 | Grading My 2007 Energy Resolutions | The Oil Drum | Peak Oil Update - December 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers |  |
180 comments on DrumBeat: December 29, 2007
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180 comments on DrumBeat: December 29, 2007
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"My question for 2008 -- can human intelligence come up with something better?"
We function best in small groups and "something better" will need to incorporate that part of our psyche. If we do succeed in establishing something better, the trick would be to keep it from devolving back to globalism and corporatism.
Francois
I suspect lack of cheap, abundant energy will take care of that.
Complex societies have a lot of overhead. It's fossil fuels that have allowed our current complexity. I think we'll be hard-pressed to maintain globalism in the face of declining net energy.
The Romans did, after a fashion, for many centuries. However, they did it on the back of their forests, which in the lifetime of a human being is more or less fossil fuel.
A global elite will still be able to function well after "peak oil" and "peak forest" and the rest -- and they may continue to have the power to enslave the rest of us, though that is the stuff of science fiction.
But will anyone survive "peak air?"
I've no doubt other empires will arise. Temporarily, at least. But the kind of globalism we have now...I really doubt it.
any ideas?
There are plenty of ideas, but as long as the energy companies are making huge profits off of the status quo, there will be little money available to implement those new ideas.
Speaking of Plenty of Ideas, it seems many of the contributors to this blog represent a vast cross section of industries. It seems that every energy intensive industry, or ones that manufacture energy comsuming products, are in fact focusing a great deal of ingenuity on efficiency and cutting demand. Many fronts are advancing simultaneously, and perhaps a thread, or a string of posts can touch on some of these in order to shed some hope on softening the blow from demand outstripping supply.
I have some examples I've come across in my line of work I can share if there is an interest.
GW
I heard there's this weird kind of element which makes a whole bunch of energy if you hit it really hard.
"We function best in small groups"
Probably, maybe.....depending on what level of complexity the groups agree to live.
We arrived at where we are now because "small groups", became provinces, countries and empires.
That we will probably devolve into small groups again to my mind is quite frightening, given the current populations and limited resources.
The lines along which the small groups decide to form themselves, will establish the battle lines in conflicts over everything that has been thus far suppressed by enforcible laws, higher education, high employment and free trade among others.
That small groups will form along lines of ethnicity, religion and other beliefs and that they will be perceived by other groups as being "a threat", due to what they control with resources and their practices, can only lead to conflicts on a scale we have read about in history books.
The bigger the small group you have and the bigger the amount of resources you control and can protect, will be the safest survival strategy.
I know there are utopian views of how the world will look and behave as populations decline due to the affects of peak oil, I don't mind hearing them, I just find them hard to believe considering human nature.
Uh-huh
Thinking of existing groups in the U.S. as models for future survival bands, cults and 'organizations' which might form.
Bikers
Ex Military
Cops
Militias
Apocryphal religious groups
Ethnic and non ethnic Gangs
Yeah I'm not too Utopian either.
The first two have a huge overlap, and the first four would surely find a way to work together.
Yes we seem to go to a lot of trouble to be sure that nearly everyone in U.S. society has an opportunity to familiarize themselves with weapons and become skilled in their use. The video game thing too.
And we musn't forget WT's FWOs (formerly well offs)suburbanites who generally have hunting (or paintball) skills.
Yes, the first two have a huge overlap. Maybe the first four would work together somewhere...Not around here. Bikers around here dont hold cops in general in high regard. Some individual cops are well thought of...because they are seen as fair and they are as contemptous of some stupid laws as most bikers. The militias are wannabe cops attempting to gain control of their individual little fiefdoms via anarchy. The bikers would eradicate them.