be expected than not.
For those who like more direct evidence than the rate of sea level rise I think this link demostrates our situation very clearly. In another 40 years, the Mountain Ash that used to range down to West Virginia won't have a habitat in the lower 48. That is much less time than the life of a tree. You can see why mass extinction is expected from the climate change we are causing.
Chris
That is NOT what the IPCC says. It clearly notes that the current (small) rate change cannot with certainty be known to be by anything other than normal variations. You even posted that quote.
Unsubstantiated speculation. The oceans will never "fully mix" it will always have warm sections, and deep cold sections, and have currents that circulate. It's gone on like that for 4 billion years.
When and where did this happen? Post a link to the reference to support this. There is nothing in the past 100 year measurements that shows this. Go to the Tide and Currents website and give me the link of the place where that happened.
The graphs I've seen published shows that at the end of the last ice age the rate of sea level was much faster than today, but has since dramatically slowed down (to the current 7"/Cy on average) looking like the left half of a bell curve.
Richard Wakefield
London, Ont.
No one is ahead of their time, just the rest of humanity is slow to catch on.
Richard,
You need to read the synthesis report. Clearly, the increased rate of sea level rise is taken as supportive evidence. It is important to caution that past performance may not be inticative of future results. We don't know if we are settling into 3 mm/yr of if the trend will change in the near future, perhaps to 6 mm/year.
You clearly don't understand thermal expansion. There are temperature variations in the oceans. But those deltas are not what mixing is about. The deltas may remain the same (or get back to what they were) but the deep water is warmer with mixing. The whole scale shifts preserving the deltas. So, there are portions of the oceans now that have yet to warm, but very predictably will which leads to more thermal expansion.
It is during periods of catastrophic deglaciation that the highest rates of sea level rise are measured. You might want to read Hansen et al. in Philispohical Transactions this year for a masterful treatment. Read it carefully, and you'll be well repayed for the effort.
Chris
The pace of melting of the Greenland ice cap has tripled in just the last 5 years. It is a fait accompli.