324 comments on DrumBeat: December 12, 2007
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324 comments on DrumBeat: December 12, 2007
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GAIA Host Collective
A new Earth and Energy Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
Oil focus shifts eastward
With saskatchewan now in the oil business big time as well as Alberta will Canada become the Saudi Arabia of the north?
Many north of the American border are worried about Canada's reputation at the Bali Conference.
http://www.avaaz.org/en/another_canadian_climate_crime/98.php?cl_tf_sign=1
"International officials and experts have named Canada the worst country in the world on climate change as a result of PM Harper’s climate plan: wreck any chance of an international agreement being reached at the UN summit in Bali this week."
The only way Canada could ever hope to return to pre-Kyoto CO2 emission levels is to shut down the Athabaska Tar Sands. Given the 1.4 million barrels a day production in Alberta and Canada's role as the US biggest foreign supplier, fat chance of that happening.
Now Saskatchewan is thrown into the mix.
Canadians don't have to worry about their reputation. In this distorted world of oil dependency and continuous economic growth, governments of any stripe will prostitute themselves for the next quick fix. All I can say to concerned citizens, suck it up princess.
As the Concerned Citizens of Canada (CCC's) look to the North
and wonder how long the Polar Bear will be sharing the planet.
""So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."
Per Leanan's BBC Article above.
Once again, the Tar Sands are negative EROEI.
Just like BioFuels.
CCC's will likely win the argument but the dilemma facing both PO and climate change is human nature and the current ecomonic system.
It's not easy being green. And no eye-on-the-next-election consumer-driven democratic government is going to risk the short term wrath of its electorate to hit people in the pocket books.
Fort McMurray, a town of 70,000 + people and growing, now generates 8% of Canada's GDP.
Yes, Tar Sands, like BioFuels, are negative EROEI. But at $85 - $99 /barrel oil, who cares? There are a lot of jobs and paycheques reliant on this bonanza.
Polar bears don't vote. They don't buy. They don't sell to the Americans. Three strikes you're out in this strangely ordered world.
And now ConocoPhillips is looking to extract another million barrels / day from this boreal treasure trove.
If I was looking for arctic ice cubes, I would get them now while supplies last. 2013 as a meltdown deadline is a long long way to go.
Yes. If that were the only deadline.
But it's just one of many "problems" exacerbating
the positive feedback loop.
A loop that takes us further away from the Holocene.
It used to be tough being a Dirty Hippy.
Maybe I should think about getting a pin striped suit
now to stay in Contrarian mode.
8D
"Here we go again…. too little, too late and not paying attention enough to the fact that what we are “measuring” took decades to reveal itself.
“That feedback is the key to why the models predict that the Arctic warming is going to be faster,” Zwally said. “It’s getting even worse than the models predicted.”
http://survivalacres.com/wordpress/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_ar...
Good to see the Catholic Church hasn't changed through the centuries.
From Wikipedia:
I'm not one to defend the Pope, but I think that is a hatchet job by an anti-AGW paper. They are attempting to spin the pope as being a denier, although he has previously said acting on GW is a "moral obligation".
In fact, he may have been criticising deniers in his speech. This Pope is perhaps too circumspect and is easily misinterpreted, he had trouble before with "words taken out of context", and had to do a lot of smoothing over. He needs to get the hang of soundbites...
In all fairness to the pope, he's not saying anything that most of us haven't said ourselves: base findings on evidence, don't base evidence on 'a priori' conclusions.
"Prudence does not mean failing to accept responsibilities and postponing decisions; it means being committed to making joint decisions after pondering responsibly the road to be taken."
Some people get their knickers in a knot whenever the pope says anything. Chill folks.
It is helpful at times to be reminded that within any discussion, agendas will be at work, hyperbole will be used to defend entrenced positions, charlatans and self-learned experts will add their two cents worth, and the picture that emerges may be distorted and incomplete. Intelligence means shifting beyond shrill rhetoric and ideological opinion to grasp, even if half-blindly, what makes sense.
In the discussion on climate change, five significant questions frame the debate:
1) how is the world's climate changing? (the question "if" is mute since climate is always changing)
2) should we be worried about these changes?
