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255 comments on DrumBeat: November 25, 2007
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255 comments on DrumBeat: November 25, 2007
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GAIA Host Collective
It's encouraging to read the article Reaching our peak oil supply. Another shot at the folks who live in suburban sprawl luxury, thinking it will last forever.
The author even asks the obvious question:
That note followed the statement:
Those of us who have been involved in the energy mess for more than 30 years, as I have, can be happy now that our worst fears are being brought out into the light of day. But, is there enough time, money and energy to stop the train and back up toward a sustainable society? TPTB didn't listen during the 1970's and 1980's, so what will it take to get their attention this time?
E. Swanson
TPTB didn't listen during the 1970's and 1980's, so what will it take to get their attention this time?
See Edward's Energy Plan below.
Alan
Couldn't get the link to work. Where is this?
He screwed up the HTML. I fixed it.
Also, it's posted up top.
"He screwed up the HTML. I fixed it."
If only PO were so easy... ;)
Congratulations to Jeffrey Brown ! WELL DONE !
Best Hopes for Persistence,
Alan
This was one of two MSM print interviews I did in the past couple of weeks. We will see what happens with the other one.
In any case, I think that Rod Dreher did a very good job. He really didn't pull any punches. It's one of the hardest hitting MSM articles I have seen on Peak OIl.
BTW, Rod was the one who asked me to write the "Yes, we have peaked" side of a Peak Oil debate for the Dallas Morning News, which was published in June, 2006 (with contributions from Alan Drake and Bart from the EB): http://www.energybulletin.net/17009.html
I have to admit that, to some extent, the "Iron Triangle" is beginning to crack, although I assume that the cornucopian articles still vastly outnumber the Peak Oil acceptance articles.
Thank you and congrats Mr Browne for putting reality up against the wall in a fairly balanced manner!
One thing that annoys me is that the MSM consequently still is referring to Hubberts peak as “a theory” …(!!)
That was fairly ok some decades ago, but NO more. Because when people read/hear about theories they tend to respond more ignorant … “so what if”… “then what ?” … you know. Next time you should make an emphasis that PO is NOT A THEORY – it is reality, the question is ONLY when …. And so forth.
One more thing, if memory serves, the IEA actually downscaled the 2030 production forecast in a very flexible manner – saying it probably will hover in the range of between 102.3 mb/d and 116 mb/d that is significant (!)
I believe IEA is spotting the text on the wall, next year IMO they will flirt with “90 mb/d”. It would look too stupid from their side to just jump from 130 mb/d to 87 mb/d … in the space of only 2 – 3 years ;-)
Obviously if PO is round about now – the 2030 numbers will be something completely different from any number we can guesstimate about … and that includes IEA, EIA and others …. CERA , will they still be around in 2030 ?
I was going to reply to this. That Hubbert's theory is that, a scientific theory. There are bits of data that support the theory and predictions that are now coming true, but just like evolutionary theory with its facts, Oil Depletion is a theory in how it describes what is going on, and how oil fields generally follow a profile. But since no one believes anything I say any more, that I'm deluded by others, then I won't bother...
Richard Wakefield
Gravity is also "just a theory", but I wouldn't advise jumping off of something tall without a parachute to test it.
It seems even more difficult to get people's attention today.
What will it take? Well, since so much of the "wealth that controls the purse strings" is tied up in economic and financial services, it will take the demise/meltdown of the underpinning financial system.
Every other Western power worth noting over the past 500 years falls in much the same way. They become the dominant (technological/economic/military) powers of their time and then begin to depend upon their financial success as the basis for their power. But each made fundamental economic mistakes that were sometimes exascerbated by military adventurism (sound familiar) and down tumbled the system.
Bye, bye, American Pie.
Who will pick up the pieces?
This is Sunday, so... I think it's a mistake to imagine that the fall or decline of an empire will be pleasant or managable. Most, if not all empires, didn't so much fade away as drown, drown in blood.
