![]() | Peak Oil Update - December 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers | The Oil Drum | TOD POLL: Where will crude oil close 1 year from now (12/31/2008)? | ![]() |
318 comments on DrumBeat: December 30, 2007
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Show without comments | PDF version
318 comments on DrumBeat: December 30, 2007
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
TOD:Europe
- Unique Times -- and the Future
- Peak Gold, Easier to Model than Peak Oil? - Part I
- Carbon Capture and Storage
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- The Bullroarer - Friday 27th November 2009
- International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
- Australian Senate: Peak Oil motion defeated 31:6
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“To be thrown upon one's own resources, is to be cast into the very lap of fortune; for our faculties then undergo a development and display an energy of which they were previously unsusceptible.”
—Benjamin Franklin
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Nate Hagens, Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Heading Out, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Campfire: Glenn, Jason Bradford
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.










GAIA Host Collective
Seriously, we need alternatives NOW !
We have PLENTY of alternatives:
Powerdown
War (vs buying things via the petrodollar/trade)
Less consumption
Less population
Most people don't like such alternatives.
http://www.siam.org/news/news.php?id=827
Eigenvalues. Fixed points. Stable equilibria. Mathematicians like things that stay put. And if they can't stay put, the objects of study should at least repeat themselves on a regular basis, like orbiting planets or populations of predators and prey. Even in the case of chaotic systems, mathematicians have traditionally gravitated toward invariant features, such as strange attractors, stable manifolds, and periodic points.
What makes this tradition possible is that dynamical systems---at least the ones mathematicians favor---are governed by equations that depend on time either cyclically or not at all. But nature doesn't always oblige. Many phenomena require equations whose coefficients are non-periodic functions of time. Indeed, many---arguably most---phenomena can be described not by equations at all, but only as an amalgam of time-varying data.
http://www.larouchepac.com/news/2007/12/28/larouche-whole-operation-paki...
"People are being idiots," he said, "because they say, well, `You can't say that! Let's concentrate on the facts. Let's concentrate on the facts,' is what they'll say. Now here you have, the fact is, we're in the point of a total breakdown of the international financial and monetary system. This is not a collapse; this is not a depression. It's a disintegration of the very integument upon which the whole civilization has now come to depend. That's the game. And, any developments which don't fit the game, don't explain this kind of thing. It's one thing after the other; it's a chaos operation. The tendency is to create chaos; it's a chaos operation. So, therefore, in a chaos operation,-- don't try to attribute chaos, to some individual who's not chaos.
"We don't know who the culprit is; we don't know which faction, who is the faction," LaRouche concluded. "We can identify the faction by the nature of the faction. But the identity of the faction, we don't have. The guy who's doing this, is doing something. We know what they're doing; we know what the effect is they're playing for. That's clear. WHO that someone is, we don't have."
chaotic systems have "attractors" or stable repeating phenomena by definition, pattern just has to be discovered.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory
Cool to read up on this.
In quantum mechanics when a quanta is released/absorbed the energy of the particle goes up/down one whole step. A gradual change from point A to B does not happen. I don't see why it should not so happen in economic cricumstances when the enrgy goes out of the system all at once. We fall to a new steady state. Economists, stock market watchers and historians have observed lots of chaotic patterns in history, the chaotic "attractors" seem to be similar to the seasons, 4 year cycle, average human life span, civilizational cycle, etc. If Larouche can't find a cyclical ("chaotic") pattern in this systemic breakdown which fits he could read Diamond.
What you are discribing is a State Change or Phase Change, Like when a whole school of fish suddenly turn right.
Liquid to solid. All at once.
Complex Systems Break Down Chaoticly
Chaotically, and in our case due to multiple forces of environmental friction and degradation, rapidly.
Lyndon LaDouche.
I sure hope you are making sweet, sweet fun of that lunatic by posting his ravings.
While what he says may or may not come to pass, it will not be due to anything he posits.
For more fun info about this fascist demagogue:
http://www.publiceye.org/larouche/
I stand with him when he's correct.
The clearest statement yet on chaos theory and the Power Laws in relation to human self organized criticality.
With chaos theory you have attractors or repellers.
The attractors, as noted above by GS in this thread, are most easily seen-as in smoke rings (the smoke particles adhere to the vapor ring).
Less easily seen are the repellers-the force leaks or repels,
say, liquid particles (blood, for instance).
You can only "see" the repellers from "future rewind".
Think an eddy. The blood hits the eddy before traveling to,
say, the face instead of the brain. Which way will the blood flow?
Same with LaRouche's statement. A repeller is forcing
chaos into a new steady state.
Ok I reread the Larouche quote then your suff again and I got the message. Thanks. Repellers forcing inot a new steady state, very good. I keep learning at TOD all the time.
Most people don't like such alternatives...
Guess you are talking about those less than 5% of the world population that just happen to live in the US ? :)
The same that consume 25% of the world's oil ? Maybe the rest of the world will adapt more easily actually ?
Exactly, STS. Thanks for saying it.
Just Heard this song on NPR: I think that if we are going to choose to listen to someone other than Uncle Dave we will surely end up nude in a cave without food. It's time to take Uncle Dave seriously. He's not a manic depressive, just a freakin realist.
Uncle Dave's Grace: lyrics by Peter Berryman, music by Lou Berryman
"We gather together to ask the Lord's blessing" Thanksgiving day, Uncle Dave was our guest
He reads the Progressive which makes him depressed
We asked Uncle Dave if he'd like to say grace,
A dark desolation crept over his face
"Thanks," he began as he gazed at his knife,
"To poor Mr. Turkey for living his life
All crowded and cramped in a great metal shed
Where life was a drag then they cut off his head"
"Thanks," he went on, "for the grapes in my wine
Picked by sick women of seventy-nine
Scrambling all morning for bunch after bunch
Then brushing the pesticides off of their lunch
Thanks for the stuffing all heaped on my fork
Shiny with sausage descended from pork
I think of the trucks full of full of pigs that I see
And can't help imagine what they think of me"
Continuing, "I'd like to thank if you please
Our salad bowl hacked out of tropical trees
And for this mahogany table and chair
We thank all the jungles that used to be there
For cream in our coffee and milk in our mugs,
We thank all the cows full of hormones and drugs
Whose calves are removed at a very young age
And force-fed as veal in a minuscule cage"
"Oh thanks for the furnace that heats up these rooms
And thanks for the rich fossil fuel it consumes
Corrupting the atmosphere ounce after ounce
But we're warm and toasty and that is what counts
I'm grateful," he said, "for these clothes on my back
Lovely and comfy and cheap off the rack
Fashioned in warehouses noisy and cold
In China by seamstresses seven years old"
"And thanks for my silverware setting that shines
In memory of miners who died in the mines
Worn down by the shovelling of tailings in piles
Whose runoff destroys all the rivers for miles
We thank the reactors for our chandelier
Although the plutonium won't disappear
For hundreds of decades it still will be there
But a few more Chernobyls and who's gonna care?"
Sighed Uncle Dave, "though there's more to be told
The wine's getting warm and the bird's getting cold"
And with that he sat down as he mumbled again
"Thank you for everything, amen"
We felt so guilty when he was all thru
It seemed there was one of two things we could do
Live without food, in the nude, in a cave,
Or next year have someone say grace besides Dave.