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48 comments on Electric Politics: Al Bartlett says "The Die is Cast"
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48 comments on Electric Politics: Al Bartlett says "The Die is Cast"
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GAIA Host Collective
No.
The United States' 300 million people use more reosurces and cause more pollution than the 1,200 million people of India. The 21 million people of Australia use more resources and cause more pollution than the 160 million people of Pakistan.
The problem, then, is not the population, but how much each person uses or pollutes. The world could take 20 billion people living like Indians, but could not take 2 billion living like Australians.
It's telling that talk of population control generally comes from the prosperous West, and more telling still that it's appearing again now that India and China's economies are growing. I think there's a bit of reasoning going on here, "If only those pesky darkies would stop breeding, then I could enjoy my burgers and SUV forever without trouble. They could at least stop wanting burgers and SUVs, too."
The problem isn't how many people there are, but the resources those people use and the pollution they cause. It's lifestyle, not how many babies you have.
"The problem isn't how many people there are, but the resources those people use and the pollution they cause. It's lifestyle, not how many babies you have."
You obviously do not understand the exponential function.
The problem IS how many babies are born into the world regardless of their average lifestyle. Even if for example we accept your statement that the world could sustain 20 billion people living an Indian lifestyle it can't sustain 40 billion living the that same lifestyle. Population growth is not sustainable on a finite planet, doesn't matter how much you wish it were so.
Yes, if only those annoying darkies would just stop having so many babies we could all keep eating our burgers and driving our SUVs. It's very inconsiderate of them to have babies. It's even more inconsiderate of them to want a life of eating burgers and driving SUVs.
Life was much easier when they knew their place as people who'd work for tuppence a day sending us raw materials which we could sell back to them at inflated prices as manufactured goods.
Insolent darkies!
There's a wealthy couple, dual income no kids, who live in a nice house on a quiet street, and each week they put out two garbage bins, and have so much garbage that they actually have to sneak it into their neighbour's bin, using a third of the four between the two houses. Their neighbours are a big sprawling family of two parents, an old grandma, an uncle and his wife, and six kids. This family produces two bins of garbage a week. So sometimes they come to fill up their bin and find the wealthy couple have snuck their rubbish in first, and sometimes the wealthy couple comes and finds their neighbour's bin full.
The wealthy couple thus conclude that the real problem is that their neighbours have too many kids. "If only they'd stop having children, then they'd have spare bin space for us to put our extra rubbish into. It's very inconsiderate of them. Don't they understand the exponential function?"
Two people use three bins, and eleven people use two bins, and there are only four bins between them. Obviously those eleven people have got to stop having so many children!
Or maybe, you know, those two people could produce less rubbish, coming down to a fair share.
The world was so much better when we had everything and those darkies had nothing, wasn't it? We could have lived the same way forever! Of course, it wouldn't be so good for them, but they're just ignorant darkies pumping out children, they're stupid and don't deserve better.
Let's not kid ourselves. This is a race issue. Middle class white people are too caught up in our culture of gathering possessions and indulging in hedonistic sex to want to reproduce. For every middle class woman who is voluntarily childless, there is an illegal immigrant family that has four.
Overpopulation is world problem, not a race problem or a national problem. If every nation on earth had the population density of India, there would be preciously little rainforest or even dry forest left on earth.
The Bengal Tiger, along with every other wild species in India will soon be extinct. India's water tables are dropping so fast that many towns are being evacuated because they have no water. India, along with Bangladesh, Pakastan and China are perhaps the most overpopulated countries on earth. Their rivers are drying up, their water tables are dropping by meters per year and, especially in China, their topsoil is either blowing away or being washed away. China is losing 1,400 Square Miles to desert each year!
Most African countries are overpopulated. The Sahara desert is expanding by thousands of square miles per year. One country alone, Nigeria, is losing 1,355 square miles to desertification each year. Same URL as above:
A racial problem My Ass! It is a population problem pure and simple. Simply by pointing out how much more energy the US uses, per capita, you cannot turn a devastating population problem int a racial problem. True, we use far more than our fair share of energy, but the vast overpopulation problem of the world is devastating the habitat of the people that live in those countries.
Ron Patterson
Oh for Crikey's sake what does any of what you are saying have to do with the arithmetic of the exponential function. Talk about setting up a straw man. Or is it a darkie man?
Nature doesn't give a rodent's anal orifice whether you run the experiment with bacteria in a petri dish or on the planet with human beings. Theoretically it should even work with little green men with purple antennae. When the nutrients run out the growing population crashes end of story.
For fun you might get your self a chessboard and put one grain of rice on the first square then put two on the second square then four on the third keep doubling the number of grains until you get to the last square and let me know how many grains you end up with. Cheers.
Differential resource access between the overdeveloped and underdeveloped nations is a "hard problem" (a phrase apparently used by physicists to indicate a problem that's insoluble).
It's not intrinsically a race problem, and those who mention it are generally just commenting on observed facts with no value judgment implied. The fact that the overdeveloped nations are predominantly of white European ancestry while the underdeveloped nations are not, of course leaves us open to such charges on the basis that "commenting is condoning" or some such foolishness.