Unpleasant as it is to think about this, empires, from their peak, create probably as much destruction as they did on their way upwards towards the apex of their power.
Also the idea that there will be pieces to pick up may be way to begign a metaphore. Often there are people ready and waiting to carve and slice off huge chunks of the empire as it grows weaker, thereby hastening its decline.
Gibbon who wrote the classic work on the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, was also writing about his own time, as most historians do. Being an enlightenment intellectual, he was sceptical of organised religion, Christianity, which he thought could weaken the nacsent British Empire, so he put a lot of the blame for the decline of the Rome at the door of Christianity.
Which brings me neatly to the head of the Church of England, the Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams, who is critical of imperialism, both the British and American varities. He thinks all this violence and the belief in the effecacy of violence is overated. He believes the United States is going down the wrong path, creating an empire of brutality even worse than the British at its hight. He also thinks our culture has become sickeningly materialist, consumerist, and hollow. If our hearts are hollow, where has our humanity gone? if our humanity has gone, what have we become?
The question is; is it too late for the United States to turn its back on the temptation to forge an Empire? Looking at American history the answer is emphatically - Yes, it is too late. The United States has been the dominant world empire for over half a century.
Only since the disintegration of the Soviet Eurasian empire, a crazed dream of creating a hyper-empire which ruled the world, has arisen in Washington. An empire of unrivalled size and power. It's this crazed idea that is really dangerous and ultimately hugely destructive and counter-productive. But maybe this is just the way of empires. They are either expanding, or contracting, there is no imbetween.
So do we, as a species, have the intellectual and social aptitude and fortitude to see the inevitable downside to perpetual empire-building or are we doomed to repeat and rinse this scenario over and over throughout our history?
In other words, can we force ourselves to stop being greedy in all facets of our lives? We have an instinctive nature that compels us, but we also have the brains to act against our instinctive nature. This is what supposedly separates our species from all others, so why do we appear to not capitalize on this advantage, but in the end fall back on instinctive nature.
Ah...Sunday ponderings.
As a species? I fear you generalise just a little too strongly. We are not all the same - all human beings are not the same as Americans - surprising as this may seem. Americans are currently 'exceptional' in their zest for empire, and lust for supremacy over the world's resources, compared to a lot of other societies.
And most importantly, the US is well placed to make some rational decisions to mitigate disaster. No-one 'needed' to travel vast distances for Thanksgiving, or indeed to go shopping on Friday. Most of the world's population has never flown, or even used a telephone. Many don't have clean drinking water. A little perspective would be useful.
Um, Pot/Kettle?
Severe sarcanol alert.
Yes please don't lump the rest of the world into the same category as the evil energy using Americans that never do anything to help the world and yet burn all the worlds resources giving not a *#@( about anyone else.
/sarcanol
FYI, a lot of the US population falls under the category of 'Most of the worlds population' according to you.
I personally would prefer to bring EVERY American soldier, peace core worker, UN dollar, etc. etc. home. Secure our own borders for real, shoot tresspassers on sight, and tell the rest off the world where to stuff it. However the US has never been allowed to do that as countries knowing where to get a handout come here hat in hand asking for help.
The only empire I care about is my home, which by the way I stayed in this thanksgiving and went no where.
Thank you. I think you made my point for me very nicely. Carry on.
When exactly was the time and place where society was cultured and humane, and did not indulge in violence and consumption?
The Archbishop repeats the "Descent from the Golden Age" myth. It's been a recurring theme for millennia. The Greeks, Romans wrote about the same thing.
Bob,
You're right. The Archbishop, being an Archbishop is part of long tradition going back millenia. This could be seen as a strength and a weakness. Depends on ones perspective.
I don't believe in the Golden Age either. I don't think Rowan Williams does either. However, he does seem to believe that the direction we're going in isn't particularly pleasant. I think he's more concerned about the future, than the past.
I must admit I rather like the Archbishop. He's a concientious and serious Christian. One of his biggest regrets is that he didn't actively put himself forward as a potential leader and focus of the opposition to the attack on Iraq. He feels he could have done more to prevent it. As such he is regarded with deep suspicion by the war-party.