3) are human beings a factor in this present change?
4) how big is the human factor in the change? and,
5) can anything be done about it?
Where I hold out little hope is in the last question. I agree with an assessment made elsewhere, we humans rank right up there with yeast when it comes to making smart choices.
Sometimes problems don't have solutions. They simply have to be endured.
is that a "can" or a "will" you have little hope for? if there is a will then there is something we can do about it.
Just wait to see when Fuckabee gets elected and joins the club..
Actions speak louder than words...
Vatican agrees to a carbon offset scheme
By Elisabeth Rosenthal Published: September 3, 2007
TISZAKESZI, Hungary: This summer the cardinals at the Vatican accepted an unusual donation from a Hungarian start-up called Klimafa: The company said it would plant trees to restore an ancient forest on a denuded island by the Tizsa River to offset the Vatican's carbon emissions.
The young trees, on a 15-hectare, or 37-acre, tract of land that will be renamed the "Vatican Climate Forest" will in theory absorb as much carbon dioxide as the Vatican makes through its various activities in 2007: driving cars, heating offices, lighting St. Peters Basilica at night.
In so doing, the Vatican announced, it would become the world's first carbon-neutral state.
"As the Holy Father, Pope Benedict XVI, recently stated, the international community needs to respect and encourage a 'green culture,' " said Cardinal Paul Poupard, head of the Pontifical Council for Culture, who took part in a ceremony marking the event at the Vatican. "The Book of Genesis tell us of a beginning in which God placed man as guardian over the earth to make it fruitful."
The Vatican, which has recently made an effort to go green on its own by installing solar panels, sought to set an example by offsetting its carbon emissions.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/09/03/business/carbon.php
Which would be impressive, if it weren't laughably wrong:
Accordingly, all oil sands, from production to refining, represent 1.5% of Canada's GDP, meaning Ft. McMurray's share is likely under 1%.
So you're off by about an order of magnitude. Is it that hard to fact-check before making wild claims?
Yikes! I stand corrected.
Though I think my point remains valid. Canadian political leadership is not likely to let climate change interfere with the Alberta oil boom. Too much at stake with oil security and economic prosperity.
And polar bears still don't vote, don't buy, and don't sell anything to the Americans.
What would be interesting is to simply take these numbers and figure Per Capita GDP for those 70,000 inhabitants(or more in the future) based on projected oil-sands production. Versus the rest of the Canadian population.
I heard Robert Redford, Nicole Kidman, and Donald Trump are buying up luxury real-estate in the area. Could be the next Boca Raton.
I think oil-sands production is slated for 3.5 million barrels in ten or twenty years.
In the short run, I haven't seen much upside to my tar sands pure-play stock purchses.
However, there is also the massive expenditures to expand oil sands production. Construction is also GDP.
But I doubt the 8% figure as well. Today. Wait till 2015 :-)
Alan
According to the latest Coca-Cola commercial, Polar Bears and Penguins get along marvelously. Since the Antarctic isn't melting down nearly so much, let's just relocate them there!
/sarcanol
Post some real credible scientific numbers that show that? I call BS. In addition read up on the THAI method on the oil sands, its gonna send the EROEI through the roof.
FYI, still calling for depression by Christmas?
Edited by Leanan to fix bad HTML. Dude, don't use HTML if you don't know how.
I agree on this one - if the tar sands were purely transformational they wouldn't be worked as they are. EROI stinks, to be sure, but it is positive.
And the jury is out on THAI - sounds really cool, but previous similar efforts have had trouble controlling the process. I'm hopeful, but we have to see long term proof that it works as well as has been advertised.
Postive, negative - If only the tar-sands equation could be reduced to a single scalar. What value is pure, fresh water?
If it weren't for all that stranded gas, it wouldn't be happening, would it?
antidoomer - it's Depression for a lot of people now.
