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375 comments on DrumBeat: January 13, 2008
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375 comments on DrumBeat: January 13, 2008
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One technical note. There was an active debate on the "New nukes for the UK" article by a handful of people when it was cut off by the "No new comments may be added" a several days ago.
I agree that comments typically fall off significantly when an article goes to page 2, but sometimes there is still viable, and worthwhile debate.
In the case in point, the ultra# pro-nuke side was stating that nuclear reactors immersed in a pool of 500 C hot sodium was perfectly safe, and that uprating existing nukes by 50% by using doughnut fuel with water flow up the middle (think straws) was technically and economically feasible. And they ascribed all of the reasons for teh past collapse of the nuke building industry to outside factors, while I see it as hari-kari. IMO, the last Rush to Nukes destroyed the demand for new nukes due to internal industrial faults (massive cost over-runs, delays and almost complete plants that were denied operating certificates).
I was wondering what technical constraints required this cut-off of debate and if an exception policy could be instated ?
Thanks,
Alan
# I consider myself pro-nuke, but with a skeptics eye to the possibilities and problems.
As someone that has observed the results of water coming into contact with sodium, the very idea of surrounding a nuclear reactor with a pool of liquid sodium makes me more than a little nervous. Yes, I know that there are all sorts of precautions in place to prevent just this sort of thing from happening. It is the contingencies that were not anticipated that worry me.
Some high-end cars used to use sodium-filled exhaust valves to keep the seats from burning. As exciting as the reaction of sodium and water is, it's still a managable engineering problem.
How do you feel about that sodium azide detonator pointing at your face as you sit in front of your airbag?
I am glad that my car does not have them.
An earlier car sent me to hospital (ER visit & discharged same day) when they went off in a "fender bender".
Front airbags are not much better than a properly secured seatbelt.
But we accept 40,000 auto deaths and 100,000s of lafe altering injuries from cars & SUVs every year.
Alan
And you're questioning that? You have a problem with a Vietnam War's worth of death and maimings yearly? What are you, some kind of Un-American scum? Honestly, I'm being sarcastic here but it's Un-American to think or talk about this. Just think of the cars as the lions who used to "harvest" humans on the African veldt a million years ago.
Hi fleam,
re: "Just think of the cars as the lions who used to "harvest" humans on the African veldt a million years ago."
I had this same exact thought a while back.
The machine-animals - (they do, after all, require food and care)- can sometimes be deadly.
Some are even designed deliberately to be so.
LIke many Japanese people used to living in train-based cities, my wife didn't know how to drive until she learned at the age of 31 upon moving to a suburb in the US.
To an adult accustomed to the relative safety of trains, cars seem outrageously perilous. Short of jumping onto the tracks of an oncoming train, it is pretty hard to hurt yourself on a train even if you are stumbling drunk. In a car, however, a few seconds of inattention can mean a quick death or injury. Indeed, it is probably the only thing that most people do, during a day, that has that potential for instant death.
The idea of two multi-ton masses of metal speeding toward each other at up to 55 mph with nothing more than a yellow line of paint on the pavement to separate them does seem incredibly foolish and reckless. (But not wreck-less!)
Where do you live where people obey the speed limit? Driving at 55 in most places that are not heavily patroled or known speed traps will get you run over. Most stretches of I57 between Chicago and my home you need to do 75 just to keep up with traffic.
The reason is spam prevention. Spammers like to target threads that are no longer active, and add their blocks of links. No one notices...until you link to it as a reference and find a thousand porn links appended.
If a discussion that is still on-topic and productive has "timed out," feel free to continue it in a new DrumBeat.
And I have seen this elsewhere.
You're doing a great job here, Leanan
8D
Whatever the merits -- safe, clean, available, etc. -- nuclear power was an economic disaster in the Pacific Northwest. Taxpayers and ratepayers have not yet forgotten the hit they took from WPPS in Washington and Trojan near Portland.
Granted, no one died. But plenty of people lied in trying to bring these projects on line-- some of them were abandoned before they were completed-- and all of them are gone now.
It doesn't seem likely that nuclear power could ever be "viable" without massive government subsidies. There are, of course, massive hidden subsidies in our hydrocarbon and hydroelectric infrastructure -- and in any rational world, the subsidies would all be put on a spread sheet and a rational decision made about supporting them for the "public good." But of course, only TOD is "rational." Everything else is homo politicus
The disaster which befell nuclear power was mostly caused elsewhere. To list some of the exogenous causes:
Add to this the paranoia pushed on a scientifically-illiterate public by propagandists claiming that American PWR's, Soviet RMBK's and nuclear weapons are all the same, and the industry couldn't keep up.
See Selafield UK on what all nukes have to look forward to.
And Yucca Mt after you've seen Selafield.
The waste problem will always be with us.
Just cutting off water flow thru a nuke waste site is mega death.
That's a misunderstanding that tends to perpetuate carbon monoxide poisonings, each of which has associated with it a few tens of millions of dollars in fossil fuel tax revenue.
When spent fuel is old enough to leave its cooling pools and go into dry casks -- minimum five years, I think -- it no longer requires any cooling water.
Our year-2108 descendants will inherit lands in which, buried a kilometre deep or a little less, are 250 billion watts of radioactivity. This may include, halfway down or a little further, our radioactive legacy to them, now approaching 0.3 billion year-2108 watts, in sturdy containers. The rest will be natural; it's there now.
How shall the car gain nuclear cachet?
I've been protesting nukes since TU's Matagorda Plant.
I've neglected in depth studies to concentrate on other matters.
I'll engage you across the board on this, but note that we'll be decommissioning
these plants faster than we can get new ones up and running.
I note you didn't bring up Sellafield and Yucca.
We can start at 1998:
Friends of the Earth: Press Release: BNFL/WESTINGHOUSE DEAL ...
The NII has urged British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL), which runs Sellafield, ... including Sellafield (also Yucca Mountain in the US, and a site each in East Asia ...
www.foe.co.uk/pubsinfo/infoteam/pressrel/1998/19980624164849.html
Then 2000:
Crisis deepens over British nuclear reprocessing plant
Before the approval of the Yucca site, BNFL had expressed interest in transporting waste materials from the US for storage in Sellafield. ...
www.wsws.org/articles/2000/apr2000/nuc-a03.shtml - 20k
2004:
[Jan 15, 2004] Irish MEP Nuala Ahern has called for a team of international experts to investigate possible contamination at the Sellafield nuclear plant in Britain. Ms Ahern said yesterday that a study conducted by the British Ministry of Health found higher levels of plutonium in people living close to ...
