The Oil Drum

I agree. I noted in late June, 2007 that Yergin had sent out a strong "buy signal" for oil, by asserting that oil prices would be back down to $60 in 2008. As I have previously noted, the "Yergin Indicator" suggests that oil prices will trade at about twice Yergin's predicted price within one to two years of his prediction. Do a Google Search for Daniel Yergin and click on "Daniel Yergin Day."

My take on Yergin's role in the Iron Triangle:

Net Oil Exports and the “Iron Triangle” (July, 2007)
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2007/07/net-oil-exports-and-iron-triangl...

I always find it interesting that people like Matt Simmons (who are encouraging energy conservation) are widely blamed by some critics for high oil prices, while some major oil companies, some major oil exporters and some energy analysts are--in effect--encouraging increased energy consumption.

The prevailing message from some major oil companies, some major oil exporters and some energy analysts can be roughly summarized as follows “Party On Dude!”

As I have also suggested, perhaps we should be using Yergin's predictions as an opportunity to unload highly energy dependent assets on the true believers in the Yerginite Community.

Its like the joke of the research assistant who sent away a paranormal test subject because they always called a coin toss wrong...

Just because Yergin gets it wrong so often doesn't make him useless. Rather he typifies a particular mindset, a particular view of the world. Understanding what that worldview thinks is useful because it shows you how they will react.

Yergin exemplifies the type of 'analyst' that is always searching for local upsets to explain away price movements. They are invested in a continuing growth model and 'status quo' and turn away from any contrary evidence. When they start to change this mindset we can expect to see a shift in the market - an acceleration in price for one. Keeping tabs on that tendency has value.

Yergin and his ilk are probably why we are already not accelerating past $120 a barrel. We should thank him for that.

The reverse CERA investment strategy?

I have heard of pump and dump...maybe this should be called slump n dump.