Some Yergin Oil Price Predictions:

11/04 (Forbes): $38 in 2005

6/07 (CNBC): $60 in 2008

1/08 (Barron's): $85 in 2008

As I have previously noted, the "Yergin Indicator" suggests that oil prices will trade at about twice Yergin's predicted index price within one to two years of his prediction.

Courtesy of Seismobob:

thanks for this chart Leanan, always interesting with this Yergin bloke!

In summarizing all the errors presented here by Yergin ( -6.16 $ -10 $ -35 $ -17 $ -40 $) ending at -108.16 $/barrel
=> The Yergin algorithms has over the span of ONLY 6 years, promissed You a FREE barrel today, pluss 8.16$ in your hand as a pickup-fee , sort of ... Where is your nearest pickup-depot, Isn't it next to the pepetual-machine factory?

Any TODers able to animate Yergin like this Kent Hovind vid?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfYENNup27k

I could probably manage the animation, but it's the song that really makes that vid.

While agree with you guys that Yergin made some foolish predictions, you guys should at least be fair and recognize that TOD patron saint JHK is an equally awful procrastinator:

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2007/12/325-jim-kunstler-worlds-shit...

FYI, the stock market is still at 3 kunstlers :P

On the other hand, Kunstler has admitted that he was wrong and has seemed to have learned his lesson.

Luckily for our future amusement, there is no indication that Yergin has learned his. I look forward to his upcoming forecasts!

Procrastinator? Er, did you mean prognosticator?

ha, indeed, this hangover is not treating me well today. No more cheap vodka for this guy!

Only drink the good stuff. Today on Zorba Paster's “On Your Health” show on NPR he affirmed that premium vodka has less chance of giving you a hangover because of less esters. I prefer Chopin vodka because I am slightly intolerant of gluten - it's made from potatoes.

Try THIS.

 

Good stuff. 

Ooooooo! That looks mighty good. I'll have to find a place to order some online. I'm in the outback and it is unlikely I could fins some in a reasonable driving distance. Possibly the only thing I miss about Chicago apart from the food is that I can get anything (Sam's liquors would definitely have it).

Depends where you are, might not be inexpensive but these fellows can help you.

 

They are owned by AJ's and they always have it.

 

 

You can always tell the SO or write it off as ethanol research.  And maybe even score green points.

Well it seems Yergin is on a learning curve since his $85 statement. He never mentions future price, or makes derogatory statements about PO. He wants to be able to tell people in the future what he knew that he doesn’t now know.

Yergin is the chairman and a co-founder of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, arguably the world's leading energy consultancy.......

".......The other thing that it's telling us, that I think is important that gets overlooked, is how rapidly costs have gone up in oil-and-gas development. That's maybe the great overlooked factor here, because the public and politicians focus of course on the price, but what the industry deals with is the reality of these costs that have gone up so dramatically. In a way, $100 oil tells a pretty dramatic story of how much things have changed in just three or four years."

Isn't part of the definition of "Peak Oil" the recognition that it will cost more and more to get the same amount of energy? It appears that the chief rat is now departing the ship

I'm with the Mogambo Guru -- "We're freakin' doomed"

Isn't part of the definition of "Peak Oil" the recognition that it will cost more and more to get the same amount of energy?

Yes, that was my thought.

I really wonder if Yergin believes half the things he says. Has he not thought it out, or is he just saying what his clients want to hear?

Either that or he has finally started reading TOD.

Seriously though, confidence and historic reputation take a long time to decay, as evidenced by the past 7 years...

The thing that gets me about the Yerginite Community is their certainty--and I realize that this is a case of the pot calling the kettle black, but I have frequently pointed out that if you implement ELP, and try to live on half of your income, with a minimal commute, or walk and/or take mass transit and invest in productive enterprises (or work toward becoming a producer of essential goods and services) and if I am wrong about Peak Exports in 2005, what is the downside? You have little or no debt with a healthier lifestyle?

