<DrumBeat: December 12, 2007The Oil DrumDrumBeat: December 13, 2007>

67 comments on This Week in Petroleum 12-12-07

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Starship Trooper on December 12, 2007 - 11:57am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Good travelling to you Robert.

The Cushing stock build is interesting giving the complexity of the fog, ice, etc.

Life could get interesting if the power isn't restored soon for the terminal and pipelines. Thankfully, gas pipelines are mostly self-powered.

We went through a bad one in NC in 2002 and were without power for a week with the overnight temps in the teens and 20's. Looks like they'll be spared that dose of cold weather immediately following the storm(s).

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Starship Trooper on December 12, 2007 - 2:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

As a follow-on. I noted that the IPM was released this AM. Nothing really earthshaking although the September values showed a liquids increase of 1.1 million bpd. On the oil side of things (C+C) it was just under 1 million bpd increase.

OPEC accounted for about 55% of the overall increase. Iraq and Mexico were standouts at ~300,000 bpd increase over August, as was Saudi Arabia at 200,000 BPD and Russia at 120,000 BPD.

In comparison, the IEA report in October (for September) only noted an increase of 415 Kbpd. This is a significant difference between the two values and maybe the October values from the EIA won't be nearly as large as we've seen from the IEA. However, the EIA came in at 84.9 (all liquids) for September compared to 85.1 for the IEA and this put the two agencies much closer than they had been in a while.

But who knows? And as I write this oil is now passing through $93.

Robert might be sweating a little, just about now.

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Robert Rapier on December 12, 2007 - 3:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

And as I write this oil is now passing through $93.

Robert might be sweating a little, just about now.

I swear, EVERY time I say that I think I will win my bet, oil goes up by $3. That's like the 5th time that's happened. The one time I said I thought I would lose it by the end of the week, oil fell by $3.

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Starship Trooper on December 12, 2007 - 4:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

(Cue the music from JAWS!)

Just when you thought it was safe to ignore the NYMEX comes the $100/barrel fin

Well, the solution is simple:

STOP THINKING!

(Cue bite marks to show only STOP THIN, end of music).

Otherwise, Robert, you might have to shorten your travel by $1000.

I see the NYMEX settlement price was $94.39.

I'm sure the spot market is not far behind.

Hope you appreciate the humor.

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westexas on December 12, 2007 - 3:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It's over $94 now. At the current rate of increase in oil prices--about $1 per hour--we will be over $100 some time tonight.

Seriously, anyone know what is going on?

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Mr Ghawier Downing on December 12, 2007 - 3:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It could mostly be about helicopters.

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Starship Trooper on December 12, 2007 - 4:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes, but are they "black helicopters?"

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R W Reactionary on December 12, 2007 - 5:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Are "black helicopters" a Federally protected class and if so are you allowed to ask?

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MacDuff on December 12, 2007 - 6:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

ugh - is this what a racist sees as humor?

so I guess the answer to your second question is, "no, unless you want to be seen as a racist"

miss the good ole days there RW?

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R W Reactionary on December 13, 2007 - 2:19am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"ugh - is this what a racist sees as humor?"

I suspect that you may be well qualified to answer you own question.

If you believe that the cause of racial harmony is advanced by Government programs that institutionalize and elevate the importance of race, all I can do is shake my head and hope that logic will ultimately prevail.

I do miss the "good ole days"? ... I certainly don't miss yesteryear's overt institutional racism, ... but today's self righteous political correctness is something I could live without.

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LarryCO on December 13, 2007 - 11:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ummmm.....

"Black Helicopters" are black because helps them to not be seen at night.

"Black Ops" are "Black" because they are secret and shouldn't be "seen". Black is hard to see at night.

Are you seriously stupid or was this an attempt at humour that most of us missed?

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Khebab on December 12, 2007 - 3:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

``There are a combination of factors moving prices higher,'' said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York. ``Central banks have reached a consensus to spur growth, which should spur demand. The DOE report showed that consumption is strong despite the high prices, this shows there's been no demand destruction.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aku8N.PbkGfo&refer=h...

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goghgoner on December 12, 2007 - 4:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Heh, heh, just when I thought the R^2 bet was safe. Also from the above article:

The energy markets have been interconnected with the global capital markets for some time now,'' said John Kilduff, vice president of risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. ``The renewed outlook for energy demand has us back in rally mode; $100 is squarely back on the table and within reach before year end.

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Patrick Kerr on December 12, 2007 - 3:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

my take on it is this: the market/trader sentiment resumed bullish tone today, after a few weeks of probing the downside...day to day trading is affected by market news (or "noise" as some would say), short term counter-trends, technicals indicators like overbought/oversold etc....with oil, the overall supply and demand picture will continue re-assert the upward move---thats why we view pullbacks as opportunities...Patrick Kerr of OGF

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rayrick on December 12, 2007 - 9:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Uh... check out the discussion. 25kt remnant low. Looks like a non-factor to me.

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Khebab on December 12, 2007 - 4:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think there is a maximum change per day allowed on the NYMEX, around $5 I believe.

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Starship Trooper on December 12, 2007 - 5:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I just checked:

It's $10/barrel (exception on last day of contract before expiration) on the two front month contracts.

There is also allowance to a 200% expansion of the range depending upon when the trading limit is reached (the market is closed for an hour to allow for an orderly transition to the expanded range except when the limit is reached in the last hour of the trading day, and then the market is closed, except on contract expiration day).

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Euan Mearns on December 12, 2007 - 5:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The land of the free?

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R W Reactionary on December 12, 2007 - 6:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Potentially the land of "lock limit" up / down. However, $10 is one whopper [technical term?] of a daily price movement.

I'm very much a free markets sort, but with margins being what they are, without limits a particularly violent short covering rally [or conversly a liquidation of longs] could mean instant insolvency for half the market and an almost unimaginable cascade of counter party default disasters in OTC derrivatives.

No thanks.

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stiv on December 12, 2007 - 8:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

$10/day is nothing. Good thing they've got a little stopper! I feel safer. Don't you?

Ha Ha.

Plan B anyone? Oh, I mean Plan C.

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beechdriver on December 12, 2007 - 8:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

How about this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/203228.shtml?5day#con...

Olga's new track directly into GOM?

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Gwydion on December 13, 2007 - 9:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Let's hope that storm dumps some rain on the southeast U.S.

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72myz on December 13, 2007 - 1:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Today (13 December 2007 17:20 GMT) Tapis is USD 100.50

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_crude

Lorenzo

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