2007
Sellafield 'not fit' for nuclear waste disposal | Business | The ...
It was last updated at 09:54 on November 02 2007. The government has been warned that it would be "wrong" and possibly illegal to use Sellafield in West ...
www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/nov/02/nuclearindustry.greenpolitics - 60k
And do Yucca Mt the same way.
If you so desire.
Sounds like you're changing your ground.
The Matagorda nuclear plant? Do you think you made a difference?
Not at all.
Just establishing my postion/bona fides.
And yes I did.
(3 Mile Island/Chernobyl did it and cost over runs)
As much as protesters brought VietNam to an end.
(Mutiny in the ranks did it and cost over runs).
I'll stay with Sellafield and Yucca.
" But lingering resentment over cost overruns, concerns over spent fuel storage and fear of terrorist attacks or human error that could cause catastrophic destruction means California's major utilities may have to look outside the state to build a nuclear power plant -- at least initially, Mr. Wan says."
And it seems no one has talked about Matagorda in awhile.
I asked, "The Matagorda nuclear plant? Do you think you made a difference?".
'mcgowanmc' answered,
Then we agree.
That's what I figured, since I hadn't heard of a Matagorda plant.
We agree you made a difference. Has anyone died, in the region that might have been powered by the plant you stopped, from domestic carbon monoxide poisoning? From natural gas explosion?
That is the sort of difference I believe you have made. Also, government has made a lot of money taxing fossil fuel that might, but for you, have stayed in the ground.
If no-one's talking about the Matagorda plant any more, maybe you should restart the talk. It is not impossible for a traitor to mend, but time is limited.
How shall the car gain nuclear cachet?
Senator Reid has done an excellent job delaying Yucca Mountain.
And dont forget a million tones of radioactive gloves, packaging, pipe lagging, floor sweepings, nose blowings - the sort of stuff piling up at places like Drigg near Sellafield [300 metres from the sea incidentally].
We are going to be diverting enough energy cleaning up non-radioactive landfill.
Name all the people who have died from civilian nuclear waste in the last 10 years.
Didn't 160 people or so get fried in one single platform (piper alpha) in the North Sea?
Name all the people who have died from civilian nuclear waste in the last 10 years.
Just on the death certificate, or is it OK if the life was shorten because of processing material that ended up in in some manner that a civilian paid for the kWh?
If there were any statistical evidence for this, fine.
the fact is that studies have now confirmed that the standards which were set for radioactivity were based on a false premise - that from the amount which would outright kill you straight off, down through a dose which would make you really sick, and then right down to tiny amounts they thought might affect some future generation, there was a straight line function - IOW any dose at all of radiation was harmful.
It is now apparent that we had (rightly) been over-conservative, and that below certain levels it was impossible to show any ill effects - I am not just making that up, that is now standard knowledge for medical treatment, radiation assessment and so on.
This means that you don't need to worry about living in Denver! - no excess deaths are detectable there due to the mile-high location!
It also means that all the talk of so many millions dying, mostly in fact hypothesised for future generations, were in fact based on this mistaken notion.
Don't go eating tritium sandwiches, but most radioactive material is a lot less harmful than mercury, released by the bucketload by the coal industry, and with a half-life of forever!
The discussion is the waste, not radiation. The waste is:
Tailings from the mines
The heavy metals
In short - things not U-235
Iraq, Kosovo and other places have some of 'civilian waste' as fine dust. When some of that dust was a sabot, said sabot did kill someone.....is that dead wo/man to be included in the body count requested?
How much harm has non-nuclear power oriented mine tailings done? Enormously more.
The comparative benefit from nuclear power relative to costs is very high.
In Iraq the deaths from uranium quite pretty insignificant from the deaths from fast moving lead and steel.
"When some of that dust was a sabot, said sabot did kill someone.....is that dead wo/man to be included in the body count requested?"
Sure, once you add up consider the many more thousands killed by petroleum powered bombers as oil deaths.
I.e. "no".
The question is civilian nuclear power, operated in a regulated environment.
Not weaponry designed to kill efficiently.
Is this magical thinking which applies only to things nuclear? That there is a vicious and essentialist spiritual contamination from clearly horrible nuclear weapons and uranium-containing missiles?
So, how many people have died from nuclear waste from civilian power in the last 10 years?
A few hundred to thousand coal miners die in China, the pollution undoubtably kills many, many more. Nuclear power directly replaces coal, or it ought to.
This is like banning vaccinations because there is a tiny chance somebody will get sick from the vaccine instead of the much larger chance of harm from the wild-type disease itself.
People die mining coal every month. People get killed driving cars every month. Thousands of people die each year due to accidental electrocution in the home, falling off ladders, building site accidents etc. Farmers get run over by their own tractors a few times a year.
Pretty much everything is dangerous to some degree.
On the other hand, the French seem to be able to manage to generate most of their power from nuclear reactors without poisoning their population. And there are plenty of reactors operating in the USA, Germany, Switzerland and Japan without problems.
The dangers associated with nuclear power are exagerated for emotional effect.
As for waste, it's waste now. Sometime within the next 200 years we are likely to figure out how to reprocess it to extract the remaining radioactivity for energy. Building a facility that will last 200 years isn't that hard - the Romans could do it.
I really don't see it doing any harm while it sits out in the desert a thousand miles from anyone.
Compared to the current fossil fuel setup, nuclear is a clean option. As an alternative to the anarchy of a poorly managed global powerdown and rapid population decrease, it looks pretty good.
Talk to the tens of thousand of sub-mariners who spent years to careers within 50 yards of an active nuclear power plant. They don't seem to be dying early. And, as their job involves possible Armageddon, any psychiatric effects and we probably wouldn't be here to talk about it. Consider the French countryside. Nuclear power is safe. Realize there is no net increase in radioactivity, rather a concentrating of natural radioactivity and a hastened and harnessed decay to less radioactive elements. Yes, there are problems. No I don't think it can entirely solve PO issues, but until someone gives me a well reasoned argument otherwise I see it as part of the (possibly temporary) solution. Ever hear of miner's black lung disease? I am open to other views but perspective is needed.