I've also heard that he's somewhat sceptical of Tony Blair's professed "Christianity". There's a rumour that Blair is going convert and become a Catholic very soon, perhaps on his next visit to Rome. Clearly joining the Catholics doesn't make him super-popular with the Archbiship!
Convert?
I thought he's always been a Catholic. Remember the hoo-haa about him sending his kids to a Catholic school rather than the local London comprehensive?
All Christians believe in the Golden Age (they call it Eden), it's a fundamental principle of their religion. The Fall of Man is the descent into sin etc. The purpose of Christians is to restore that Golden Age.
There is nothing wrong with wanting to achieve a better world, I think we can all agree with that. Christianity has had over 2000 years to achieve the goal of a harmonious Earth, it has not done very well. Unfortunately the Archbishops benign form of religion is overshadowed by the fundamentalist sort.
Not sure that empires always end in a big bang. History seems to indicate that they quite often they morph into something new and just cease to be the center of discussion. The Roman Empire morphed into the Byzantine Empire and the British Empire did a very good job of climbing down off the pedestal of empiredom, while still retaining significant power.
This is Big subject. I'm not trying to be definitive, just wondering. I would question the use of the word "morphed" though. Whilst one can argue that Rome declined over centuries and Byzantium continued for hundreds of years; one can also argue that the socalled "Byzantine Empire" was a very different kind of empire than Rome, and was really not an empire at all, but rather an important trading centre. A city-state where Roman values and culture survived behind virtually impregnable walls and not much else, but it's a huge subject to get into.
I'm also sceptical about the widespread idea that somehow the British Empire declined gracefully and is a model worthy of emulation. I heard the other day that Britain has the second largest military budget in the world, way lower than the United States, which is supreme, but spends more than Russia or China!
I think one can argue that Britain, in reality, destroyed itself and its empire by fighting two massive wars with the rising power of Germany for domination of Europe. At the end of WW2 it was a broken country, bankrupt, and so weakened economically, militarily, and politically, that it more or less became an American client-state, losing the real sovereignty it had supposedly fought Germany to preserve.
This kind of thinking is speculative and highly controversial, but I think worth considering. It's also a taboo subject in Britain. The British believe they won WW2. I'm not so sure. It seems they paid a collosal price for refusing the peace Germany was offering them. The deal they cut with the United States was arguably worse.
About 1904 Halford Mackinder, a Brit, put forth the 'Heartland Theory' that influenced not only GB but the US as well in the two wars that were to follow. Mackinder said that the 'heartland' of Western Europe and Eastern Europe/Eurasia, if united, could not be defeated by the rest of the worlds sea power. Mackinder was probably right at the time but he did not invision the rise of air power or nuclear weapons. The Brits and the US worked very hard to keep Russia or Germany from conquering and uniting Europe/Asia from the Channel to the Pacific.
By the time Hitler had come to power in Germany and was in the process of conquering the surrounding states GB was in very poor financial shape and had let their army decline. Chamberlain, often criticized for appeasing Hitler, had little choice for he had little in the way of an army to oppose Germany. Italy was also a great threat to GB for it sat aside GBs Mediteranian sea route to its economic mainstay, India. See: 'The Rise And Fall Of The Third Reich'. I do not think that you will like what Hitler had planned for GB if they had accepted his surrender terms.
