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260 comments on DrumBeat: January 8, 2008

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Moe_Gamble on January 8, 2008 - 1:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well done. Between you and Khebab, Nate, and Stuart, you TODers have been on a tear recently.

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westexas on January 8, 2008 - 1:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It's been almost exactly two years since we started beating the net export drum, starting with this article:

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/27/14471/5832

Readers will have to judge for themselves how valid our projections are, but It's interesting to see how events have transpired since the first post.

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xeroid on January 8, 2008 - 4:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

A good article Westexas and Khebab, well done.

However by concentrating on the top 5 'net exporters' you may be giving the wrong impression of how much time we have before the importing nations can no longer import adequate oil for their needs.

According to the EIA, in 2006 there were 42 'net exporters', exporting in total ~45 mbpd, but of these only 8 are 'yet to peak' - and they produced just 8 mbpd between them!

Of the top 5 'net exporters', in total exporting ~24 mbpd in 2006, only UAE is 'yet to peak', but by your graphs they look, between them, to go to zero net exports before 2030 - an outlook of around 20 years!

So, my question would be - when do the other 37 countries go to zero 'net exports'? Best case, that is, not allowing for above ground things like hoarding or OPEC nations that become 'net importers' taking precedence.

The thought occurs to me that some nations may be able to get more than their fair share of declining 'net exports', and continue BAU, because they are politically or economically favoured - no longer a 'free' market.

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Aniya on January 10, 2008 - 2:12am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi xeroid,

Excellent questions.

re: "...when do the other 37 countries go to zero 'net exports'? Best case, that is, not allowing for above ground things like hoarding or OPEC nations that become 'net importers' taking precedence."

Jeffrey, can you add this to your "to do" list? And/or, xeroid, could you write this up (as well)?

re: "The thought occurs to me that some nations may be able to get more than their fair share of declining 'net exports', and continue BAU, because they are politically or economically favoured - no longer a 'free' market."

Or, have the means to make "other arrangements", while the market is still technically "free".

Can you expand on your thought here? Who are the "some" and what can you say about them? This would also make a good article (IMVHO).

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260 comments on DrumBeat: January 8, 2008

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