206 comments on DrumBeat: November 28, 2007
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206 comments on DrumBeat: November 28, 2007
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GAIA Host Collective
Two 4 part series here quite interesting. If either are the case global warming or cooling we are in for a world of hurt. If the cooling is indeed the case it could be quite catastrophic. But then again the sad thing is if the cooling is indeed the case nobody is prepared for it in the slightest...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vN06JSi-SW8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCXDISLXTaY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQQGFZHSno
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDX2ExKYyqw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iP4mYcrd_18
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAUdDLTLXGU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDiJyr0TK6E
Judge for yourself. I have moved myself to the fence again.
I never think the world is black and white so there must be grey area. This is where I am right now in the grey trying to make sense of it. I see this data as reputable and therefore considerable.
Professor Cahtah makes some good, interesting points. Among them: climate change, like peak oil, will be known with certainty only in hindsight.
The other point, which I believe he misses (sorry only watched first clip), is that our species has used this last ten thousand year period of nice weather to overshoot sustainable limits. Again in hindsight, we shall only know how far we've overshot when the next not-so-nice period arrives. I'm guessing a factor of ten or so. Come to think of it, peak oil also figures into the overshoot.
But the indisputable science behind AGW is that CO2 does indeed scatter thermal infrared. And we are indeed increasing the level of CO2 in the atmosphere. This effect will mean warmer nights, warmer winters, and a climate which is different than it would otherwise have been.
So let's hope for his predicted little ice age to precisely cancel the AGW event. :)
Not only that, 80% of the growth has happened in just the last century.
Ice ages appear to be caused by Milankovich cycles, and we are inexorably headed into the next ice age, perhaps in the next 10,000 years. The best thing would be that AGW defers the onset of the next ice age, some scientists say it already has (Ruddiman).
In terms of climate change, AGW is a little warm up exercise. Surviving the next ice age is the real event.