The Oil Drum

if it is not possible for the right circumstances to occur for "the masses" to be herded in a new, different, and nondestructive direction?

LOL at the meme shift in our own TOD herd.

Many snow melts ago, when I first started dropping comments into the flowing river of TOD thoughts, I suspect I was considered a lunatic kook. The discussions were all about Hubbert curve trajectories and deep drill oil extractions.

I started suggesting that we humans might be "herd" animals who operate on the basis of irrational "sound" logic, and thus, that the convincing of the "masses" about the dangers of Peak Oil may be a difficult task. After all, their eyes glaze over when you start talking PO.

Now it has become fashionable and acceptable here to talk about ourselves as being "herded" and guided by a good shepherd.

How times have changed.

Let me add one more complication to the dopamine level analysis presented by Nate Hagens (excellent job Nate): mental model building.

We humans never experience the "real world". Instead we build complex models inside our brains of what the world outside is most probably like. We use these models to predict likely outcome. If a model continues to fail miserably (but we nonetheless managed to survive), we either modify our model to better fit with observations or we modify our observations. (Example: Take Yergin's model of the infinite global oil pool as modified by new observations of "above ground" contingencies and the consequential undulating plateaus.)

A good shepherd has to first appreciate the existing models in the herd's brains before he can try to slowly remold those models into new ones that will lead to better behavior.

What are the major models that run in our heads?
You already know:

1. Money and economics.
2. Group status, popularity and group acceptance.
3. Fitting in with the norm (being "mainstream")
4. Modeling ourselves and our fellow species mates as being "rational" creatures
5. (you fill in some more)

We have many times talked about the cognitive dissonance that occurs when we leave these Oil Drum pages and step into the "real" world. The people "out there" are going about with their normal lives; driving SUV's, buying stock options, getting rich, getting powerful, becoming "successful" in the eyes of their peers, voting for "change", voting for "conservatism", clapping their hands and stomping their hooves in unison at political "conventions" because they are with the "winners" and not the losers.

It's all part of how our herd models the world.