One further point, and understand that I am not rabidly pro-nuclear but this occurred to me after I just posted. The net radioactivity of the Earth decreases from nuclear power. U235, or is it 238, decays in a chain reaction through an elaborate decay scheme basically to mostly lead I believe (to bad for the alchemists;) The point is radioactivity from nuclear power cannot somehow (easily) poison the whole world. It is less than what was input as starting material. If it leaks from Yucca Mountain and distributes to an area equal to what it was gathered from it has returned to a natural state. It is only the concentration of radioactive elements that is problematic. If you want to avoid radiation exposure, and this no joke, avoid unnecessary whole body CT scans done with current equipment.
No doubt this is all true. But what is remembered is how much it cost, and the visible bones of dead nuclear plants, commemorate a vast swindle. I'm not really sure safety was the main issue -- I lived in Oregon when all that was going on, and a friend of mine was on the WPPS board. We mostly thought it was just a con game. After all, the really toxic nuclear stuff was /is upriver at Hanford -- and WPPS is small potatoes compared to that.
It was pigs at the trough then, just as now. I'm really surprised anything at all ever gets done constructively. It certainly is easier to tear things apart than to build them.
The Rancho Seco nuclear power plant near Sacramento, California was shut down decades ago because they could never get the plant to produce anywhere near its rated capacity reliably. There are now fields of solar panels on the property that produce electricity cleanly from the sun. While the panels do not produce anywhere hear the output of the nuclear plant when it was operating, it serves as a symbol of what can be done.
That seems to sum it all up right there. The nuclear power plant didn't work perfectly as advertised (over-hyped?), so therefore it makes more sense to do even less with these solar panels. The whole argument with the anti-nuke types is full of this sort of idiocy.
To speek,
And, ironically, you display your own inability to think logically.
One tech uses horrible poisonous materials that are radioactive for millennia. We have to use extra-special measures to protect us and the rest of the environment from these wastes for thousands of years. Therefore, we want these processes to be as safe as possible, if not perfect. The potential harm is so great from a "minor" slip-up that we must think in terms of perfection.
On the other hand, solar, which is far less dangerous and requires no millennia long interment efforts, does not require such safeguards. If you screw up with solar, you simply get less power.
So, anyone with the thinking power of an eight year old can see that your argument is so flawed as to suggest you have recently suffered a brain injury.
I'm just asking: How much chemical waste gets generated by solar photovoltaics production? It is my impression that the semiconductor industry generates a lot of waste. Yes? No?
Thin film solar cells that are not used for concentrated solar photovoltaic can use small amounts of toxic materials, much smaller than are emitted by coal burning power plants per KWHr. Much smaller.
But crystal silicon concentrated solar photovoltaic emits mostly dirty silica.
Computer chips also use small amounts of toxic material. These have nothing to do with solar power except for some silicon circuits and power frequency controllers and stuff.
Solar photovoltaic is cleaner than the alternatives, even wind. Wind power uses carbon and plastic resin blades that put some organic chemicals into the air.
I would put solar, wind, nuclear, gas, oil, and coal as polluting in about that order. Hydro and geo are situation dependent. Some hydro plants produce essentially no pollution, some produce lots of methane from drowned vegetation. Most geo is clean, some dumps sulfur compounds. Depends on the geothermal field involved.
Here is a link to the EU's estimate of the external costs of different forms of energy - the link gives a discussion, and there is a link to a pdf by the EU itself there - might be a bit boring for some, so I will leave it to fellow geeks to click through! :-)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/12/22/202710/47
Boils down to fairly small externalities for most things non-fossil, although use of stuff like copper in, for instance, windmills is not trivial if you are building a lot.
I would gladly take the "horrible poisonous materials" from nuclear reactors, all of it neatly stored at the plant, over the relentless spewing of mercury and radioactivity and CO2 from the coal plants we have, where the harm isn't just potential. And, I'll take having my lights working over not working, thank you, which is what happens when we find out solar can't scale up fast enough.
I would gladly take the "horrible poisonous materials" from nuclear reactors, all of it neatly stored at the plant,
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/02/030214073629.htm
I took a course at the Armed Forces Radiological Institute (AFRI). Along with building a thermonuclear weapon (just kidding :0) I remember an exercise in calculating the energy content from Uranium 235 present in the coal. The U235 provided about an additional 50% energy content if harvested from the coal and used in a nuclear power plant.
People seldom have a conception of the sheer amount of coal used in a coal burning plant. It is on the order of two long trainloads every day. The corollary to this exercise, as I think about it now, would be the venting of half the radioactivity from a nuclear power plant. If I get the time I will try and recreate the numbers and give some basis for comparing nuclear and coal based power. Nuclear power is not a great solution, coal kills thousands each year and exposes us to far more radioactivity, not to mention possible global warming.
HI Z,
re: "If I get the time I will try and recreate the numbers and give some basis for comparing nuclear and coal based power."
This is a great idea. To have a separate article and discussion.
Once we hit Peak Natural Gas (and we already have in North America) and Peak Coal then symbols aren't going to keep our lights on and heat blowing on cold nights.
I'm not interested in symbolism. I'm interested in avoiding a massive deep economic depression. I think we are headed toward such a depression right now. A few hundred more nukes could make that depression far less severe.
Government mis-regulation of the nuclear industry in particular.
Right, cuz when the government passes a law, all comply with that law.
Or, did you mean there should be no laws, and let 'the market' act?
You are not clear in your writing on this.
Yeah, damned "Luddite" groups. What is it with them people what want unpolluted soil, air, and water. Who do they think they are? Don't they know they just need to get converted? All they need to do is get themselves an engineering degree and they will become enlightened!
That means they will get these special blinders where all tech appears good and all people opposing tech appear to be damned Luddites.
Rinse and repeat.
The list of poisonous activities started by the engineers and which they promised would not hurt anyone is so long that we would not have the trees to print the list.
