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What is of interest is the admission of the dearth of potential solutions, the need for education and the need for leadership. Sounds like an admission for a low energy and much poorer world.
This is not a bad thing as we must all become much poorer if the worst of the greenhouse problems are to be avoided....
I disagree there has to be less energy and more poverty.
There is plenty of solar input, we just have to get good at collecting and storing it. We did that with electricity at the turn of the last century. We can do it with solar now. Here is a great quote from 1910 by Edison:
"Sunshine is spread out thin and so is electricity. Perhaps they are the same, Sunshine is a form of energy, and the winds and the tides are manifestations of energy.”
“Do we use them? Oh, no! We burn up wood and coal, as renters burn up the front fence for fuel. We live like squatters, not as if we owned the property.
“There must surely come a time when heat and power will be stored in unlimited quantities in every community, all gathered by natural forces. Electricity ought to be as cheap as oxygen...."
Edison worked out how to accumulate "thin" electricity. Had he known Eistein (Proved Quantum Mechanics in 1905 via the photoelectric effect) maybe he would have figured out how to also collect "thin" sunshine. He was right, they are the same thing.
We do have to design to be effective. We cannot move a ton to move a person. We will build the first solar powered mobility networks this Spring. They require 200 watt-hours to travel a mile. Solar collectors 6-foot wide mounted over the rails gather 2.5 million watt-hours in a typical day, 12,500 vehicle-miles.
We have options if we exercise foresight and transition while oil is still affordable.
While this seems to be a minority view in peak oil circles, its one I agree with - "energy descent" is either a deliberate choice or a foolish mistake - its certainly not inevitable - there is more renewable energy out there than we could ever usefully harness.
Glad to hear you say this. It is time we stopped whining and get doing.
Guys the problem with diffuse forms of energy such as solar is the low EROEI, and this will make it expensive, that is take a greater proportion of our wealth.. To make it easy imagine a coal fired power station going from going from an EROEI of 20 to 5.. and what that would do for your power bill...
Cabbages used to sell 30 to 40 years ago for a cost that would now amount to $20 to $35 each - abundant and cheap oil, fertilizers and chemicals pulled the price down.
Soon we will return to high food prices while at the same time paying more for energy - we will have less resources to use at will therefore we will be poorer... not that this will necessarily be a bad thing as we will have less resources to fill garbage tips, and push CO2 into the atmosphere, and we just might be healthier with better food full of natural phyto-nutrients, more exercise and a better relationship with our fellow citizens.
The low density argument against solar should take this less form the guy who made electricity a high density source.
... said Edison as we sat at lunch... "Some day some fellow will invent a way of concentrating and storing up sunshine to use instead of this old, absurd Prometheus scheme of fire. I'll do the trick myself if some one else doesn't get at it. Why, that is all there is about my work in electricity--you know, I never claimed to have invented electricity--that is a campaign lie--nail it!"
"Sunshine is spread out thin and so is electricity. Perhaps they are the same, but we will take that up later. Now the trick was, you see, to concentrate the juice and liberate it as you needed it. The old-fashioned way inaugurated by Jove, of letting it off in a clap of thunder, is dangerous, disconcerting and wasteful. It doesn't fetch up anywhere. My task was to subdivide the current and use it in a great number of little lights, and to do this I had to store it. And we haven't really found out how to store it yet and let it off real easy-like and cheap. Why, we have just begun to commence to get ready to find out about electricity. This scheme of combustion to get power makes me sick to think of--it is so wasteful. It is just the old, foolish Prometheus idea, and the father of Prometheus was a baboon."
"When we learn how to store electricity, we will cease being apes ourselves; until then we are tailless orangutans. You see, we should utilize natural forces and thus get all of our power. Sunshine is a form of energy, and the winds and the tides are manifestations of energy."
"Do we use them? Oh, no! We burn up wood and coal, as renters burn up the front fence for fuel. We live like squatters, not as if we owned the property.
"There must surely come a time when heat and power will be stored in unlimited quantities in every community, all gathered by natural forces. Electricity ought to be as cheap as oxygen, for it can not be destroyed.
"Now, I am not sure but that my new storage-battery is the thing. I'd tell you about that, but I don't want to bore you..."
Edison led an effort to make electricity usable. We can accomplish a task he identified as also achievable, stop burning the fence.
A key aspect of solar is to use the power where it is generated. The first solar powered mobility networks will start commercial operation this year.