Of course, people have fallen on hard times all throughout history in the best of times, but we both know Mcgonanow was referring to this kind of depression:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_%28economics%29
That's what I mean. That's what we're starting into. Just sit tight and wait, it will take serious SSRIs to keep doped up enough to deny it in the first quarter of 2008.
fleam, IMO you've touched on something important. I think it's possible that one reason the US and OECD countries stopped worrying about risk in the 2000's was the widespread availability of anti-depressant/anxiolytic drugs. IMO the drug companies were an important part of the "don't worry, be happy" machine.
If I'm right, once PO and economic contraction reduce the number of anti-depressants available to the investing class, a lotta people are gonna FREAK.
PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami
In 20 years I suspect historians (if we have enough civilization left to have historians then) will place the start of the Greater Depression in the first quarter of 2001. If you properly account for inflation, the US economy has only had one quarter (1Q04) with positive GDP growth, and growth that quarter was anemic at less than 0.5%. To follow the numbers go to http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/data.
Now, it hasn't felt like a depression all that time, but I agree wtih Antidoomer we shouldn't just go on feelings. By Antidoomer's Wikipedia link, a recession is 2 negative quarters in a row. I think 27 negative quarters out of 28 counts technically as a depression.
Greenspan started lowering rates aggressively in 1Q01, because unlike the happy talk and fudged numbers of the US government & the financial industry, he knew what was happening and was trying to address it. Unfortunately for us & posterity, he chose to create a consumer debt-driven spending bubble that allowed us to spend like mad despite being in a depression. Wars don't get fought when the economy is bad, and Republicans do need to win elections.
Now the jig is up. The debt bubble has popped like a festering boil and consumer spending (70% of the economy) is going down the tubes. Creating more debt (the only solution the Fed has, really) cannot fix a debt crisis. It can only draw it out, while making the final reckoning even worse.
I think to be an antidoomer these days you really have to drink the happy-talk/fudged-numbers coolaid the government is passing out. In reality, it's worse than you think, and it's going to get worse even than that.
I'm not calling it the Greater Depression, I'm calling it the Great Decline. Slower, but more inexorable, and much longer, with no return to growth at the end.
Unfortunately, his numbers don't track at all well with reality.
Median wage - what the average guy gets paid - has gone up only about 10% in the last 15 years. If the shadowstats guy is right, Joe Average's purchasing power is only 60% of what it was in the early 90s, even accounting for the higher rate of borrowing.
If people lose 40% of their purchasing power, we'd expect them to spend a little less on necessities (food, housing, clothes, etc.) and much less on luxuries; instead, we find that the proportion spent on food has been slowly dropping in the US, and that overall spending by category is practically unchanged over the last 15 years.
Official government statistics are that Joe Average has seen his purchasing power increase by about 10%. Shadowstats would tell us that Joe's purchasing power has dropped by 40%, even with higher borrowing.
Joe's spending habits are consistent with slightly higher wealth.
Reality doesn't agree with the shadowstats guy, no matter how much he tells you what you want to hear.
Can you please site the stats/graphs you are referencing - it would be nice to know what you are basing your analysis on...
Just his own page on inflation ("consumer price index"): http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=343
"Inflation, as reported by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is understated by roughly 7% per year."
"In particular, changes made in CPI methodology...have reduced current social security payments by roughly half from where they would have been otherwise."
i.e., he claims inflation is 100% higher than what's stated.
Median income information is from here via here.
I can't find the spending patterns link I used last time, but this one gives %ile data for the US, and is pretty similar - proportion spent on food declined from 17% in 1984 to 15% in 2003.
All I'm doing is taking his inflation number and applying it to the census data on income. If he says the CPI is twice what the government says it is. That means each dollar - after being adjusted for government levels of inflation - can buy only half of what the government says it can. That means the 10% increase in (government-inflation-adjusted) income the census reports, plus the 7% extra from lower rates of saving, would give the median earner only 60% of the purchasing power he had in ~1990.
Please, be my guest to check any of my numbers or references. All I'm doing is making explicit the claim his numbers implicitly make - that average Americans can afford barely more than half what they could 15-20 years ago.
Do you take into account the increase in personal debt? How much of today's spending power is based on getting into debt?
PDF warning
http://www.statcan.ca/english/freepub/75-001-XIE/comm/11.pdf
Yes - that's "the 7% extra from lower rates of saving" I referred to.