So, if you are a member of the Yerginite Community, and you maintained your long distance SUV commute to and from your suburban McMortgage, and the Yeginites continue to be wrong, what is the downside?

This is what gets me. The Yerginites by and large don't even offer any suggestions that people might want to downsize--if the Yerginites turn out to be wrong about no real production decline before about 2050 or so.

I'm afraid that somewhere along the line between implementing your ELP and living a healthier life with no debt would be the collapse of the worlwide economy, war, societal collapse, then a re-ordering of society-- THEN the living healthier debt free bit!! (if you are still alive)!

Marco.

Exactly. downsizing is great for the individual. For American society, it will be guaranteed collapse.

The savings rate in China is about 42%.

the chinese are better capitalists than 'merkuns

or better economists? there is an age old four letter word for this:开源节流
开: open (up), discover
源: source, resource
节: limit, reduce
流: (out) flow, expenditure

They've been at it for longer than we have.

According to economists, the Great Depression was caused by "excess saving."

See, if our grandparents had been total whores and just kept spending like crazy while their wages were cut, everything would have turned out okay. For the last 80 years, economists have worked hand-in-hand with Madison Avenue, Wall Street and Washington DC to produce a new American, one who would not respond to the exposure of massive financial fraud by panic saving.

And now we are the product. The whore with no gag reflex. Now it's time to maintain our confidence so as to fool Chinese banks into buying our bad debts and rip off their ordinary citizens. Hey handsome, me give high-return boom boom all night long!

Foolish workers.

Downsizing is Un-American and i've been told that more than once in just so many words.

I don't buy that guarantee..

It may be a guaranteed 'Revolution', but this revolution's form is impossible to predict.. of course, I don't think that form will be homogenous, either. Might look very different in different regions/cultures/climates..

So, therefore, we continue on with business as usual until we collapse anyway due to oil depletion, resource depletion, and the effects of global warming. We cannot continue as we are and we cannot stop. A nobel prize to anyone who can figure how to get us out of this conundrum.

American society will collapse one way or other; therefore, it would be prudent to figure out a way to make this transition in a way that would minimize pain, suffering, starvation, disease, and so forth.

The politicians promise us what they think is a third way. We use investment in alternative energy and efficiency as a way to invest our way into the future with lots of jobs in cleantech without any sacrifice whatsoever. Well,it is a questionable approach but it seems to be the only thing on the horizon that has a chance in hell of being implemented. Think of it as an experiment. But where will they get the money to put where their mouth is. Start by getting the hell out of Iraq and cutting our military expenditures in at least half.

As individuals who are bound and determined to continue to consume regardless, we can start by investing in our money in both capital and consumer goods which either contrubute to a more efficient use of resources or minimize their impact on the environment.

Since the vast majority of our economists can only relate to a world where all problems are solved by growth, we have a dearth of information as to how we can carry on a happy and productive life without trashing the environment on which we depend. We ignore the possibility that the pie may be shrinking despite our efforts to continue indefinite growth. The music will stop. The challenge will be to have a just and bearable society when that occurs. We will have to stop by sharing, a concept that in America will be derided as rank socialism.

Sharing in a growing population with limited resources means less per person each year. How far does the sharing then go?

I make exactly this point with others who side with forever growth approach. They see ANY limitation on growth, particularly a choice to not participate in the growth of consumerism, for which the growth and consumerism reign supreme as a "threat."

I recently pointed out to one advocate of "unlimited fossil fuels" who wishes to claim that we don't know how much fossil fuel is available that even if that is true, we can put some limit on "unlimited fossil fuels" for the planet Earth. If the solid part of the planet was nothing but fossil fuels, we know that it could be no more than a slightly oblate speroid of approximately 7900 miles in diameter. We know the mass (Newton, Einstein) but would have to ignore a number of issues associated with gravitational effects. Yet, no one actually thinks the the planet is nothing but fossil fuels.