(quote)We do have to design to be effective. We cannot [afford to] move a ton to move a person. (unquote)
Yes, this is exactly the reason we're IN this mess.
I applaud the efforts of Major Cameron Leckie to try and get his organisation to pay attention to what will rapidly undermine the military's effectiveness and indeed, threaten it's very survival, as it does the rest of us. Some may welcome the disappearance of the military. I don't think that any process short of lions voluntarily not eating lambs will suffice to allow us to disband the military without handing ourselves over bound and gagged to the worst elements in human society.
However, on a more realistic angle, I also note that the Aussie Military have purchased the unbelievably bad Coffin Class, erm, Collins Class subs, some of which are so unseaworthy they cannot be untied from the wharf lest they roll over and sink, viz:
(quote)The McIntosh-Prescott report covered the initial shortcomings of the Collins-class subs, shortcomings so severe that the submarines were not considered fit for combat duty:
The essential and the visible problem with the Collins Class submarines is that they cannot perform at the levels required for military operations. The underlying cause is a myriad of design deficiencies and consequential operational limitations relating to the platform and combat system.[2]
The report went on to note that the vessels were noisy and thus vulnerable to attack, piping problems posed a serious hazard, their engines broke down regularly, a badly shaped hull and fin made too much disturbance when they moved at speed under water, the view from the periscope was blurry, the communications system was outdated, and the propellers were likely to crack (unquote)
and
(quote) in 2005, it was revealed that the maximum diving depth of the Collins class had been reduced following an incident in February 2003, when a seawater hose failed on HMAS Dechaineux, flooding the engine room and almost sinking the vessel.[12] The maximum depth remains classified (unquote)
from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins_class_submarine
Then there's the "steyr" rifle (sometimes spelt "Stier") which the Army is cursed to use. The propaganda is here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austeyr
The reality is here:
(quote) The Steyr proved to be defective. The Army issued an order No. 7196-94. This indicated that the Steyr should not be used on rapid fire for long because [the] plastic parts melted.
The Saudis tried the Steyr and rejected it because it could not handle the dusty conditions. It was also reported that the tiny .223cal was no good in the tropical wet either. It didn't take many drops of water down the barrel to make the gun unsafe to the operator. The optical sight fogs up in the jungle and, since the rifle has no other sight, the soldier is in deep trouble. (unquote)
From: http://www.ourcivilisation.com/decline/pitt/defenc99.htm#steyr
It's also prone to melt if exposed to mosquito repellant.
These rifles have to be sent back to the factory if the thing is dropped as the the sights cannot be field-repaired and the Steyr has an uncomfortable tendency to self-initiate firing if dropped, :
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a2ZRQan0C0bQ&refer=a...
http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-30417642.html
and
(quote) Defence commentator John Hunter Farrell, publisher of ANZ Defence magazine,..."the F88 Steyr has a number of features that make is susceptible to accidental discharge," he said.
"Chief amongst these is the cross bolt safety catch, which can be switched from safe to fire simply by lying the weapon on its side, and the arctic trigger guard, which by its very nature, is a much larger area for obstacles, article of equipment and clothing to penetrate."
Steyrs have been implicated in a number of accidents.
Lance Corporal Shannon McAliney died in Somalia in April 1993 when a Steyr rifle held by a colleague accidentally fired as they set out on patrol. He was Australia's only casualty of the Somalia deployment.
Corporal Stuart Jones died in East Timor August 2000 when a Steyr rifle accidentally discharged as he and fellow soldiers travelled in an armoured vehicle over rough country near the border with Indonesian West Timor.
...
Under current weapons handling procedures, soldiers must demonstrate a Steyr is unloaded by physically removing the barrel...
(unquote)
from: http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2006/04/22/1145344307343.html?from=rss
AHHH, it's things like having to take the entire gun to bits in order to stop it shooting it's own operator that makes me OH so confident that the Australian Military are not being saddled with appallingly bad equipment and the government is taking their concerns seriously.(\sarcasm)
Somehow, under the circumstances, I really doubt the Australian military will do very much about, well...anything, let alone Peak Oil, but it's nice to know that somebody cared enough about the subject to actually take the time to research and publish this report.
Excellence, by its vary nature is a failure to comply to standards. The military has great people. When they abandon uniformity of standards conventions, they can act with incredible foresight and speed.
I am hopeful. It is critical that the EIA/IEA start realistically forecasting Peak Oil. It seems the official forecasters in Australia have as little understanding of geology as biology "When the price gets high enough, even the roosters will lay eggs."