Basically, saving rates have fallen over that span from ~5% to ~-2%, which means people are spending ~7% more of their income than they were before. You can see the same thing in your link - US rates of income expenditure have risen from ~88% in the late 80s to ~95% now.
and do you have some real credible scientific numbers that thai will even work ? a pilot project does not a regional process prove.
Of course they're negative EROEI.
The Athabaska River is being destroyed.
The NatGas of Alberta is being used up in the Tar Sands.
The N third of Alberta is being turned into Moonscape.
The word ECOnomy comes from Eco-the Environment.
Does anyone here imagine that any monies will be spent to restore anything in N Alberta?
That right there shows the Negative EROEI.
As we leave Moonscape wherever we "need" a National Sacrifice Area we seal our fate.
Brazil's just as bad Canada, so do't feel slighted here.
8D
Anyone interested in the details:
http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/2006/06035flannery/index.htm
So does this put off peak oil? Likely hyped up as such.
Richard Wakefield
Nope
Someone else recently mentioned a permeability of 0.04 millidarcies. Whether that was for only a specfic region or in general for the entire system, I know not!
I was thinking that the ultratight rock in the Bakken play (good oil BTW) might seep out of the rocks for centuries.
Drill a well, frac it, get a gush of near well bore oil, and then just sit back and get a stripper well (say half dozen barrels/day) for L*O*N*G time. For the PetE's out there, is that reasonable ?
Thanks,
Alan
the bakken has been productive in the williston basin for at least 30 yrs, starting about the mid '80's the play was drilled using horizontal wells, the initial idea being to intersect as many vertical fractures as possible. that worked to an extent but the main technological improvement has been massive fracturing of the horizontal well.
a typical bakken well (vertical or horizontal) experiences a steep initial decline, followed by a long steady decline at a much lower rate.
in the late '80 burlington resources did an extensive study of the economics of horizontal drilling in the bakken. i am sure this paper is archived in the spe somewhere. at that time, given the low oil price, the play was only economical for companies like burlington who already owned the minerals.
much has changed, including the price of oil and improvements in technology.
a similar play is developing in the powder river and big horn basin in the mowry shale.
and to answer the original poster's question, imo there is a lot of oil to be produced in these and similar plays, unfortunately too little too late to avert po.
Alan, I had an exchange with a very Bakken experienced oilfield geologist on FreeRepublic.
What he told me was that the play as ElwoodElmore described is based on very long laterals or up to mile long horizontal deviations intersecting natural factures, but mostly in the sandy / carbonate stringers intervals between the two major shale layers that define the formation. Keeping out of the heart of the shale was in his opinion critical.
He stated that the Bakken's shales typically do not fluoresce under black light, but do stream at least some oil when broken and submerged in solvent. He made no mention of gas [and I did not follow up] but it did not sound like the wells were making large volumes of gas, which left me wondering what moves the oil to the wellbore. Gravity won't get you much.
That discussion was about a article on the high level of drilling activity around the town of Parsal [spelling] which amounted to half the rigs currently drilling in North Dakota.
The well that was the center of interest was estimated to have reserves of 700,000 barrels and an initial flow rate of 2,000 barrels per day but that for 640 acre spacing so only one well per square mile. And at 700,000 barrels and an initial of 2,000 the initial flush production must be a large percentage of the ultimate recovery.
There are a lot of square miles of this prospect, but I wonder how much of it is anything like the area around Parsal.
Trying to frac a mile of hole??? My guess is that the operators are relying on the previously mentioned natural fracturing, and various natural other porosity / permiability streaks. Time [and a lot of investment] will tell.
well, if you are really interested in hydraulic fracturing technology in the bakken, the denver section of spe has presented some papers, pttc has done a workshop on the subject. i was not able to cut and paste a link, but these results are from a google search "bakken hydraulic fracturing"
and i'm no expert on the subject, but the mile of hole is not all fractured at once, relying on stage techniques ( ball sealers, rock salt, benzoic acid flakes or fine mesh sand as a diverter). since the induced fractures propagate vertically, a 30 ' frac height is not really a problem.
Thanks. I will take a look.