But this aside, knowing how much mass must be fossil fuels, with unrestrained growth (no peak resource constraints which they also don't believe in the manner of Julian Simon) you consume the entire amss of the Earth in less than 800 years (at 2.6% growth). For this I am seen, by this group of people, as a "doom and gloomer." Yet these are mathematical consequences and being informed, these people are making the "informed choice" to run headlong into destruction.

So, what is the downside? They won't make more money because of mindless growth and consumerism. To them, that is a very serious downside because without that their skill sets would put them back into the fields as farm laborers.

The challenge remains that the MSM embraces CERA and the "Yerginites" with such vigor. Ed Wallace, on a major Dallas radio station yesterday, was quoting the revised CERA study that all's well that will end well and we don't have to worry about PO until at least 2035! This guy is a well thought of "Car" guy in the Dallas area and is frequently quoted in the Dallas press. I am sure I heard a big sigh of relief echoing from North Dallas and Plano area as he reassured everyone to keep on motoring and that life as "they" know it will never end. John

Otherwise known as "Cornucopian Radio."

Note that we have all three ingredients of the Iron Triangle:

(1) Yergin says no real oil production decline until about 2050;

(2) Ed Wallace reports it;

(3) His program is pretty much 100% supported by auto related advertisers.

I don't think that it is a conspiracy per se, but I think that the various parties acting in what they perceive to their best interests continue to convey the message that high energy (and therefore high food) prices are temporary and that, in effect, it is a good idea to continue driving your SUV to and from your suburban mortgage. But of course Ed is just telling probably 95% of the listeners what they want to hear anyway, and what they hope is true. Note that Ed believes that we should vastly expand our road network.

As I said yesterday, if the Yerginites won't listen to the warnings, at some point perhaps we should just view this as an opportunity to dump energy intensive assets like SUV's and suburban McMansions into the hands of the willing buyers in the Yerginite community.

WT writes: "So, if you are a member of the Yerginite Community, and you maintained your long distance SUV commute to and from your suburban McMortgage, and the Yeginites continue to be wrong, what is the downside?"

Westexas: This is an observation and it borders on being content free. You appear to be risk aversive and speak to a risk aversive community. Yergin on the other hand appears to be risk accepting and speaks to a risk accepting community. Or at least speaks to a community with more experience in gaging and coping with risk than the readers of TOD.

So the key appears to be how well can one gage and cope with risk. That's not me by the way. I'm risk aversive too.

But I can see how large differences in estimating risk could evolve from differences in the learned skills of coping with risk. And I can see how Yerginites and their community could gage risk wrong and still have the ability to make money.

Amm: Classic. Danny's idiotic statements repeated ad nauseum make him more of a "real man". No wonder Chimpy was elected twice.

Ammond, take it from someone who does nothing but assess risk all day everyday, and who has done it very successfully for decades now. Yergin's game has nothing whatsoever to do with embracing risk or any kind of professional risk assessment. He's either an idiot working for idiots, or he's putting on a deliberate con for the benefit of those who pay him.

is he just saying what his clients want to hear

Unlike SO many of the things mentioned here - this is a testable theory.

All one need is money to pay Yergin, place him where he can pick up on 'peak oil belief' clues, then see what he pitches.

He has the money

We have the clues

Who is going to put them together?

This theory is falsifiable only in principle, at least under the present regime.

NeverLNG said:

I'm with the Mogambo Guru -- "We're freakin' doomed"

I'm also a regular reader. As a gold bug, I particularly enjoyed this quote by the Mogambu Guru:

Now, for those who ponder the timeless riddle of why all of the people in history always rushed to gold in economic turmoil, and who turn in desperation to the Loudmouth Mogambo Know-It-All (LMKIA) to ask me why they do it, I tell you: "I don't know. They just do. Go away!"

I really enjoy TMG -- probably for the same reason I enjoy Kunstler. There is an almost erotic, forbidden, masochistic pleasure in watching the upwelling and swirling of the miasma of schadenfreude. It is so hard to stop oneself from saying "I told you so...."

