<Peak Oil, Peak Food, Peak Risk The Oil DrumDrumBeat: January 10, 2008>

298 comments on Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008

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PeakPlus on January 10, 2008 - 5:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The rent-buy spread is out of whack for sure.

Well, I hate to burst *your* bubble, while the housing bubble fails to bust, meaning it's only fissling out a little air..

The above chart, in and of itself shows NOTHING. Sorry - instead, it has to be compared to interest rates. Just like stock valuation is a function of what one can get in interest on the market...

1st, interest rates:

Does the curve seem familiar??

2nd, let's superimpose interest with rent returns:

In order to try to figure out what "normal" is, let's say that interest rates and rents were "normal" during the middle of the 1990s and superimpose the two graphs again:

Conclusion: Housing in America is NOT that much overpriced. Falling rent rates (and rising house prices) are much a result of the semi price deflationary environment we are in.

Cheers, Dom

ps. The scenario which Gale is presenting WILL NOT happen in 2008. Bubbles will only burst, once liquidity dries up. Does that look like it has happened recently?

Guys, please read Clif
And weep at how wrong you are.

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goritsas on January 10, 2008 - 5:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Dom, please read Mish,

Money Supply Trends Are Deflationary

and see how wrong you are.

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PeakPlus on January 10, 2008 - 6:19am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

had read it, wasn't convinced.

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goritsas on January 10, 2008 - 7:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Oddly enough, Clif failed to bring tears to my eyes. Oh well, you can lead a horse to water, and all that.

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PeakPlus on January 10, 2008 - 8:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

:-)

I've been following the argumentation of the bears since long before the height of the dot.com boom. Since 2003 I've been following the real estate bubble. Told my brother to sell his apt. in DC after doubling price in just two years WAY too early. But that's no problem, cause you can hardly ever catch the peak of any bubble.

Wondered with Thurow SIX YEARS AGO, when the American house of cards (deficite spending, zero savings, etc..) is going
to crash and burn. Now I know why America's deficite spending, etc.. will continue to work for a good while !!!

Found McKillop 4 years ago - he said price rises in oil are GOOD for the overall economy (where there are most certainly losers). And what has happen in the last 4 years???

Peak Oil will be a real problem for America and the world. But not until production fall more than 1-2% per year. My analysis goes deap and can hardly be explained on the quick.

But my conclusion is: America's problems *probably* won't really start for another couple of years. Comparing now to the 1970s, we haven't even reached 1973, let alone the recesion of 1980..

Cheers from Munich,
Dom

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ET on January 10, 2008 - 2:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Found McKillop 4 years ago - he said price rises in oil are GOOD for the overall economy (where there are most certainly losers). And what has happen in the last 4 years???

McKillop said that within limits higher oil prices are GOOD for the overall economy. I don't have specific links, but as I recall his analysis led him to posit that around $100/bbl we would see the breaking point at which the benefits of higher price began to give away to the overall pressure that peak oil would exert on worldwide economy. Guess what???

I have never been impressed with Cliff Droke.

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PeakPlus on January 10, 2008 - 4:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

and if *I* recall correctly, his "within limits" had nothing to do with an absolute price, but with a shock or no shock. There has been no shock. Just price movement within a rising channel (left and came back in).

For me its obvious. High or rising resource prices make money flow - first to those who have the resources, but then to all the countries in the way of the flowing money. The end of the river is the US once again. The Euro-pond is not big enough to soak it all up yet, and that's why the Euro has been rising.

It is a ponzi game and will crash. But I think we're still a couple of years away. Unless, of course, there is some sort of shock. And I don't think this "housing bust" in slow motion is going to do the job - especially if the idea of bad valuation (see graphs above) doesn't stick. Rents are absolutely lower - but not relatively!!

No one said you have to like Clif.

But here's the point of Contrarian thinking: If the whole world is wining about the stock markets about to crash, and only a correction of 10% is in the game, then obvious the market does not agree with the "fear in the air". If everyone is saying it will fall, and it doesn't, then it will rise!

But this is only one very small part of the puzzle. After this decade, for instance, demographics are going to hit America like a sledge hammer! And like I'll say again and again, falling oil production of 1-2% will take a long time to do its damage. 4% (what I think will be after about 2015) will be another sledge hammer!

FWIW..

Greetings from Munich,
Dom

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electric_future on January 10, 2008 - 6:28am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The problem arises when the cost of "investing" in a property is way beyond the income available. It appears that many of the creative mortgages involved fraud, and there is simply no way of paying back the borrowed money or intent to do so. Hence, the destruction of credit- deflation.

The rent/price ratio is fairly reliable as it adjusts for both price and wage inflation- of which there has been remarkably little.

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