My guess is that we'll end the year with $150 oil. There will be more dollar depreciation. Right now, the only one's financing the US 600B current account deficit is central bankers. A good chunk of that is for oil and it isn't going away without a much lower dollar. There really isn't any resolution to this crisis without a lower dollar.

Add to that the idea that total liquids could be down again this year and you have an environment for higher prices worldwide not just in the dollar zone.

So, for me the instability in the US economy will serve to increase prices not decrease them. So, people walk away from their McMansion and default on their mortgage. They still have to drive to work. Sure, 25% unemployment a la the Great Depression would reduce crude demand a little but Ben Bernanke has stated that he is not going to allow that. One million USD in each home debtor's bank account and all problems are solved--to the detriment of dollar holders worldwide.

So, $150 would be my guess.