But what I don't quite get is the part about gold. What, exactly is it good for except dental fillings and electronic contacts? You can't eat the stuff, and whole civilizations have come and gone without any knowledge of, or at least any use of gold. What makes someone a gold bug, and why do we seem to believe that wealth is calculable in terms of gold?

I have applied for membership to the Junior Mugambo Rangers (JMRs) and may soon be accepted. If accepted I will receive a JMR secret decoder ring, an ID Pass allowing me access to the Mugambo Atomic Bomb Proof Bunker (MABPB) and a booklet that explains why when tshtf that people rush to buy gold. I will update the status of my application as I receive further info... :)

Good question, Never - and one I subconsciously asked myself many times - until I bought some.

Just try getting about 10 1-oz pure gold coins in your hand, and then chink them around and listen to the sound, simultaneously watching the rich yellow colour glint enticingly in your hand. Now look in the mirror, you will notice that you have a stupid grin plastered right across your face. You'll also feel like Auric Goldfinger himself - like you'd sell your mother for more of the stuff.

There is something viscerally wonderful about gold - it just IS intoxicatingly, insanely wonderful. I can't give you a better explanation, but I don't think it's about to lose its appeal.

Regards Chris

What, exactly is it good for except dental fillings and electronic contacts?

Gold has always been valuable to every culture that had access to it. The Inca made jewelry and ornaments of gold and valued it highly though they had no contact with other cultures that valued gold. For this reason gold could, and can in the future, be used as a medium of exchange or money. Gold has value because it is has great malleability and never rusts or tarnishes. It can be made into jewelry or even golden religious icons.

Being able to have a medium of exchange greatly enhances the trading ability of any culture. Gold has always been used as a medium of exchange and it likely always will be. Therefore it will always be cherished and hold great value to those who possess it.

Ron Patterson

But that is something that is largely unique to humans. To a tree or a cat gold would be of no interest whatsoever. A magpie on the other hand would take a piece of gold, just because it is shiny, but there aren't many species that would do this.

Even though gold never rusts, it is far too soft to be of any use as a tool - for that bronze and iron worked much better. And even neolithic cultures had interest in gold (apparently as jewelry of some sort). Some cultures used gold to make religious icons of one sort or another, which implies that trade wasn't the primary motive for collecting the stuff..

There must be something deep in the human mind that draws us to shiny objects...

I think silver should be worth more than gold. Its reflective, an exceleent conductor of heat and electricity and has anti bacterial properties, its a useful catalyst and can be used in batteries. Pretty useful stuff to have around, keeps the warewolvess from the door too.

I think silver (ideally) should be too... but there is more of it around, and scarcity is important in a medium of exchange. Perhaps uselessness is a benefit of gold - no-one wants to use it for anything but money/jewellery (and now as a conductor), so money was never competing with other industries for the use of the metal?

The pre-1492 American civilizations valued it, for jewelry and as a store of wealth, the hunter-gatherers called it "yellow sand" lol.

But what I don't quite get is the part about gold. What, exactly is it good

Gold has a history of being a money. Some prefer to not bet against history.

all of the above are true, so far as they go.

But the Native Americans in the Sierra Nevada foothills could not have been ignorant of gold -- it was all over in their creeks. I believe they were part of a rather wide-ranging trading system, and they certainly had a material culture that included the concept of "wealth." But until the '49ers, the gold just lay there for millenia.

Indo-Europeans have always favored gold, and some of the North and Central American tribes were apparently intoxicated by it. But I'm not entirely sure that addiction to gold is universal in the human psyche.

Nah, it's not. I'm open to looking around (prospecting) for some gold around here, I actually have had a fair amount of luck at such things over my life when I put my mind to them. But not until the weather warms up Brrrrr!

Re Gold:

Take a look at the graph of gold prices way back to 1450 . Mid way down this article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=XGOOYRHTQ5GV5QFIQ...

Name something else that is portable, non-degradable, divisible, easily recognized and verifiable, and scarce.

Gold is pretty, but that is not its most important attribute.

Gold is Money a feller named Morgan told me that. You need oil to mine gold too...

