The Oil Drum | TOD POLL: Where will crude oil close 1 year from now (12/31/2008)?

125 comments on TOD POLL: Where will crude oil close 1 year from now (12/31/2008)?

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fat_tail_rider on December 30, 2007 - 2:39pm

What Oz said, seasoned with a fear that we're due for one of the potential disasters itemized by shargash, puts me in the $130-$180 camp. Absent a disaster $90 sounds about right for recessionary 2008.

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CLZ09 on December 31, 2007 - 3:48pm

My guess is that we'll end the year with $150 oil. There will be more dollar depreciation. Right now, the only one's financing the US 600B current account deficit is central bankers. A good chunk of that is for oil and it isn't going away without a much lower dollar. There really isn't any resolution to this crisis without a lower dollar.

Add to that the idea that total liquids could be down again this year and you have an environment for higher prices worldwide not just in the dollar zone.

So, for me the instability in the US economy will serve to increase prices not decrease them. So, people walk away from their McMansion and default on their mortgage. They still have to drive to work. Sure, 25% unemployment a la the Great Depression would reduce crude demand a little but Ben Bernanke has stated that he is not going to allow that. One million USD in each home debtor's bank account and all problems are solved--to the detriment of dollar holders worldwide.

So, $150 would be my guess.

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BrianT on December 31, 2007 - 4:28pm

Can't tell if you're joking. How exactly will Bernanke transfer dollars into the average home owner's bank account? As the dollar drops in value 50%, my estimate would be the ave union member might get a 4% raise (published CPI)-non union members might be a nominal decrease (down more than 50% in real dollars).

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125 comments on TOD POLL: Where will crude oil close 1 year from now (12/31/2008)?

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