260 comments on DrumBeat: January 8, 2008
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260 comments on DrumBeat: January 8, 2008
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With luck, private companies can duplicate the success they have had in Texas and the North Sea, where we had virtually unlimited access, managed by private companies with the best available technology. Texas decline rate: -4%/year. North Sea: -4.5%/year (C+C). Which is not to say that we stop finding oil. In fact, I suspect that most of the conventional oil industry is on its way, to some degree, to where I am right now--looking for small missed oil fields. "Small" is a function of the economics of the specific play.
In any case, note the underlying message in the captioned comments; high prices are temporary, continue with the SUV/suburban lifestyle.
BTW, our paper on the top five net oil exporters is up: http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2008/01/quantitative-assessment-of-futur...
As I have previously noted, this is a 90%/10% effort, with Khebab doing 90% of the work. Matt Simmons reviewed the final draft and described Khebab's work as "first rate."
Check out the story that Leanan posted uptop: Argentina Cuts Off Fuel Exports Amid Shortage Reports
Great work.
Kind of off-topic, but does anyone know why (generally) the Dutch use so much oil per capita? Having just gotten back from there, it seems hard to believe. Is it because of industry and shipping? It sure isn't from all the cars.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/topworldtables1_2.htm
I assume it has to be related to industrial consumption. The above link has production, consumption and net export/net import data for most countries for a four year period. Click on Source at the bottom of the EIA page.
Rotterdam apparently has a lot of refineries. Could it be that crude oil entering Rotterdam is counted as Dutch consumption, and the finished products are not subtracted from that figure at a later phase? (Just speculation..)
Edit: by finished products, I'm talking about refined petroleum products leaving for nearby countries, not consumed in Holland.
Ranked Something like 17th to 20th at 172kg. per $1000 GDP
The Dutch have been increasingly relying on imported oil (Russia, SA, Norway) in the past few years.
good info here (pdf) The electrical consumption has to be fairly high both because of factory production and electrical transportation but a lot of that is gas.
This article somewhat blames shipping to China
Notice too that the price of fuel in the Australia article is about $6.00 a gallon/US. We have a long way to go be before the sheeple git all up in a huff. John
Well done. Between you and Khebab, Nate, and Stuart, you TODers have been on a tear recently.
It's been almost exactly two years since we started beating the net export drum, starting with this article:
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/27/14471/5832
Readers will have to judge for themselves how valid our projections are, but It's interesting to see how events have transpired since the first post.
A good article Westexas and Khebab, well done.
However by concentrating on the top 5 'net exporters' you may be giving the wrong impression of how much time we have before the importing nations can no longer import adequate oil for their needs.
According to the EIA, in 2006 there were 42 'net exporters', exporting in total ~45 mbpd, but of these only 8 are 'yet to peak' - and they produced just 8 mbpd between them!
Of the top 5 'net exporters', in total exporting ~24 mbpd in 2006, only UAE is 'yet to peak', but by your graphs they look, between them, to go to zero net exports before 2030 - an outlook of around 20 years!
So, my question would be - when do the other 37 countries go to zero 'net exports'? Best case, that is, not allowing for above ground things like hoarding or OPEC nations that become 'net importers' taking precedence.
The thought occurs to me that some nations may be able to get more than their fair share of declining 'net exports', and continue BAU, because they are politically or economically favoured - no longer a 'free' market.
Hi xeroid,
Excellent questions.
re: "...when do the other 37 countries go to zero 'net exports'? Best case, that is, not allowing for above ground things like hoarding or OPEC nations that become 'net importers' taking precedence."
Jeffrey, can you add this to your "to do" list? And/or, xeroid, could you write this up (as well)?
re: "The thought occurs to me that some nations may be able to get more than their fair share of declining 'net exports', and continue BAU, because they are politically or economically favoured - no longer a 'free' market."
Or, have the means to make "other arrangements", while the market is still technically "free".
Can you expand on your thought here? Who are the "some" and what can you say about them? This would also make a good article (IMVHO).
Congratulations, Jeffrey.
Shortages in Argentina, Australia, and Africa? In my opinion, this is the net effect of energy mercantilism/subsidies from China + peaking world oil supplies + expanded oil demand in export boom countries.
Strange world folks.
In my opinion:
1. Switch cows to grass! We may need those 20 million extra acres for ethanol after all! And we could sure use a few less clogged arteries.
2. Honda had better eat its shorts and go on to produce a PHEV.
3. Watch for thinning sea ice up north first and quietly. If continental Antarctica and Greenland go, it'll happen loudly and we'll be swimming or drowning in it.