What is it with these damned luddite groups, who seem to prefer soil, air and water to civilisation and would rather civilisation collapses and billions die than to develope the energy we need?
Don't you know that nothing is perfect, and if you keep shooting down every alternative to fossil fuels, you'll end up with people remaining on fossil fuels due to their being.... no alternative. And civilisation will collapse as they peak. And your soil, air and water will be destroyed anyway. We must do something
And for now we need nuclear, it's the best technology out there are the moment, we must be practical about this, you don't look for perfect solutions if you ever want to get something done, you look for what is there and what will work. Nuclear works and is plentiful in supply and low in impact on climate. It's cheap, clean and low risk.
I can only hope that when starvation becomes the order of the day that we first starve every BANANA who blocked a sensible renewable project.
I've got to answer to dipshits (industry term) about bird mortality with wind projects. They know that there is a problem, despite the fact that I have hundreds of wind turbines around me in what is basically a 3,000 square mile Super 8 for migrating arctic waterfowl and I've never personally seen nor have I heard any stories of troubles here. We have a little bat mortality problem and I cringe to write that, because the Friends of the Bat, an NGO a thousand miles from here, will cause immense waste and delay just as soon as they find out, despite the fact that the creatures aren't endangered.
The Altamont Pass site has a lot of older, smaller turbines. They're low to the ground and smaller means faster blade speed. They're eagle choppers and no mistake about that - the birds stoop on prey and get clipped on the approach. Why this one poorly placed system which would not be a problem if it had modern turbines continues to be used to block wind projects just amazes me.
You see that is one great example.
It's simply crazy, that people value birds, more than they value getting us off fossil fuels. It's so crazy and irrational.
Hello Morn,
re: "It's simply crazy, that people value birds, more than they value getting us off fossil fuels."
Or else, it's evidence of a sane skepticism and shows progress in people at least thinking about the environment.
Why do I use the word "sane"?
Because the argument of "what is more valuable" has been used to justify a host of "improvements" and has arguably led us to the present, cliff-hanging moment humanity finds itself in.
Of course, I could say a "worry about birds" also shows a lack of understanding about the magnitude and scale of energy resources we currently enjoy.
But then again, this is where education comes into it.
It's good that we're able to enjoy this present scale of energy resources. It benefits humanity immensely.
There is no rational person who'd want to give it up and stop efforts to maintain it, to save some birds, is what I meant.
The real issue is the complete lack of long term planning for how to deal with fossil fuels. Responsible usage of fossil fuels would have been fine, they'd just sit in the earth and go to waste if they weren't used. But it has to be responsible use.
Automobiles were a pretty bad idea from the start, they're a dangerous technology that have killed more people than wars and consumed fossil resources in a inefficient wasteful manner. There should have been more of a focus on mass transit, electric trains etc. Now you have an economy reliant on petrol cars for transport, no body even made an effort to get us onto say electric cars, no planning was made for resource depleteion of oil, completely irresponsible.
Fossil fuel consumption in general should have been keep at lower levels to keep co2 production to acceptable levels, with a focus on nuclear energy for power production. There are a few areas were fossil fuels can not be avoided though, like aviation. It would have made the most sense, to limit oil usage to aviation, shipping and large diesel industrial vehicles, while using trains or electric vehicles for mass transit powered by nuclear energy.
But people were thinking about short term quarterly profits, and not long term risks.... And that's the bane of capitalism, it's short sightedness.
The problem is not simply that we use energy on such a scale. Energy is good, it would infact be completely idiotic to not use it if you have it.
It's like this analogy, you have rich parents and receive a large inheritance. A stupid person will spend the money away in parties and fun and end up poor by the time they're 60. A smart person, would use the inheritance to make investments in property, stock market, use the money to found a business of their own, end up a lot richer by the time they're 60.
We're the stupid person and we'll end up in a great depression if this stupidity goes on.
Hi SCT,
This is off-topic, but I was wondering...since I've been away from TOD (esp. DB)...how is Bob Ebersole? You said you'd been in touch w. him - yes? (did you list your email at some point?) I'm afraid to ask but wanted to send best wishes.
I've been meaning to call him - he was supposed to be back on here. I thought of it tonight, but at 23:00 and I figured he was in bed already. I'll call tomorrow and find out how he is doing.
I tried to call him the other day and the cell phone did not ring. Before I called and left messages.
Best Hopes for Bob,
Alan
I can only hope that when starvation becomes the order of the day that we first starve every BANANA who blocked a sensible renewable project.
No need to starve them ..
Just turn off their power when the rolling blackouts occur ..
Never mind .. These are the smug folks that are off grid
and driving hybrids ..
We're going to need all the sensible solutions and then some ..
Triff ..
#1 and #2 applied for a few years in the 1980s, thats all. Arguments for not starting a new nuke for a few years, and perhaps even slowing or mothballing a recently started new nuke, but hardly the cause of the multi-decade shutdown !
#3 applies to all power plants. Regulated and unregulated. No MWh, no $. Hardly a cause for the phase shift from a "Rush to Nuke" to "No New Nukes" !
#4 was an internal construction problem, a MAJOR point made in the DoE study on how many nukes the USA could build (answer 8 in 10 years) was the industry practice of starting construction before detailed design was complete. This lead to massive cost overruns & delays and torn out work !
Only a "lessons learned" reaction to TMI could be tied to nuke regulation. And that regulation was required only because of faulty design of TMI (a reaction to bad practices by the nuke building industry). If they nuke building industry built good nukes from the beginning, no regulatory problem, no rework !
#5 is a scape goat with little validity. Lawyers are cheap (and a renewable resource in abundant supply) and the delays almost always happened before construction started (delays to start construction, but not after permit issued). Only serious issue post-construction start that I remember was Seabrook & one on Long Island (no way to evac Long Island although utility said there was in application. Utility lied and got caught).
Utilities take longer to get transmission line permits than new nuke permits, and they plan around that delay.
Alan
Not so. Plant 2 is still operating according to this:
http://www.historylink.org/essays/output.cfm?file_id=5482
We of the ultra pro-nuke side are not monolithic. If true, the above suggests we include innocents who can be stampeded into foolish claims of perfect safety, when in fact we defeat oil and gas advocates with an obviously true claim of relative safety. Greenpeace contractors who get on nuclear icebreakers understand relative safety, or at least, the motor nerves that control their legs do.