I wonder if these South American natives drink petroleum. The free market at work! Make these useless lazy village dwellers work for the good of capitalism! Christopher Columbus knew the value of good work ethic. So what if it killed you - the economy grew.

Photobucket

All that's true from a purely rational perspective. However, gold has been regarded as precious for pretty much the entirety of the 6 or 8 thousand years of recorded history. I'll put the history of gold as a store of value up against paper money any day.

What, exactly is it good for except dental fillings and electronic contacts?

It can't be faked, synthesized, or created by a government. It creates the ability to pass wealth down through the ages. It, along with silver, will be the only way to store potable wealth through the coming disaster. If you don't have precious metals, the only thing of value you will have in a few years is what is between your ears. Everything else will either become worthless, or be in danger of being appropriated by increasingly authoritarian governments.

Try stuffing 20 acres of land up your ass to prevent confiscation.

You've never been searched.
SOP.

Actually, I think potable wealth will be ethanol.

Sorry, sorry.

But what I don't quite get is the part about gold. What, exactly is it good for except dental fillings and electronic contacts? You can't eat the stuff, and whole civilizations have come and gone without any knowledge of, or at least any use of gold. What makes someone a gold bug, and why do we seem to believe that wealth is calculable in terms of gold?

I agree. Gold's value is almost entirely subjective. I buy gold primarily because other people value it, the same reason I might buy a given equity on the stock market. It is a symbol of wealth. The notion that it has 'intrinsic' value is IMO nonsense. The fact that gold has a long history of high subjective value merely means the odds of it retaining this subjective value are very good, unlike the odds of paper money retaining its value.

Yeah, clinking a handful of gold coins around is neat, but just the feel of gold coins is hardly a reason to pay ~$800/oz for the stuff.

The notion that it has 'intrinsic' value is IMO nonsense.

Your statement is what is nonsense. Gold is very valuable as a medium of exchange. That is it has value as utility, the state or quality of being useful. This gives it intristic value.

Ron Patterson

Definitions of "intrinsic":
* belonging to a thing by its very nature; "form was treated as something intrinsic, as the very essence of the thing"- John Dewey

* situated within or belonging solely to the organ or body part on which it acts; "intrinsic muscles"

* 1 : originating or due to causes or factors within a body, organ, or part <~ asthma> 2 : originating and included wholly within an organ or part <~ muscles> --compare EXTRINSIC 2

Definitions of "extrinsic":
* External or a cause coming from outside.

* From without.

* Not forming an essential part of a thing or arising or originating from the outside

People have intrinsic needs for food and water. Food and water have intrinsic value.

Gold's value is significant to some large human societies, but its value is extrinsic. It has value because we decided it has value. No decisions are necessary as to whether or not humans need water.

From Dictionary.com
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/intrinsic

in·trin·sic /ɪnˈtrɪnsɪk, -zɪk/ [in-trin-sik, -zik] –adjective 1. belonging to a thing by its very nature: the intrinsic value of a gold ring.

Nuff said!

Ron Patterson

but it is intrinsic only because people have made it intrinsic. It is not intrinsic based on its very nature.

An ancient or later silver coin for example has / had an intrinsic value besides its nominal value (i.e. its official value as exchange and tax!payment vehical). So by the way of producing these coins in the mint, weighed to e.g. a pound and not per piece a certain fluctuation in the weight could occur and knowledgable people skimmed out the coins that weighed more as the weight standard suggested, they melted them down and thus released the intrinsic value (i.e. current free (regardless of free or illegal) market value of silver) of the coin in form of pure silver. Of course this was strictly forbidden (which shows us that it happened). Reducing the fineness of the coins the authorities could manipulate the money, but in due time even the simpletons realised that the intrinsic value was reduced (to produce more money) and prices adjusted.

There were periods of stability but in the end it always ended in authorities changing the value of money by reducing the intrinsic value to produce more money and I don't even have to start with paper money...