However, to view the world as a single undifferentiated mass of people (or a single mass of aggregated consumption) is less useful than an analysis that factors in the situations of individual nations as well as the role of national boundaries. I like to think of national boundaries as cell walls. A cell has relatively full control over what goes on inside them, but the transmission of information and resources across a cell wall or national boundary to influence neighboring cells is highly regulated and flows are restricted.
Thus when someone says "We grow enough food to feed everyone int he world, the problem is one of distribution," or "There is enough energy produced on earth today to give everyone 2.5 KW" they are ignoring the fundamental constraints imposed by the way the world we have created actually works. We ignore those issues at our peril. Recognizing them isn't racist, it's realistic.
Acknowledging that overpopulation is a problem does not mean we think it's the only problem. And acknowledging that it's a problem doesn't mean we endorse coercive means of population control.
What you are assuming is that the couple in question actually wanted six kids. I don't think there should be mandatory limits on childbearing (at either end of the spectrum, which is why I'm vociferously pro-choice). But we have had the ability to reduce unintended pregnancies by a factor of 1000 for the past 50 years (the pill, in addition to more recent birth control advances). The fact that we have not made the ability to control family size a basic human right is racist, classist, and a gross human rights abuse.
If you truly want six children, (for your own reasons and not because of religious or social pressures) I won't argue with you. And I won't do anything that would limit your free choice. I will certainly do everything I can to give you and your children the highest quality of life possible.
But what we're ignoring is that a good proportion of our population growth is due to unaffordable and unwanted pregnancies (in every class and in every race). I think all people of conscience would support reducing this burden on women and families.
I do understand the fear of eugenics. The US has a shameful history in this area. If there must be mandatory limits on growth, they should be on consumption. But we have an opportunity to decrease the stress on the planet AT THE SAME TIME as enhancing human rights, and cutting off discussion before we even have a chance to state our proposals is not helpful.
People might be interested in seeing what is happening to fertility rates worldwide.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_fertil...
Remember that a fertility rate of 2.11 is replacement rate. With that in mind, look how many countries are not replacing their dying citizens.
And look how fertility rates are falling world wide.
Simplistic statements like this ignore several inconvenient facts. Yes, fertility rates are falling world-wide. But:
To me this set of facts adumbrates a looming demographic catastrophe.
And where are these birth rates falling? It's directly proportionate to access to birth control and health care. People are willing (even eager) to control the size of their families, what they are lacking is the necessary tools.
"Birth control: the biggest silver BB"
The world could take 20 billion people living like Indians, but could not take 2 billion living like Australians.
Actually not quite true. 2 billion would mark the estimated upper limit of population sustainable at Western standards, but is not unsustainable.
Source: Optimum Human Population Size
Gretchen C. Daily University of California (Berkeley) Anne H. Ehrlich and Paul R. Ehrlich Stanford University (July 1994)
That presumes 3 kW per capita consumption from 12kw according to the article.
Well, I screwed up, I meant to reply to your comment and replied to someone else's instead. Here's the text again, sorry about the repost.
Acknowledging that overpopulation is a problem does not mean we think it's the only problem. And acknowledging that it's a problem doesn't mean we endorse coercive means of population control.
What you are assuming is that the couple in question actually wanted six kids. I don't think there should be mandatory limits on childbearing (at either end of the spectrum, which is why I'm vociferously pro-choice). But we have had the ability to reduce unintended pregnancies by a factor of 1000 for the past 50 years (the pill, in addition to more recent birth control advances). The fact that we have not made the ability to control family size a basic human right is racist, classist, and a gross human rights abuse.
If you truly want six children, (for your own reasons and not because of religious or social pressures) I won't argue with you. And I won't do anything that would limit your free choice. I will certainly do everything I can to give you and your children the highest quality of life possible.
But what we're ignoring is that a good proportion of our population growth is due to unaffordable and unwanted pregnancies (in every class and in every race). I think all people of conscience would support reducing this burden on women and families.
I do understand the fear of eugenics. The US has a shameful history in this area. If there must be mandatory limits on growth, they should be on consumption. But we have an opportunity to decrease the stress on the planet AT THE SAME TIME as enhancing human rights, and cutting off discussion before we even have a chance to state our proposals is not helpful.
i like that kiashu -- 20 billion starving indians.
Indians aren't starving.
India has not had a mass famine since independence.
You'd have 4 billion impoverished and not very happy but fed Indians, 14 billion Indians getting by, and 2 billion Indians who live like middle-classed Westerners do today.
I realise that it can be difficult for a Westerner to grasp, but other countries aren't uniform, aren't the same all the way through.
We would do well to understand things the way you have framed them. The exponential problem is twofold. Population and lifestyle.
(So much for the "all that people have to do is adopt western lifestyles and fertility rates will come down problem solved" hypothesis)In my view western lifestyle is the larger immediate problem over population.
Now that billions of Indian, Chinese and others are on the verge of copying 'western' standards of consumption the alarm bell sounds. Where was that sense of urgency before? Malthus, The Club of Rome and Ehrlich had warned us but we paid little mind. Since competition for resources today has reached critical levels it's a crisis.
That will continue until all 'western lifestylers' throttle back on overconsumption and fertility rates worldwide decrease further. Failure at either end means failure of the system.