and if *I* recall correctly, his "within limits" had nothing to do with an absolute price, but with a shock or no shock. There has been no shock. Just price movement within a rising channel (left and came back in).

For me its obvious. High or rising resource prices make money flow - first to those who have the resources, but then to all the countries in the way of the flowing money. The end of the river is the US once again. The Euro-pond is not big enough to soak it all up yet, and that's why the Euro has been rising.

It is a ponzi game and will crash. But I think we're still a couple of years away. Unless, of course, there is some sort of shock. And I don't think this "housing bust" in slow motion is going to do the job - especially if the idea of bad valuation (see graphs above) doesn't stick. Rents are absolutely lower - but not relatively!!

No one said you have to like Clif.

But here's the point of Contrarian thinking: If the whole world is wining about the stock markets about to crash, and only a correction of 10% is in the game, then obvious the market does not agree with the "fear in the air". If everyone is saying it will fall, and it doesn't, then it will rise!

But this is only one very small part of the puzzle. After this decade, for instance, demographics are going to hit America like a sledge hammer! And like I'll say again and again, falling oil production of 1-2% will take a long time to do its damage. 4% (what I think will be after about 2015) will be another sledge hammer!

FWIW..

Greetings from Munich,
Dom