The Oil Drum

Back several years ago, I downloaded a document from Alyeska Oil website that indicated that without drilling into both NPR-A and/or ANWR (Area 1002), the pipeline would reach it's transport minimum by 2017 (200,000 BPD) and ready for "abandonment in place" status.

The combined effects (and building the required infrastructure, particularly for ANWR since it's a long way from the TAP) of NPR-A and ANWR could extend the life to roughly 2034 if the USGS Mean estimates we actually found and recovered. A temporary boost in throughput up to a level between 1.4 and 1.5 million BPD would be likely if the oil from ANWR really exists.

The oil resources in NPR-A are bit more certain because of the greater amount of drilling and seismic work in NPR-A and some of the reserves are currently being drilled and being readied to be brought online to slow the decline caused by the Prudhoe Bay fields reaching the end of their lives (average water cut is now greater than 75%).

The argument (in Alaska at least) really is less about a Wildlife Refuge turned into a Wilderness Area (although there are some fairly strong opinions about THAT process), than it is about the availability of infrastructure to move any oil that might actually exist. It seems pretty clear to me that once the TAP is shutdown, oil in ANWR (1002) becomes a moot point.