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There's a story in today's New York Times regarding the problem of declining exports from oil producing countries. Looks like Jeffrey Brown's Export Land Model is gaining some acceptance.
Oil-Rich Nations Use More Energy, Cutting Exports
E. Swanson
Already been posted several times in yesterday's DrumBeat.
The full print version on the front page of the paper is quite a bit longer than the summary that the Times posted online yesterday.
Congratulations !
Any links to longer version ?
Best Hopes,
alan
The link that Black Dog provided goes to the longer version. IMO, Cliff Krauss wrote a very good introduction to the topic of declining net oil exports.
I don't recall your getting a citation in the article, though you've acknowledged they spoke to you.
???
Cliff and I had several conversations, but I am in no way taking any kind of credit for this story. This is his work, and I think that he did a very good job. I don't know what kind of discussions went on behind the scenes at the Times, but my guess is that trying to discuss the mathematical models of future exports was too complicated for an introductory article, and perhaps too scary.
My only real complaint is that I think that the MSM guys should reference the fact that Yergin's price and production projections have so far been way off the mark.
Even such an original thinker as Darwin acknowledges in the "Preface" of Origin of Species that all his ideas have "predecessors," and he cites every single one.
The least the reporter could have done was acknowledge a paraphrase. Some of it sounds awfully familiar:
That "Experts say" is one of the crappiest phrases in journalese. The whole passage sounds lifted from graphoilogy.com.
Of course, we were building on prior work too, by Simmons & Deffeyes, among others.
But fundamentally the MSM guys that are willing to start talking about declining oil production and oil exports are only to be congratulated.
Hello,
Der Spiegel ran an article quoting the NYT, but mentioned that the NYT had drawn its information from a study by the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC).
Here is the link.
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,522251,00.html
They also quoted Yergin at the end!
That being said, Spiegel has been pretty good and comes out regularly now with articles that would have been unimaginable just six months ago.
Ciao,
FB
Why does everyone keep quoting Yergin, when he's been so wrong? What does this guy have to do to discredit himself?
Why do media report on Paris Hilton?
Why does the most moronic presidential candidates get the most air time?
It's all in the entertainment value, not in the newsworthiness of the content :)
Because then each of us can delude himself (herself) into thinking we're smarter.
Good to see it in the MSM. Still full of dumb ass statements though. From the article:
"In some cases, the governments of these countries subsidize gasoline heavily for their citizens, selling it for as little as 7 cents a gallon, a practice that industry experts say fosters wasteful habits."
This is rich! It may be true, but selling it for $3/gallon to Mr and Mrs America fosters wasteful habits too - would they prefer that it be used so Mrs America can drive her darling bubs to school in her SUV, or so Mr America can drive 50 miles to his finance job where he helps the world along with more derivatives scams? Heh :)
I think you'd be very lucky to see anything criticizing "experts" like CERA...
Um.... NZS .... you're obviously not inside the Empire or you'd know that many Empire subjects feel it's extremely unfair that "those ragheads" pay pennies to the dollar of what they spend on gas. That gas "should" be burned up in an American SUV, in America!
And in fact the pennies-per-liter (or gallon) price "those people" pay overseas pay is being used as an argument that we should only pay that here. And this is in the more liberal news sources....
I kind of am in a mini version of the Empire, here... [sigh]
Hi WT,
Appreciation for your contribution and efforts to educate.
re: "real complaint".
Perhaps a short letter-to-the-editor would do the trick. (Just a general suggestion - not meant for you, specifically).
That article ran as the big front page story in my local paper this morning (Times Union of Albany, NY) so it's getting picked up by other papers.
I found it to be a strange article. They kept bouncing back and forth between "OMG, oil producers aren't going to be able to export nearly as much oil in the future! We're in big trouble!", to "But we don't expect there to be any shortages or anything because of that fact, so no big deal".
IMO, one word: editors, but I could be wrong.
WT, I am sorry that you are not getting credit for your work. At least you are secure in the knowledge that those of us that read TOD realize and appreciate your efforts. Thank you.
What else can we expect? If you were an 'Original American' (whoever they were), not only would editor-thieves be stealing your ideas...but your land and resources, killing you and family, trampling on your culture and traditions, and forcing you to learn a language that you didnt need in the past...and then re-writing history to cover their dastardly deeds...While labeling you a heathen to justify the entire process.
Absolutely you should get some credit for the model. At least everyone here knows this is analysis you've been beating the drum about for a long time now.
This is after all the Grande Dame of the news (advertising) business. The same sort who would report of the Emperor with no clothes on, "The Emperor was seen wearing stylish haute couture see thru clothes."
Reminds me of a quote I heard recently:
"It would seem that the Emperor has no clothes, but that nudity is now in fashion".
Here's AFP's version of the story:
Key oil exporters can turn into importers in 10 years: report