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240 comments on DrumBeat: December 19, 2007

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Flavius Aetius on December 19, 2007 - 10:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

A question to West Texas: Dr. Duncan in his Olduvai Valley theory predicts a "crossover point" when OPEC supplies over 50% of the world's production. He was focused on total production, and not necessarily on what was actually available for export. So, when will OPEC exports represent 50% or more of the world's exportable crude oil?

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westexas on December 19, 2007 - 10:35am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

We are probably about there right now in terms of their share of total net exports, but I think that OPEC as an organization is pretty much irrelevant.

Regarding oil supplies, I suspect that Richard Duncan is actually on the optimistic side, because of the ELM effects. See my post down the thread.

As several people have noted, we appear to be facing a triple play threat next year--Peak Debt; Peak Food and Peak Exports.

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240 comments on DrumBeat: December 19, 2007

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