The virtue of liquid sodium is that it doesn't slow down neutrons much. It's an overrated virtue, in my opinion, but if one must have it, liquid lead is a nice alternative. Its reaction with hot water is endothermic, and with air, not sufficiently exothermic to break up a droplet, i.e., it doesn't ignite.
Unslowed neutrons are necessary, but not sufficient, if a uranium-tonne-equivalent in natural gas is (at current prices) to cost $400 million rather than just $4 million. You also need reprocessing plants. It's more complex, and a uranium-tonne-equivalent in actual uranium, for use with neither enrichment nor reprocessing, costs $0.24 million. The cost of finding new deposits has been vanishingly small, 300 times less than the cost of finding oil according to one exploration VP; and he said it when those deposits had to promise significantly cheaper extraction than they do now.
Governments have some history of trying to shepherd nuclear people in the breeding-and-reprocessing direction, but then, governments always seem to have their eye on that $4 million.
How shall the car gain nuclear cachet?
I am glad the the ultra pro-nukes are not monolithic :-)
As I noted in the original thread, if graphite (pure carbon) is a bad thing inside a reactor (as both pro & anti-nukes seem to agree after Chernobyl, although pre-Chernobyl some ultra pro-nukes could point to the "perfect safety record" of RBMK reactors) then very hot sodium (with a sodium-water heat transfer exchanger) with a nuke inside is an even worse idea.
I had a hard time following your units and their meaning.
if a uranium-tonne-equivalent in natural gas is (at current prices) to cost $400 million rather than just $4 million... a uranium-tonne-equivalent in actual uranium, for use with neither enrichment nor reprocessing, costs $0.24 million
Alan
Perhaps, pre-Chernobyl, some nuclear advocates could point to RBMKs' then-perfect safety record, but as far as I know none did. And there was one who, very influentially, did not. As I like to say, outside the former USSR, we learned the lessons of Chernobyl in 1950.
Pure carbon in a fission reactor core is not a bad thing. If you read the above link, it will teach you that the combination of light water and carbon in the same core was the mistake. Had the USSR been such that a Hungarian native escaping that country might have thought, even for a moment, of going to it rather than to the West, the whole world might have learned the lesson the easy way, as we did.
If you Google "fast reactors" you will probably find a history of 10 or 20 liquid sodium reactor prototypes. All have had sodium-water heat exchangers, so all of their designers have had to assume that large leaks through the partitions would occur, and provide defenses. 'WNC observer' commented as if they had done no more than try to prevent such faults, but in fact they have striven to make the plants tolerate them. Not safe from failure, but safe during failure.
As best I recall these defenses always include subdivision of the sodium-water heat exchange capacity into three or more heat exchangers, far apart. In those liquid sodium reactors that were parts of power plants, the sodium-water heat exchangers are also, of course, steam generators.
They all have sodium-sodium heat exchangers, so that the sodium that might contact water in the event of steam generator failure is sodium that has not been in the reactor.
How shall the car gain nuclear cachet?
The real world experience with controlled sodium (elevated temperatures)- water fires is minimal at best.
Yes theory is there for engineers to work with, but unexpected things can happen. Hydrogen from disassociated water is entrained into the circulating sodium/sodium oxide is one that comes to mind "off the cuff".
When it comes to nuclear safety, I prefer LOTS of experience under a variety of conditions.
Alan
In an earlier life, in 1971, I was a graduate civil engineer. My first assignment was to the construction site of the Dungeness B nuclear power station
At that time, the construction had been underway for 6 years. I was repeatedly told that the project was delayed and that completion would be within 4 years. In fact, it was not completed until 14 years later! Construction lasted from 1965 until 1985.
I am not a nuclear physicist, or a materials scientist. However, I am a realist. If, in the UK, the experts tell us that such a project will take 10 years to build, make it 10 years. If they say 15 years, make it 30 years and so on.
When this realist time-scale is combined with the knowledge that:
It is hardly surprising that I am seriously investigating the options for moving to a warmer climate.
On Mother Gaia, warmer climate moves to you!
Isn't it true that much of that delay was at the behest of a government that had reason to anticipate a significant loss of fossil fuel income upon Dungeness B's startup? This must have been frequently remarked at the time.
An oil and/or gas well that supports 1,000 oil and gas workers -- including explorers looking for its successor, including people who make the mined stuff into retailable fuel, including the retailers, including, even, managers for those people -- won't always be able to support, in addition, 500 or 1,000 or 3,000 civil servants. The future is likely to differ significantly from the past. That's a theme here, I believe.
How shall the car gain nuclear cachet?
I believe that the problems were very largely technical. A lot of work had to be torn down and redone repeatedly as the required tolerances were a lot higher than anyone, in the UK, had worked to before. Physicists and civil engineers operate in very different worlds and what is acceptable to a civil engineer may not be acceptable to a mathematician or physicist.
As is usual with large projects, there were a lot of changes that came along at a late point which also necessitated unravelling existing structures. As any programmer who has worked on a large project knows, the specification tends to be a moving target.
Also, industrial relations were abysmal and it was not unknown for large metal nuts to "accidentally" fall close to managers and engineers who were walking a long way below the reactor's roof. Don't forget, these are gigantic structures.
On the other hand, the UK had a huge pool of highly qualified and experienced professional engineers and skilled workers at that time. Today, I doubt if bringing in "Polish plumbers" would be of much help.
If anyone out there wants a bet, I will wager that some of the important structures and facilities for London's 2012 Olympics will not be ready on time. Many thought the Greeks cut it rather fine, I think the British will outdo them.

40 years later and where are we?
The latest and the greatest in nuclear power plants being built in Finland, is already two years late from it's original schedule and one would have to be an extreme optimist to believe the delays stop here.
The reasons, just as in Alfred's tale:
- construction not made to spec
- dismantling of already constructed pieces
- re-testing/re-certifying pieces
- changing sub-contractors
- etc
Now, two years is still fairly short and one should not read this as a general bash against nuclear on my part.
It's just that the construction timetables do slip, regardless whether we are speaking 1960s or today.