I would be more inclined to say that GB followed the path that they did to attempt to protect their empire. GB would have lost their empire if they had allowed the 'heartland' to form and they were gambling that by stopping a 'heartland' formation that they could maintain their empire. GB could not know beforehand that their empire would be lost in any case. I do suspect that Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin knew what was going to happen, especially after it became evident that Russia was going to defeat Germany with or without any outside help...It would have taken a couple of more years. Once that the US and GB realized that Stalin would not stop at Berlin they became very anxious to get the Normandy Invasion under way. Of course there are some very interesting theories about why certain US banks were allowed to finance Hitlers rebuilding war machine and why certain US companies were allowed to lend technical help to Germany. I would say that the intentions of some US politicians and corporations were suspect both before and during WW2. Hitler had a lot of supporters both in GB and the US.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geopolitics
'The doctrine of Geopolitics gained attention largely through the work of Sir Halford Mackinder in England and his formulation of the Heartland Theory in 1904. The doctrine involved concepts diametrically opposed to the notion of Alfred Thayer Mahan about the significance of navies (he coined the term sea power) in world conflict. The Heartland theory hypothesized the possibility for a huge empire being brought into existence in the Heartland, which wouldn't need to use coastal or transoceanic transport to supply its military industrial complex but would instead use railways, and that this empire couldn't be defeated by all the rest of the world against it.'
i'd disagree with your suggestion this is a taboo subject in the UK...
to the contrary post-colonial guilt was a huge part of the culture during my upbringing, and discussing the decline of empire and what Britain has become and will become is probably the most talked about dinner conversation of the chattering classes outside of sex and pop culture nonsense
indeed what becomes of Britain and its sovereign status is probably one of the biggest political themes for decades
in/out of Europe
keep/lose the pound
what is the relationship to the commonwealth... etc.
Reading the comments section of the Times article about what the Archbishop said is, shall we say, educational.
US is‘worst’ imperialist: archbishop
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/faith/article2937068.ece
Democracy is meaningless when the minds of people can be easily tweaked to support whatever TPTB want. The one thing that comes across from reading the comments attached to that article is the singularity of the mindset. Talk about singing from the same hymn sheet.
If TPTB want empire then they will have little problem taking the population with them in their grand designs. Who's going to stop them? Except some other group of TPTB with their own zombified citizens to back them up.
Burgundy,
I went back and had a look at the comments section you so kindly pasted. Now the comments seem not to be based on reading the Archbishop's full interview, as far as I can tell, but rather on very selective and shortened version of what he said presented by the Sunday Times.
The Sunday Times makes Rowan Williams seem like a loony, trendy, vicar. I think he's a serious, thinking, rational, Christian. His job is, after all, to think about Christianity and the role of the Anglican Church in the modern world.
A lot of the comments about his views seem very emotional indeed, especially many from the United States. Whereas Rowan Williams seems considered and thoughtful, lots of the comments are startlingly agressive and extraordinarilly vicious. It's like reading stuff the Nazi's said about people who disagreed with them, or Stalin's apologists, or Mao's followers. Whatever happened to civilized discourse! Are we all going mad! Can't we even discuss ideas now?
It seems like the core of Rowan William's argument is this whole idea that violence is an effective solution to complecated problems. He questions this profoundly. I think it's good that Christian leader has the courage to do this. It's just rather scary that so many people react with such violent rhetoric to a man who, after all, is only asking us to stop, think, and consider; whether violence and war, are really the answer.
Archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams is irrelevant.
If the best the guy can do is to draw erroneous parallels with imperial history then the guy has nothing useful or insightful to say.
Empires made money off of their imperial holdings. Control of distant lands once was profitable. We are way past that point. The idea that the US has some sort of profitable empire to lose is a myth.
The US will rise or fall based chiefly on what happens within our own borders. Do we build wind farms, nukes, and more energy efficient cars and houses? Do we develop cheaper photovoltaics? Lighter and longer lasting batteries? Or not? Do we make our houses way more insulated and switch to geothermal heat pumps or not? Do we move closer to our jobs or not? Do we change our zoning ordinances to allow closer intermixing of commercial and residential so that people can walk to work? Or not?
We have all sorts of things we can do to adapt to Peak Oil. Empires are a distraction from doing those adaptations.
If it was up to me I'd stop wasting $3 billion per week on Iraq and spend it on energy efficiency and new forms of energy. Empire is a drain. Our solutions are close to home.
