Ilargi;
I am not econ-literate, but my impression of this question is akin to giving a swimmer a 5-pound weight for each hand, and figuring out which one will drag him down.

That said, I don't disparage the Finance and Econ discussions here. Gives me a lot I can freely scroll past, grateful that someone else want to take on that conversation.

Bob

'The 'Division of Labor' might soon have to include addition and multiplication as well' (Mandelbrot could probably use the abundance of 'Imaginary Numbers' to come up with some proper chaos equations, too.)

OK, I'll bite.

I think that peak oil will be shrouded in a cloud of noise, not necessarily deliberate disinformation but noise. Much the way a newly formed star is shrouded by clouds of dust and gas.

There will be shortages of various materials here and there, the weakening dollar will not allow us 'Murkans to outbid the world, China and India will be using too much. It will be the fault of the refinery shutdowns, or greedy oil companies, or insurgents blowing up tankers or pipelines. It'll be the rusting infrastructure of oil transport.

Meanwhile the financial crisis we've created has been discussed to death in the financial press. We have a decent idea of how it got started, who is getting bailed out, and why, etc. Peak oil will be a backdrop against which the financial and political drama is played next year, but will go largely unrecognized as the single most important factor in the declining economy.