* The population of the UK has a grossly inflated opinion of its worth to the rest of humanity
*snork*
The only reason that can be is that they've carefully studied the United States ...
Nah, I think it's universal. The same goes for us Finns.
Yes, but the difference is that the world desperately needs Finland !
Alan
I agree with Alan that cost overruns torpedoed the nuclear industry. Though part of those cost overruns came from permitting delays as political opponents fought construction projects in the many step permitting process.
I'm becoming even more pro-nuke as the story about Peak Coal starts looking nearly as bad as the story about Peak Oil and Peak Natural Gas.
I've also become more pro-wind. I still want to see mountain vistas which are natural. But I think we are entering desparate straits and wind can be scaled up more quickly than nuclear power. At the same time, solar is a lot more expensive. Though solar unfortunately might become cost competitive even without its price doesn't fall any further.
We are in deep trouble.
Based on purely engineering and technical issues, that seems unlikely. For the French, in any case, it would seem nuclear would be faster to build than wind. Politically here in the idiot-filled US, you may be right, but it's nothing to trumpet.
To paraphrase a famous American leader:
"When you go to build yourself out of an energy crisis hole, you build with the idiots you've got not the idiots you wish you had."
From the time you place an order for a wind tower to when first electricity is generated is much shorter than for a nuke.
Granted, if you want more electric power 7 years from now then nukes can get it to you as reliable base load capacity.
Nuke time from order to first day of operation is going to probably shrink down to 4 years in a few years. But we aren't there yet.
Since we can get wind sooner than nukes more wind is good. But we need more nukes too. Our coal is going to peak. Our natural gas has probably already peaked in North America. Russia's natural gas might have peaked. Certainly Europe's has.
Again, we are in deep trouble. We need multiple non-fossil fuels energy sources.
I agree with your principles, but I question the quickness with which new nukes can be built now in the USA or UK (I think more than 7 years unfortunately). And building new nukes in large numbers is a decade+ away IMO. See the delays for the new Finnish nuke.
But we need to start building a handful of new nukes in the USA (and UK) ASAP ! (And finish Watts Bar 2 and uprate existing nukes as much as we can).
Alan
Ok, small by today's standards but 3 years from start of construction to first grid power might be a target to aim for in future.
Alan, I'm counting on necessity to generate an awful lot of innovations in construction.
Think about it. As the oil production starts shrinking we'll have plenty of unemployed pipe fitters, welders, mechanical engineers, chemical engineers, electrical engineers, truck drivers, and a large assortment of other occupations. You tell them "Hey, figure out how to build nukes fast or go hungry". I figure that'll speed up things a lot.
I work in engineering environments. I coordinate people working in a few countries. I know how much faster things can go if people really really really want to get something done. Things don't fall between the cracks. People find out how to get unstuck rather than just say they've hit a problem that is someone else's responsibility.
Think people who build luxury high rises are going to be busy in 2015? I figure the best construction project supervisors are going to be begging to supervise nuclear sites and wind turbine sites. I also expect the construction companies to offer big bonuses for those who put in the longer hours to get the stuff done.
Alan, If decision to finish times on nukes run at 7 years in the 2010s then we are in for an economic depression. We are probably in for one anyway even with 4 year build times. But the depression will last a lot longer if we have 7 year build times.
The Finnish nuke: I read a good account of that. They had problems with fabrications of certain pieces that they think they can prevent the next time around. Delays due to redesigns and obstacles in permitting processes like in the 70s don't seem to have been the problem in Finland.
I'm hoping better computer systems to do design, parts management, and construction management will make large construction projects faster.
But I may be excessively optimistic. Could be Grapes Of Wrath The Sequel coming up.
Anyone ever wonder whether global warming might, err ... screw up wind farm siting? Just a thought.
Not very likely. Additional turbulence from storms reducing yields, yes, additional yield loss from more hot, windless summer days, yes, but no thought that wind would cease entirely - favorable locations will almost certainly remain favorable.
Siting at a micro level is based on prevailing wind direction - you want to be on top of a ridge with a nice gentle slope leading up to the turbine and you can have a steeper grade on the back side. If wind directions were to suddenly shift so that more of it were coming from what was previously the back side you'd get a reduced yield also.
The Arctic Ocean will still be colder than the Gulf of Mexico and no new mountain ranges will spring up between them.
The plains between these two bodies of water (little more than a barbed wire fence) is the source of most of America's wind.
Alan
with the polar high regions shrinking and tropical low expanding, the Hadley cells can shift and, along with them, the wind/rain patterns. if THC weakens further or comes to a stop, many if not all bets are off. another reason to consider vessel based wind harvesters.
I guess the obvious needed belaboring.
I don't really think that wind power does anything very useful.
I base that comment on these figures from Europe, which show that high utilisation of wind made almost no difference to the carbon emissions, and that the nations with the lowest emissions were Sweden, 50% nuclear, 50% hydroelectric, and France, 75% nuclear.
Germany and Denmark were both towards the top of the list of emitters.
Part of that has to do with the need to use less efficient gas turbines when the wind is not blowing - the efficient ones are cost effective only if used more often.
So all you get with most wind power is a lot of expense and energy when you don't particularly want it, not when it is needed.
Since they cut the subsidies in Denmark no more wind turbines have been built,I believe.
So much for seed capital - all you have is a drag on the economy for the 25 years their rates are guaranteed.
Here is a link - I hope it is working, I had some difficulty getting through:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_...
Combined cycle gas turbines (the efficient ones), hydroelectric power, pumped storage and coal plants can all load follow (nuke cannot) as wind and demand both vary. Wind tends to arrive in large multi-hour blocks and, with geographic diversity is not more of a challenge than 6 PM vs. 3 AM demand.
Most of the wind in Denmark is in Jutland (the peninsula) and most of the demand is around Copenhagen, and there is NO direct electrical connection between the two parts of Denmark, so national statistics used to disprove Danish wind power, etc. are generally useless and invalid due to this technical fact.
Alan
I don't know where in the world you got the idea that nuclear can't follow demand, it surely can.
It is just rarely used in this fashion as the fuel costs so little you might as well carry on and sell the electricity cheaply.
You are correct that other resources like, in Denmark's case, hydropower in Scandanavia is more usually used.
