119 comments on Peak Oil Update - December 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
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Er.... so what happened to the new all-liquids peak that was discussed here a couple of weeks ago?
Sorry if I'm being a bit thick - is it just that the figures have been revised, or Khebab uses different sources for his data?
Thanks, Chris
The new peak for October (all liquids) is based on the IEA data for which the front month is November, see Stuart post for an in depth discussion:
Does the latest IEA number matter?
The problem with the IEA is that they give only limited public data (only the three last months) and it's difficult to track revisions whereas the EIA can revise its monthly estimates up to three years.
The EIA Short Term Energy outlook (STEO) has also preliminary estimates for October and November:
October: 85.96 mbpd
November: 85.61 mbpd
Trailing v Forward
The world's cereal stocks to use ratio
is even farther behind the curve.
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/soy/chicago_wheat_futures_market....
That IEA (Monthly Oil Market Report) peak for November 2007 (86.55 mb/d) - in comparison to the July 2006 peak (86.13 mb/d)- has been created by:
(1) an extra 180 kb/d of processing gains - freshly added in the December 2007 monthly report
(2) an additional 310 kb/d (=460 kb/d - 150 kb/d) bio fuels