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13 comments on New SEC Concept Floated to Change Way E&P Companies Book Reserves

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garyp on December 19, 2007 - 7:50am

Since the proposed revised rules are good for oil companies, there is scope for a quid pro quo. I'd suggest:

1) No unrealisable reserves growth numbers. Fix it so that the booked number is good for real technology and make clear the expect growth is very low. Playing games with numbers with no physical basis should be a hanging offence - we need good public figures.

2) Book the expected production rates, not just reserves. Different fields have different characteristics and its no good saying "your reserves are X billion so you can borrow Y billion against it" if the production rate is so slow that you could never pay back the credit in reasonable time. In other words shift from a reserves only figure to a production rate figure that is much more useful in future difficult fields. That would help to mitigate the silly numbers on oil shales.

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plucky underdog on December 19, 2007 - 8:30am

One last post. One last post. One last post.

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Gary,

That was my knee-jerk reaction as well. On reflection, I think this approach is open to criticism...

Fix it so that the booked number is good for real technology and make clear the expect growth is very low

Nice idea in principle, but does anyone know what percentage of world oil and gas reserves are subject to SEC regulation? My SWAG would be in the 15% range. Aramco et al aren't answerable to regulators, and will continue to do what they want.

its no good saying "your reserves are X billion ... if the production rate is so slow that you could never pay back the credit in reasonable time.

I think that applies de facto now. The public and the op-ed scribblers might be fooled by the SEC's machinations; loan officers at commercial banks serving the energy sector are generally a bit more shrewd.

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Got them Bulletproof Car Waiting Outside Blues. Gotta head for the airport and back to my cold dark country of origin. Feliz Navidad y Prospero Año a todos. Looking forward to a white-knuckle ride in 2008.

See y'all at $150,

The Plucky Underdog
Entropy's Janitor

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garyp on December 19, 2007 - 8:52am

...loan officers at commercial banks serving the energy sector are generally a bit more shrewd

Hmm, evidence of the current, ongoing, credit debacle suggests they have less smarts than man on the street - seduced by big numbers and unwilling to do the work to look behind them.

As for the rest of the world not reporting to the same standards, need to take it one step at a time. First get your own house in order, then lean on the 'state secrets' crowd to be more open (probably via the UN). Hell, with the information that countries have you could probably get a good real world estimate without their cooperation - and then publishing it would shame them.

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Will on December 19, 2007 - 1:05pm

Hmm, evidence of the current, ongoing, credit debacle suggests they have less smarts than man on the street...

You might want to watch the link on money that Cherenkov posted yesterday. It's a bit long, but both entertaining and quite informative.

My take has changed on the sub-prime debacle since watching that link. If you buy into the notion that debt must continue relentlessly to drive capital markets then it's easier to see why the banks and funds went into sub-prime fairy-land. They had no other place to make loans. The U.S. has exported it's industrial base and a great deal of it's middle class jobs. Investing in China has significant repatriation issues.

So we are where we are. And the water is cold and deep.

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