The Oil Drum

WT said,
"Based on EIA data, Saudi Arabia showed a +5.7%/year increase in consumption from 2005 to 2006. At this rate, the long term net export decline rate (2005 to 2030) would be about -10%/year--assuming flat production at 11 mbpd (total liquids), with no decline. The year to year net export decline rate would start out slowly and accelerate with time. For what it's worth, at +5.7%year, the Saudis would be consuming 108 mbpd in 2075, which seems “somewhat” unlikely, since this is about 40% more than current total world liquids production.

"somewhat unlikely" is an understatement. Has there ever been a case of a nation increasing it's oil consumption 5.7% per year compounded for 70 years running? I think it would be exceptional indeed!

Look a the long view of U.S. growth in petroleum consumption:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/25opec/sld007.htm

And we are supposedly one of the worst of the "oil hogs" in the world.

The other issue is how do we define Saudi consumption? If they retain crude oil for their growing home petrochemical industry and sell the finished goods to the world deriving from that industry, they are still meeting global petroleum demand.

It is also to be remembered that Saudi consumption is starting from a relatively low base of consumption compared to the largest consuming economies (the United States, China, Japan and the EU)

The more shocking part of the Economist quote to me was "Saudi Aramco's proved reserves alone could keep the world supplied for several decades. But it is only exploiting ten of its 80 or so fields..."

Do they have the statistics to back that up? Where and how large are these 70 other fields that are supposedly lying in wait to be exploited?

More proof to me that we know almost nothing about Saudi Arabian oil reserves.

RC