Is there a "realistic" estimate of U.S. coal reserves? I remember reading (but I don't know how accurate my memory is) that M. King Hubbert once protested that a 10 inch coal seam 5,000 feet below ground was being included into reserve figures. Every time I read an article on this topic I get a different number; I've seen anywhere from 200 to 1,000 "years worth" of usable coal.

In short, what's a realistic estimate based on (at least a positive EROI with) CURRENT recovery technology?

I talked about available reserves in the US and Europe here with numbers, and to quote from that piece:

The U.S. resource was considered to be when defined as -more than 1 ft thick for anthracite and bituminous, more than 2.5 ft thick for sub-bituminous, and at depths of less than 6,000 ft.

There are some things that you can do with thin coal seams, methane drainage, in-situ combustion etc, that might make what is now a resource into a reserve, it is circumstance driven.

Then you have to define current technology - in terms of EROI I once mined coal that was less than 2-ft thick, with a pick and shovel, but that was (cough, cough) years ago before the advent of much mechanization. There are places in the world where that technology still prevails, and is EROI efficient.

The most detailed and realistic recent survey on coal that I'm aware of was done last March by the Energy Watch Group. You can download it here.

They claim that in terms of energy content the US peaked in its coal production in 2002, and that "Global coal production to peak around 2025 at 30 percent above present production in the best case."

They also cite somewhat different values for the heating value of different grades of coal (HO: why is your number for anthracite lower than bituminous?):

Anthracite: 30 MJ/kg
Bituminous coal: 18.8–29.3 MJ/kg
Subbituminous coal: 8.3–25 MJ/kg
Lignite: 5.5–14.3 MJ/kg

Here is their summary chart:

At the time I was a bit rushed and couldn't find a site that I could reference with more accurate numbers - what you get for occasionally being in a hurry.

This seems to converge with Kjell Aleklett's analysis:

Global warming exaggerated, insufficient oil, natural gas and coal
by Kjell Aleklett
Published on 18 May 2007 by Dagens Nyheter. Archived on 21 May 2007.

Climate change and global warming has become part of our everyday life, and central to this debate is the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). The fossil fuels that we use contain carbon and hydrocarbons, and in the combustion of these fuels, carbon dioxide is released along with energy.

In the present climate debate, however, the amount of available fossil fuels does not appear to be an issue. The problem, as usually perceived, is that we will use excessive amounts in the years ahead. It is not even on the map that the amount of fossil fuels required in order to bring about the feared climate changes may in fact not be available.

Mexico's giant oil field Cantarell is afflicted with problems and the production is in rapid decline. In 2005, the Mexican national oil company Pemex presented two scenarios for the ultimate production; one optimistic in which it was assumed that 50% of the initial oil under ground would ultimately be recoverable, one pessimistic assuming only 30% recoverability. That the trend appears to validate the pessimistic scenario is naturally disastrous for Pemex and the Mexican state, but our climate is the winner.

There is an important decision to be made. Should we regard the oil remaining in the ground as a source that could result in future CO2 emissions, or should we accept that this oil for the time being actually remains in the ground? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers it a resource.

...

The third fossil source of CO2 emissions is coal. According to a widely held view, the amount of available coal is virtually endless. However, when we do detailed studies of production profiles in the six countries harboring 85% of the world's coal reserves, we discover clear signs of peaking coal production in certain regions. Moreover, we notice a decline in production of the highest quality coal, that is, the coal with the highest energy content per volume. In the US, the world's second largest coal user, the volume of mined coal is increasing while the total energy content is decreasing. Has US already reached "Peak Coal" in terms of energy.

(more)

http://www.energybulletin.net/29845.html

And the US Energy Information Administration claims - we might say reports - that on an energy-content basis United States coal production peaked in 1998 (at least to date). See

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/overview.html, Table 1.2

My compilation "Who's talking about the peaking of world oil production" compilation also contains some telling quotes on the coal situation as well as noting that the U.S. is rapidly losing its status as a net coal exporter, imports having tripled since 2000, exports having declined markedly. See

http://globalpublicmedia.com/whos_talking_about_peak_oil

The EIA figures show an undulating plateau for the energy derived from coal for over a decade. Their production figures, for the first 11 months of 2007 show a marked decline (in quantity) over the first 11 months of 2006, which, from a quick scan, could be the first decline in recent times. It could be that the Energy Watch group was right. And yet even a lot of peak oilers continue to trot out the "250 years of coal" mantra. I wonder why.

Hi,

In metric tons, according to the EIA Annual Coal Report 2006, Table 15, at

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/acr/acr_sum.html

the Estimated Recoverable Reserves are 239Gt.

Company reserves taken from Table 5 of the National Mining Association’s coal producer survey at

http://www.nma.org/statistics/pub_coal_survey.asp

are 55Gt.

I think it quite likely that future production will be between the company number and the government number. My vote would be 70Gt. The government reserves have repeatedly been revised downward over the last hundred years. The revisions amount to a factor of ten in all. We are due for another downward revision, because the last serious reserves survey was in 1974.

Dave

Ignorant, you have really hit upon the difficulty I ran smack into when trying to have an intelligent discussion with Wyoming's newest(appointed senator, John Barrasso who claimed Wyoming had enough coal for 500 years!. But I digress. The US EIA has info on the different reserves of coal. The link is
http://www.eia.doe.gov/fuelcoal.html. This will get you started. I have an interest in Wyoming coal because Wyoming is my home.For example Sen Barrasso said 500 years.The Wyoming state geologist Lance Cook has stated Wyoming has 38 years. The US EIA says something on the order of 270,000 million tons(I think that would be 270 billion short tons) of recoverable reserves of all types but does not break it down into the various subtypes of recoverable reserves. Looking at reserves logically requires looking at the net energy equation. After all, some reserves are more recoverable than others. Using cheap diesel to recover cheaper coal is one reserve. Using expensive diesel gives you another figure.
I have figures of US production(2006) of 1161 billion tons. The western states produced 619.4 million tons and my home state of Wyoming was 446 million tons.Coal produced 52% of US electricity making Wyoming responsible for 38% , a staggering number for one state. Our senators(Barrasso and Enzi) and single representative(Cubin) are in the pockets of the resource companies and want to dig up the whole state. They are clueless about carbon emmisions, Hg and sulphur pollution, renewable alternatives etc. All they know is that they get huge contributions from the industry.They and their ilk are obstacles to a better world. So what else is new?

This is all a question of reserves vs resources. Resources means that they exist. Thus, 1ft seam at less than 6000 ft depth. Reserves means that it is economically extractable.

It is hard to determine whether a resource is economically extractable. It is common for a company to spend millions of dollars and months of time to hire a third-party engineering firm to determine whether a single deposit is economically extractable. Of course, "economically" varies constantly, due to input costs, technology, taxes, discount rates, selling prices, and many other such factors.