Value is always relative first to the needs than to the desires, I doubt that there is a value by its very nature.

but it is intrinsic only because people have made it intrinsic. It is not intrinsic based on its very nature.

If we follow that definition then nothing would be intrinsic. Even a coat is made intrinsic by its user. But a coat has utility, therefore it has intrinsic value. Likewise gold has a utility as a medium of exchange, therefore it has intrinsic value.

And if you include modern day use then gold has great utility in electronics. It has the least surface resistance of any metal known to man. Therefore it is invaluable in relay contacts where it is critical that no surface resistance be present. Now that is intrinsic value!

Ron Patterson

It has the least surface resistance of any metal known to man.

Nope. Silver is better. Not a 'metal' - superconductors are better still.

But silver suffers from oxidation. So one has to have funky packaging for silver contacts.

The Resistivity of Silver is 1.59 × 10-8 Ωm (0.0000000159 Ωm).
At 20 °C, the resistivity of gold is approximately 2.44 × 10-8 ohm-m

Cherry picked dictionary definitions notwithstanding, I consider 'intrinsic' value to be objective, 'extrinsic' value is in the eye of the beholder, that is, subjective.

Commodities such as crude oil are transformable into food, clothing and shelter. Gold is not, practically speaking. Metals such as silver have more intrinsic value given the many industrial uses to which it can be put in the process of creating food, clothing, shelter.

Cherry picked dictionary definitions notwithstanding...

How on earth can you "cherry pick" from th dictionary. The (1.) before the definition means that is the main or primary definition. On the other hand your definition was the number 2 definition. So if anyone done any cherry picking it was you. But I maintain that if one gets a definition from the dictionary, then it is impossible to "cherry pick." And surely you know there are more than one definition to almost any word.

If you use it like explained in the dictionary then you are using it correctly. I was and I did.

I consider 'intrinsic' value to be objective, 'extrinsic' value is in the eye of the beholder, that is, subjective.

Too bad you did not write the dictionary. If you did then you could change the meaning to the meaning that you consider correct.

Ron Patterson

One can quibble all day about the meaning and context of 'instrinsic.' And one can arguably say that gold has some relative intrinsic value in industrial uses and medical uses. But the conversation has been about using gold as money. If the government declared gold the official specie, then gold would be fiat just like paper money. One would accept a gold coin, not because of its 'intrinsic' value but because they would have a reasonable expectation of being able to exchange the coin for other goods and services.

The insistence that gold has 'intrinsic' value is largely circular. Why does gold have intrinsic value? Well, because people think it has intrinsic value. Why do people think it has intrinsic value? Because other people think it has intrinsic value. etc. etc

If gold was declared money and a given amount of gold was traded for a commodity of obvious intrinsic value, say a bushel of wheat, this would be just the same as a transaction with paper money. If the wheat became more scarce relative to demand, more gold coins would be required, just as more paper dollars are required. Does this mean the intrinsic value of gold has just gone down? It just means that gold as a medium of exchange acts just like other media of exchange.

One can segue into all kinds of arcane arguments popular with gold bugs, but I'm not going there. I'd rather discuss something more worthwhile.

Besides, if gold has intrinsic value because it is accepted as a medium of exchange, then so do paper dollars, which are also accepted virtually worldwide as a medium of exchange. Thus totally perverting the meaning of the word 'intrinsic.'

ET, were you under the impression that the twenty dollar bill in your wallet han no intrinsic value? If so then just give it to me and I will turn it into something with intrinsic value.

In truth the paper money in your wallet does have intrinsic value. The difference in your paper money and gold is only of degrees. That is your paper money has a much better chance of being inlfated and may become virtually worthless in the future. Not so gold.

Just a side note. The word "intrinsic" is widely used in options trading. An option is said to have intrinsic value when it is "in the money." An option "out of the money" has no intrinsic value.

Ron Patterson

I'd prospect for, and value, gold because everyone else thinks it's worth something. That's good enough for me! That's the same reason I went out and found where to find kehelelani shells and would pick, clean, drill, and string a strand a day. Personally there are micro-shells I think are prettier, but those were in demand.

