 | The Energy and Environment Round-Up: November 21st 2007 | The Oil Drum | Australia, The Place To Be: Part 3a |  |
260 comments on DrumBeat: November 23, 2007
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260 comments on DrumBeat: November 23, 2007
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I understand he is one of the more pessimistic PO-alarmbell-ringers. I also understand that all his predictions so far were spot on.
With his track record, this is indeed a major loss. For the entire world. His 4 phases of transition (see Substrates link) can be taken as a guide for the future. Read it.
Yes, his prediction is still one of the best, in Khebab's "spaghetti" production graphs. Pretty impressive, considering his is one of the older forecasts.
There is one line in that graph I really don't get. I've inquired before but still don't understand.
It's that light green line going in to orbit, never to come back. If it is Koppelaars'as indicated in the legenda, why is it not coming down? Rembrandt say PO in 2012-2015. It looks more like IEA's or CERA's to me.
I would guess that that forecase simply stopped before it came down, not that it's never coming down.
Then why is it included in this graph?
Why not? It's a forecast of future production.
Well, it doesn't come down in the graphs' timeframe. Who's forecast is it? And it is really not much of a forecast anyway. This green line runs out of sight in 2010
I think the forecast was just "no peak before 2012." That is a forecast that is of interest, and it doesn't mean Koppelaar thought there would never be a peak.