Hi,

I was messing about the other day with a simple % production/consumption increase/decrease Excel spreadsheet. Just about the only scenarios I could get that did not point to a bleak outcome was an exponential increase in production -impossible- or a massive drop in consumption (bombing campaign?!)

Whenever your ready to publish I'm still chomping at the bit...

Nick.

Net export declines tend to approximate a linear decline, approximately a fixed volume per year, which is an accelerating annual decline rate. I estimate that the top five are going to show a drop of about one mbpd per year in net exports for both 2006 and 2007, which what I expect to more or less see going forward.