Just a side note. The word "intrinsic" is widely used in options trading. An option is said to have intrinsic value when it is "in the money." An option "out of the money" has no intrinsic value.

Ahh, this give me a clue as to your interpretation of the word. I don't object to people using words/concepts in different ways as long as a common ground can be reached with some discourse on a common vocabulary. My main beef with gold bugs is the insistence that gold makes an ideal medium of exchange because of intrinsic value. I could currently take a bank account full of electronic dollars around the world and buy almost anything almost anywhere. To say that my electronic dollars (or paper dollars) have 'intrinsic' value simply does not fit my own idea of the word or concept (nor do I think gold's intrinsic value fits a dictionary definition regardless of the example that dictionary.com uses in a sentence.)

You can google "intrinsic value gold" and get lots of hits both on the pro and the con side of the question. I just happen to fall on the con side for which there are plenty of good arguments. 'Nuff said.

Gold is very valuable as a medium of exchange.

Random historical notes:

The availability of gold was a good match for monetary needs. It was common enough to be widely used, but not common enough to make inflation a frequent problem. It's not completely proof against inflation. New World gold caused serious inflation in Spain and to a lesser degree all across Europe. The US experienced significant inflation from 1849-1860 or so due to large gold discoveries in California and Australia. Deflation is a more common problem, when the supply of new gold does not match growth in production of goods and services.

Gold is convenient for the purpose with only a low level of technology. Non-destructive tests for approximate purity are fairly easy. Durable yet malleable so something like coins can be made easily. Still, there's been a constant technology fight against counterfeiters and other ways to cheat. Eg, milled edges (US dimes and quarters) and raised rims (US pennies and nickels) are not just decorative; originally these were features to prevent shaving the edges of coins.

I wish I could find a link to this rather - strange - feature of gold, since it's going to sound sorta airheaded and loopy: As a grad student at Stanford (ca. 1980), I heard a talk in the Chem Dept. by a visiting heavyweight about his computational analysis of metallic structures in electromagnetic fields. It's all highly dependent on geometry, so he chose as a model system a random collection of spheres that were suspended with about one diameter of free space between them over a substrate of the same material. The near-optical impedance characteristics of some metals are such that when the incident EM wavelength is on the order of a sphere diameter, the spaces between the spheres can see changes to the magnitude of the electric field of a million-fold. What struck me about the results were the metals that fell into the two distinct categories: Gold, silver, and copper amplified the interstitial electric field, while lead, iron, and InSb attenuated it, and the changes could be huge. Once again, this applies to the high-frequency EM impedance characteristics of certain metals, which may or may not influence the bioelectric fields of nearby people. But it makes me wonder, what with all the gold-hilted, leaded-iron swords that have been crafted and treasured over the centuries.

true. look at the microwave connectors where a slight degradation in SNR is of great concern - all are coated with thick gold. from wirebond to transmission lines, the material of choice for most sensitive microwave applications is gold - not for their appearance but for their low loss and better control in impedance matching.

Oh yeah in microwave stuff, when in doubt, just make everything out of gold or thickly plated in gold. HP 8400 series power sensors are a good example, if you dig up the paper on how to refurbish them, all the critical stuff, wires, etc are gold.

normal plated gold are often too thin and hard for high end microwave applications. sputtering or special plating techniques are needed for the thick and soft gold.

Gold (or silver) plating is useful for any sort of high frequency work. At high frequencies electric current is almost exclusively restricted to the surface of the conductor. Plating is used just because it is cheaper than solid gold or silver wires. Silver has the highest conductivity of any metal followed by copper. Gold is not far behind but has the added virtue of being nearly inert. During the life of a device gold surfaces will not corrode whereas silver or copper surfaces might corrode leading to a greatly reduced ability to conduct current at the surface where it is most needed.

For a historical perspective on the origins of this question in the west you could do far worse than Leslie Kurke's, Coins, Bodies, Games, and Gold.

