I do think that there is a good probability that a massive input of a one or a few supervolcanos can shift the "equilibrium" state from one semi-stable mode to another.

That such a single or few pulse forcing can cause century+ long changes is frightening, since humanity has built EVERYTHING, and adapted agriculture to the way things are (and have been for the last half century or so). ANY change, natural or man-made is a disaster !

If, as you hypothesize, we are in another natural warming cycle, then that adds increased urgency, to the point of panic, to STOP MINING COAL NOW !

To add increased man-made warming (Greenhouse Gases are a physical reality and cannot be denied) to a natural warming trend will too quickly lead to a cascading failure of the world as we know it. The likely consequences of too rapid climate change are social collapse, war and a massive die-off.

The costs of doing without coal are fair lower, just more immediate.

Best Hopes that we are NOT in another natural warming trend !

Alan

Sure volcanoes have huge amounts of sulfur dioxide and CO2, Note sulfur dioxide from a super-volcano would cause sulfuric acid YAY!!!

In any case these are minor nobody has mentioned the huge discharges of dust look at what st helens did the year I was born in 1982-83 winter. Think about it for a bit and realize that dust is truly a driving factor....

Dust even kills hurricanes. Drier = less hurricanes. Sounds good on paper but has terrible other consequences.

HO,

I don't think its just one thing. Volcano and Sunspots, with/or because of Chandler effect,.. and other. I saw a post the other day that had an interesting tidbit. There have been 5 earthquakes 8 or greater in 2007(I think good record keeping goes back only 33 or so years). The average is 1 per year. Those are big shakers. Magma is on the move around the world. Magma raising Yellowstone by 3 to 4 inches. Maybe not "dangerous" but its magma on the move and its near the surface. Volcano's are not a subject that is well understood imo.

The earth is 80 percent or so water. 70 percent or so very deep water is my guesstimate. We can only observe whats above surface for the most part, and new research shows that the floor of the seabed has many more volcano's than previously thought, and rifts are more active than they thought, some thought dead are active, and active ones are putting out more lava than they suspected.. I have posted a link (s) to this research/facts a few weeks back.

Not only that, from recent discoveries (from sea volcano's and the rifts/plates), how a volcano's and rift magma come up is not what they thought. The plates near the ring of fire have revealed that the theory's of past didn't fit what they have discovered. Sources of magma not connected to plates rubbing movements basically as I recall.

For an ice age you need cold and h20 to create ice, snow for the albedo effect.

Even though its warming, an argument can be made that it is cold enough right now to start a new ice age. Lots of moisture and cold air in the winter this year could extend snow cover because of the amounts. Last year Europe was complaining about ski resorts. Now and in many other places they are already open. Early heavy snow, if it continues and then late snows, which will create shorter summers.

The ice cores and earth samples show that ice ages don't take 10,000 years. It happens much quicker. Hundreds, maybe less. Effects from the change in ten years of its beginning could be a disaster. The Pentagon released a report that discussed a shut down of the North Atlantic Conveyor would be felt in Europe
(with population effects) within ten years I recall.

I watch the conveyor, and its been "odd" and sluggish from satellite images.

The sunspot number has shown a possible correlation to climate changes. A prediction had been made for a very intense period of sunspots. They thought it should have already started. They pushed it back as it became obvious that the prediction was not correct. Now they have backed off the intensity. Most people don't give a hoot about the sunspot number and I bet very few know whats been happening (or really not happening) for some time now. I recall reading we had a period of 23 days (in a row) at the least, with not one single sunspot in the last couple of months. And the count has been very low. Is there a correlation between the late winter in the southern hemisphere with abnormal late cold and snowfall. The early snowfalls in Europe and NA. Hard to say, because they thought we should be in the begging of an active sunspot period. When/if is that going to start. But it is/can be observed and we might see it confirmed in a decade or so.