I am also unsure where you got the idea that wind tends to arrive in multi-hour blocks.
It exhibits all sorts of variability, from the period of seconds (which incidentally has led to larger than expected maintenance requirements on many windmills), to periods of days at a time when the wind hardly blows.
Of course, the larger the grid (expensive and unsightly)the easier it is to accommodate those swings.
As for your point about direct connection and so on, the point of the whole Danish experiment was to reduce emissions, and they are still one of the highest in Europe,as are those for Germany which presumably does not suffer from the same issues and has also spent billions on renewables with no prospect of a return.
I am not against windmills in all circumstances and in areas where there is a good enough wind resource to justify it economically and you are not messing up wild and beautiful places, fine.
This has not been the case in Europe and the UK, where vast amounts of money are expended to destroy some of our most lovely landscapes, not just with the mill but with access roads etc.
Any protest is treated as Nimbyism, when one nuclear station in Britain would produce power when you need it and more than all the messing around cluttering up our limited countryside.
At the moment they are seriously suggesting that even more expensive massive off-shore wind should be developed, mostly in areas where we least need it, and that transmission lines should be built straight across one of our National parks in Scotland!
I would encourage anyone who is inconvenienced by one of these monsters in their vicinity to remove the copper from the transmission cables and sell it - it somewhat compensates for the inconvenience of the noisy and useless object, and more importantly reduces the amount of subsidy going out for every kilowatt hour it produces when it happens to feel like it! :-)
See the irreducible minimum of coal & natural gas power in France because nuke cannot load follow.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/France/Electricity.html
I can see that you are one of the rabidly anti-wind NIMBYs that has stifled wind in the UK (which has one of the best wind resources in the EU but little development). May you freeze in the dark, bankrupt, until enough nukes are finished (circa 2030 or so). And then find that there is no NG left for 6 PM demand (see France).
Alan
There is nothing irreducible about that - it is just all about cost.
The link you gave, incidentally, does not say that the nuclear component can't be throttled - I'm not sure if in the reactors they use in France they have bothered to design much part-load capacity, as it is not often so used, but there is nothing about a reactor itself which says you can't - nuclear submarines have no difficulty in accelerating!
As for the irreducible bit, we are always told that all that solar and wind need is better storage.
You can also store nuclear energy to shave the peak, and nuclear has the advantage of being very predictable, especially if there are a large number of reactors in the system - not cloud cover, or weeks of the doldrums.
So if you really wanted to do without fossil fuel you could do so, and in France's case you would not need to build another 25% more reactors as even in winter not every hour is a peak hour, so with a little storage, possibly pumped water or compressed air, you could reduce that to perhaps another 15% more reactors, or whatever depending on the precise calculations, geography and so on.
In practise of course they don't bother at the moment as there is plenty of fossil fuel power in the European grid.
So although it is not very economic, you surely could run a nuclear system without fossil fuels.
Many of the renewable proposals are in contrast heavily dependent on fossil fuels, as they need buckets of cheap peaking capacity for when the sun don't shine and the wind don't blow.
CAES proposals are also heavily dependent on fossil fuels to heat the compressed air.
Nuclear submarine cores are removed very frequently. Nuclear reactors are expected to last ten times longer. I would rather throw away the electricity from a nuclear reactor at night than turn it off and watch all the metal bits fatigue from thermal stresses.
I support nuclear power. I think we should build lots and lots of reactors, as quickly as possible. I do not think we should turn those reactors off and on every day. I am willing to turn them off and on once every year for refuelling.
There is no wasted electricity, only wasteful societies.
You can always sink the extra juice into hydrogen production, then resurrect it later by burning it with NG if that is the generation method. NG acts better at up to 10% H2 concentrations from what I've read.
Actually, the French do often turn some of their reactors off during the summer at weekends when there is no market, so they must have determined that they are pretty resistant to that.
I take your point though.
You are creating new types of nuclear reactors which do not currently operate in commercial grids. Time to massive commercial operation in the UK, perhaps 40 years ?
The UK could build large amounts of wind in 5 years (more in 8, 10, 12 years) if they wanted to, and this could stretch NG supplies until a dozen new nukes are operational in the UK (IMHO, the UK should ask EdF to build three and not 1 new 1.6 GW nuke in France, opposite the southern English coast to supply the UK market, these will be first to completion IMHO).
A "Wait for Nuke" strategy for the UK will be a long, cold, dark and too expensive wait. New Nukes are the second, supplemental wave to get away from coal & NG, a massive Rush to Wind (with pumped storage) should be the first wave.
And when enough new nukes are on-line circa 2030, the Wind Turbines will be ready to take down the first generation on the towers and put up a second generation on those towers. If you like, buy and scrap the towers then.
Alan
Hmm, missed the second part of your rather excitable post.
As for Nimbyism, I am quite happy with Hinkley point nuclear station, which is about 15 miles from my house, and produces more power than all the on-shore windmills in the country.
I will also support its expansion with a second reactor.
I don't really think that wind power does anything very useful.
I live in a village of less than a thousand. We've got 220 wind turbines going up within a six miles radius of which I'm aware. You're suggesting that this approximately half a billion dollar investment is ... not useful? I'm curious to hear how you arrived at this determination.
I gave my reasons earlier in this thread - perhaps you missed it, I will duplicate it for your convenience here:
I don't really think that wind power does anything very useful.
I base that comment on these figures from Europe, which show that high utilisation of wind made almost no difference to the carbon emissions, and that the nations with the lowest emissions were Sweden, 50% nuclear, 50% hydroelectric, and France, 75% nuclear.
Germany and Denmark were both towards the top of the list of emitters.
Part of that has to do with the need to use less efficient gas turbines when the wind is not blowing - the efficient ones are cost effective only if used more often.
So all you get with most wind power is a lot of expense and energy when you don't particularly want it, not when it is needed.
Since they cut the subsidies in Denmark no more wind turbines have been built,I believe.
So much for seed capital - all you have is a drag on the economy for the 25 years their rates are guaranteed.
Here is a link - I hope it is working, I had some difficulty getting through:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_...
At any rate at the level the wind blows in Germany and Denmark, this seems to me a totally wasted investment.