Because gold is money. Paper dollars don't have any use either, except for their use as money. Gold is the same, except better of course.

In fact, it is a requisite of money that it be useless. This may seem counterintuitive, but if you used oil as money, and then you burned all your oil for heat, then you wouldn't have any money. That's one reason why oil is not useful as money.

Gold has several important properties: warm color, very ductile and malleable, and very inert. These have resulted in its use for personal adornment for a very long time. Why is this important?

Human males are still very motivated by competition and desire to dominate other males. This is because those males who most sucessfully competed for desireable women down through history had the most offspring. Human males are still like Bowerbirds: they make an attractive nest for a desireable female (McMansion), clear the area around it (close-cropped lawn), and decorate it with shiny trinkets (SUV, jetskies, etc). Nothing denotes one's superior social status like a nice gold crown, chain of office, and signet ring. Gold also makes a nice gift for that desireable female: it looks great against her brown skin, won't turn her skin green when she perspires, and makes all the other women jealous.

My point is: humans like gold not just because it makes a nice medium of exchange, but also works well to demonstrate social status (ask any bride in India!).

PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami

From Wikipedia...BTW, touch stones are still in common use among jewelers in the East...But, when I mentioned touch stone to a long time jeweler in town I got a blank look.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Touchstone

Use of the touchstone revolutionized the concept of money. Use of the touchstone in Ancient Greece and Anatolia dates to circa 500 BC. The fourth century philosopher Theophrastus in the tract de lapidibus (On Stones) described the testing of gold by fire or by the touchstone.

Prior to its introduction gold and silver were common currencies, but these could easily be alloyed with a less expensive metal (tin and lead were common). These were less valuable, but it was difficult to test for. The invention of touchstone made it possible to test for such forgeries quickly and efficiently, and also to determine the relative value of different alloys. That paved the road for gold and silver to become standard equivalents of value, and eventually to government-issued currency which began as coins of pre-probed alloys and weights guaranteed by the mint

There is an almost erotic, forbidden, masochistic pleasure in watching the upwelling and swirling of the miasma of schadenfreude.

Wonderful phrasing, and I'd have to agree. Heh.

The ELM argument is being made in this article, but the author is not completely clear. I'm not sure if he, or Yergin, is pointing out the problem with increasing consumption in exporting countries:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/84530/page/1
Newsweek: Why We Can’t Stop $100 Oil
THE MONEY CULTURE
Daniel Gross

But demand is booming elsewhere, especially in the Middle East. The nations that have grown rich on petrodollars aren't just spending money on champagne and lavish hotels on the French Riviera. They're plowing cash into diversifying economies, building things that use lots of energy—condominium towers in Dubai, an indoor ski resort in Bahrain and petrochemical plants in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In the past, OPEC could calm oil markets by increasing supply.

But OPEC members are now eating a lot more of what they grow. Between 1997 and 2007, notes Yergin, six Mideast OPEC members—Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—boosted production by 2.5 million barrels per day. But they increased consumption by 1.9 million barrels per day. In effect, three quarters of the production increase stayed in the region.

Just stumbled across this priceless quote:

“The greatest thing to come out of (the Iraq war) for the world economy, if you could put it that way, would be $20 a barrel for oil. That’s bigger than any tax cut in the any country.”
–Rupert Murdoch, February 2003

And Murdoch really believed what he said, not only would Iraq be free and prosperous, but we'd all benefit massively from regime change in Iraq!

Now, Murdoch is a wizard at making deals and has created an unrivaled publishing empire, but that doesn't mean he knows jack much about politics or warfare. He's almost an idiot savant. Brilliant at one thing, yet close to a moron at everything else. Yet, through his media empire his views about the world are spread around the world like a form of plague, a virus that attacks the brain and makes people dumber than necessary. It's like Murdoch is peddling a narcotic - the dumbdown drug.

Rupert Murdoch would tell you the Moon was made of green cheese, if he thought you were stupid enough to believe it. He has made a lot of money never overestimating the intelligence of the general public.