The day after 9/11, I sent an e-mail to some friends arguing that, in fact, the British empire ceased to be profitable long before it ceased to exist, or even ceased to grow. Before 1857 India was actually controlled by a private corporation, the East India Company, which crapped in its own nest a few times too many and had to deal with a large rebellion by calling in the ultimate government bailout. This is a fantastic example of privatizing profits while socializing costs. The old system was profitable because the Company wasn't held responsible for the welfare of the various Indian publics. But as a governmentally-organized occupier, the British crown got stuck with the cost of welfare instead of the defeated princes. Private firms that could exploit the new system could profit, and ordinary Britons were bribed with the most seductive of opiates, the idea that a poor white man could move to a colony and exploit many non-whites for his fortune. Perhaps the Crown prized both these motivations all along. In any case, Britain got away with it for 90 years before withdrawing.
So we shouldn't assume the American public will see the holistic unprofitability of our current project as long as Halliburton is selling stock and hiring truck drivers with 6-figure salaries. Or as long as the empire serves as a cornerstone for certain ideologies that are much more important to America's cohesive identity than the current costs.
Who will replace (and soon) the US as the big bully of the world? Throwing it's weight around the world to form an empire of its own? China! And when that happens people will look back and wish for things to be like they once were. Grass is always greener.
Richard Wakefield
Then so mote it be.
'drove my chevy to the levee but the levee was dry..'
"...And outside in the distance, four riders were approaching, and the wind began to howl..."
"...And outside in the distance, [a wildcat did growl],
fourtwo riders were approaching, and the wind began to howl..."from John Wesley Harding, 1967
Guys, if you're going to quote, at least quote correctly:
"Outside in the cold distance
A wild cat did growl
Two riders were approachin
And the wind began to howl"
Well, you're correct of course, and I stand corrected. I had a feeling my brain was pulling me off the well-troden path. Wow - now I may be screwing with Robert Plant's lyrics! Anyway I kind of prefer four riders as opposed to just two. I was kind of thinking of the four riders of the apocalypse, it being Sunday, and we're in such a cheerful mood and all!
One of the worlds most precious metals, Led, now has its' own radio station on XM satellite, lol.
"All Along the Watchtower" was written by Bob Dylan
John Wesley Harding is the name of the album
http://youtube.com/watch?v=NYPZdx2sl0o&feature=related
Jimi Hendrix's cover of the song is probably the best known
http://youtube.com/watch?v=1n7EEcv5bIw
On or off topic ... its late ... where I sit !
Brace yourself – I went into the lyrical corner for some “fifteen minutes…” hehe – (Blowing in the wind , is flexile …)
How many pipes must a man lay down
Before you call him a man?
Yes, 'n' how many rigs can be raised to the sky
Before they’ll come crumblin’ down?
Yes, 'n' how many times can a president shout GO?
Before he’s forever banned n’ gone?
The answer, my friend, is fadin' in the fumes,
The answer is fadin' in the fumes….
How many times can a man scream “moe’ oil”?
Before his sole’ brain cell kicks in?
Yes, 'n' how many cars can one street hold?
Before there’s a bus there instead?
Yes, 'n' how many cats can one dog eat
Before It can see there’s no moe’?
The answer, my friend, is fadin' in the fumes,
The answer is fadin' in the fumes….
How many years can an oil-peak exist
Before it’s just washed through a drum?
Yes, 'n' how many people like TODers must exist
Before they're allowed to be heard ?
Yes, 'n' how many times can a man turn his head,
Pretending he just doesn't see?
The answer, my friend, is fadin' in the fumes,
The answer is fadin' in the fumes….
Other Dylan videos you might enjoy
http://youtube.com/watch?v=TFtdjFoeNic&feature=related
http://youtube.com/watch?v=doNU1EndU8I&feature=related
I like the Dave Mason version, followed by Jimi Hedrix version.
Here you go, River. "All Along the Watchtower" Dave Mason Live
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nb_O2LfyxAw&mode=related&search=
Boy, are we getting old.
Robert Plant?
Didn't Bob Dylan write it? And Hendrix did the best version of course :P
And actually that should have been the first verse.