Of course, if your area has much better resources that could be very different.
In the UK I am against it for different reasons - we don't have much land on this crowded island, and they are damaging a lot of beauty spots and peat bogs for comparatively small amounts of power.
I really do not believe the economics of off-shore wind.
Word salad - use of wind makes no difference in carbon emissions? Nonsense! If electricity is made from wind it isn't being made from fossil fuel. No need to examine the source, that is just flat wrong. What this has to do with the emissions in Sweden and France is unclear. They've chosen another path and thats very good for them, but how this supports the logically incorrect statement preceding it escapes me.
The Danes are very big into wind power. If there is any slowing of uptake its like Germany, where they're running out of resources to develop. The long term guaranteed rates drive renewable uptake.
I'll modify my above statement - instead of starving the BANANAs first we need to serve them slices of fried NIMBY when food supplies are tight. You don't want it in your back yard? Fine ... so long as we're damned sure the consequences of not having renewable power available land there, too.
If you chose to make a different judgement based on the facts I have given, fine, but to pretend that they haven't given and lead to a repost is a different matter - not too nice, actually.
Bearing in mind that the difference is so marginal and the costs large, what is the matter with deciding that it is not worth doing, and that the money would be better spent in an alternative..
And as for the comment that if France and Sweden have chosen a different path then that has nothing to do with it, how about that the rest of us should be considering which path offers the best return for the money and chosing something which is effective, rather than chucking resources at eco-bling.
As for the rather disparaging remarks about NIMBY's, on the same level and with about an equal degree of charity the argument might be made that the self-appointed 'greens' have delayed choices and imposed costs to make an effective response to power requirements far more difficult.
It also happens to be factually inaccurate, as there are no windfarms or proposals for one in my area - but maybe you are so green that you do not care if beauty spots are devastated with access roads and so on, and peat bogs destroyed.
And to correct the more glaring innaccuracies in your post, I did not say that windfarms made no difference to carbon emissions, rather that they made little difference and that for the same money more effective measures should be taken.
In addition, you have obviously not taken the trouble to research the subjects on which you pontificate, present windfarms in Denmark will continue to get a subsidy for donkey's years and provide a drag upon the economy, however new windmills are not eligible for the same subsidy, so confronted by the true economics no-one wants to build any.
I will even give you an example of a way the money could be better spent than on windfarms which is not nuclear.
Residential solar panels are of proven effectiveness and are near economic even at northerly latitudes.
If combined with heat pumps they would greatly contribute to reducing consumption and reducing CO2.
However, don't let facts get in the your way - you haven't bothered doing so in the discussion so far, or troubled to answer the arguments given, preferring to fight straw-men of your own invention.
The misleadingly named 'SacredCowTipper' seems unable to understand the part about lower efficiency in natural gas turbines that can respond quickly to wind turbine production drops compared to other, more complex natural gas turbines that cannot respond in that way.
If electricity is made from wind, it is entirely conceivable the combustion turbines backing it up use as much or more fossil fuel as other, more efficient combustion turbines would have used, had no electricity been made from wind.
Governments' willingness to subsidize wind power makes sense if they are confident that their natural gas revenues will not be hurt by it.
How shall the car gain nuclear cachet?
Load following combined cycle NG plants (the efficient ones) can adapt to both fluctuating demand and geographically diverse wind generation quite well. So can hydropower plants.
Alan
OK, load following combined cycle NG plants can follow load, including negative load due to wind turbines. If they also exist, then indeed, producing electricity with wind turbines can save fossil fuel.
How shall the car gain nuclear cachet?
I'm remembering back over all the problems with nuclear power that I read about as they happened over the years. The sense I got from the news was that the industry was more incompetent than dishonest. And their PR was terrible. Alfred expresses a concern that today the technical competence will be worse that it was decades ago. This is in line with Heading Out in his Turning an Oil Tanker where he expressed a concern for our future supply of trained scientists and engineers and got back from TOD audience a litany of complaints about the current condition of our technical competence. We talk about peak oil, peak gas, peak coal, etc. Perhaps we also have a peak engineer problem with the peak having been back around the time of the moon landing (1969).
If there is any merit at all to this observation, we should not be hoping that newly constructed nuclear power plants will help us deal with peak oil. We no longer have the technical competence to build new nuclear power plants. Some of the people reading this have the competence to contribute to a well run construction project, but who will, for example, fill the role of Adm. Rickover? I think we should really try to stay clear of nuclear power. Today we will really make a mess of it.
What I know about state of the art nukes is small, I did like the idea that when we had Maine Yankee we produced 80% of the power needed in Maine. I have two other experiences. I had an oceanographer friend
who worked on the impact statement for millstone in Connecticut. Two days before the report was required all the hard drives failed. Went in one morning and the tech staff said sorry. All data was lost, all data on the temp change created by the out flow of warm water was gone. It was deemed unnecessary by the PTB, to redo the survey. The locals were thrilled, a huge change in the fishing. I had a great time using the plant boats to sail out there.
Now he builds boats, gave up on the hypocrisy.
2'nd is not so nice, brother in law joined the navy. Ended up on a nuke sub in power plant. Died at 32, two young kids, lukemia. When we tried to find shipmates in his working group to come to the funeral, only 2 out of 16 were still alive.
I guess I'm not thrilled with it and like most of everything else I have sincere doubts we are seeing accurate info. But the little deaths get glossed over in the big picture.
I really don't have any other way to to think about things, than my own personal experience, time and again people lie, and cover up for money. I can look at big pictures, and because I'm me I enjoy it, but we are a missing the small stuff, and its the small stuff that will tell us when the shit is really going to hit the fan.
I still want to see mountain vistas which are natural.
Man is part of nature, ergo what man modifies is then part of nature.
(besides - most mountains have been modified by man's footprint already. Getting the hardware to the mountain and servicing it will make mountain placement in many places hard. A 400 foot high erection is not simple.)
We are in deep trouble.
So then, in the interest of NOT being in trouble, does that not make a 5 MW wind machine not beautiful?
Kayaking to my favorite island, with beautiful Suzlon 2.0MW turbines in the background. I wish they were more plentiful and larger, but this was a private development - corn farmers decided they like to raise some wind, too.