If he didn't he should have. What if the production data were reported weekly, or daily. Where is averging in all this, to discern the trend from the fluctuations? The trend is flat production. It'll take months or more to say otherwise. It's only years from now, averaging out the noise, that we'll put a month/year on peak. But it'll be academic.

It was either Cambell or Deffeys who said that peak should be indicated by whether producers are able to sustain production for at least 5 years.

I also think that this event develops on at least year-long scale. Month to month variations are too minute to indicate (almost) anything - pretty much like following day-to-day price variations.

I would appeal though that we should be equally fair on both sides - a dip in output in one or several months is as much a proof to the "peak-oil-now" theory, as much as a similar short-lived growth is a proof to the opposite.

The current trajectory of the URR is "aimed" directly at 2200 GB.

But for a laugh, you ought to include the EIA's IEO 2006 projections.

Pitt the Elder wrote:

Everything in "all liquids" is a direct substitute for a major use of oil. EIA and IEA both refer to all liquids as "oil supply". Looking at that number is the only reasonable thing to do.

I disagree completely with your statement. The various liquids in the reports are not equal in their ability to produce energy from each barrel of product. That's because there's less energy in a barrel of ethanol or propane than there is in a barrel of crude or products like diesel or JP5 fuel.

Adding all these into a total distorts the facts about the energy available. Without getting into a further discussion regarding the EROEI for oil vs. ethanol, just summing the energy available over time would be better than a total in barrels. That approach would certainly give a better picture of our situation.

Even better would be some attempt at an EROEI analysis, since, as we all know on TOD, the amount of energy required to produce corn ethanol is much higher than that required to drill a hole in the ground. And, were there to be an EROEI approach, this would also capture the fact that oil is no longer being found in large quantities by simply drilling, but now is recovered by major industrial enterprises placed far off shore. This would show that it's becoming ever more difficult to supply the energy demand of consumers outside the small world of the energy producing sectors. To do this would provide all who were interested with a much better grasp of the reality, without there being a need for detailed understanding of the sort we see here on TOD.

E. Swanson