From what I've read we've been drawing down worldwide grain reserves 6 years running. There isn't much hope for a turn around due to drought and global climate change.

It's one thing to find a super-giant oil field and spend the next 20 years using more oil than one finds. But that doesn't work with food. If enough food isn't grown then soon people start to die.
I've not seen grain prices go up but I buy local organic stone ground oats and hard wheat. It's already at least 2x as expensive and decoupled from ethanol / world reserves and distribution.