141 comments on Holding Daniel Yergin and CERA Accountable
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141 comments on Holding Daniel Yergin and CERA Accountable
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Its like the joke of the research assistant who sent away a paranormal test subject because they always called a coin toss wrong...
Just because Yergin gets it wrong so often doesn't make him useless. Rather he typifies a particular mindset, a particular view of the world. Understanding what that worldview thinks is useful because it shows you how they will react.
Yergin exemplifies the type of 'analyst' that is always searching for local upsets to explain away price movements. They are invested in a continuing growth model and 'status quo' and turn away from any contrary evidence. When they start to change this mindset we can expect to see a shift in the market - an acceleration in price for one. Keeping tabs on that tendency has value.
Yergin and his ilk are probably why we are already not accelerating past $120 a barrel. We should thank him for that.
Eagles soar but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines
Is it possible CERA is doing just that? Trying to calm things down and prevent a train wreck?
No, I have a friend who tried to submit an article to CERA week talking about peak oil. He got a really nasty reply rejecting the paper. They simply ignore peak oil, which at the very least is a viable position which needs to be discussed, not ignored.