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125 comments on President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supply

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westexas on January 16, 2008 - 7:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do.

What I found interesting is that as best that I can tell, no one in the MSM is reporting this comment.

Of course, I have, on occasion, expressed my opinion on this subject:

Texas and the Lower 48 as a Model for Saudi Arabia and the World (May, 2006)
http://www.energybulletin.net/16459.html

The following graph, updated with 2006 and 2007 to date data, is from the above paper, which used data through 2005.

I have acknowledged that, if 2005 does turn out to be the final Saudi peak, there was some degree of luck involved when Khebab and I posted this paper.

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Robert Marston on January 18, 2008 - 12:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Uncanny.

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BobCousins on January 18, 2008 - 12:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ah, the classic "How to lie with statistics" chart. You can make any trend look like any other by manipulating the scales of the chart, to create appearance of a correlation, which is what you have done. It's total junk statistics, and completely meaningless. You lose a lot of credibility by using hoary old tricks like this.

I guess you can always impress some of the more gullible in the audience with charts like this. You should be in marketing!

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westexas on January 18, 2008 - 1:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

As I asked you the first time you delivered your ad hominem attack on Khebab and me, precisely how have we provided misleading data?

The original chart was done in early 2006 using Saudi data through 2005, and posted online in the Energy Bulletin.

All that we have done is to add the 2006 and 2007 to date Saudi data to a chart that was done almost two years ago.

So, precisely how have we misled anyone?

BTW, the 2006 chart was just a graphical representation of a point I first made in January, 2006:

Hubbert Linearization Analysis of the Top Three Net Oil Exporters
Posted by Prof. Goose on January 27, 2006
[ED: This is a guest post by westexas...]

I believe that Saudi Arabia is on the verge of a long term decline in production.   Texas, the former swing producer, with a similar P/Q intercept, showed a 29% drop in production over a 10 year period after its 1972 peak.

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elwoodelmore on January 19, 2008 - 7:23am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

i dont see your presentation as misleading at all. the chart is clearly labled top and bottom, left and right. the scales are shifted, but the scales are the same, i.e. 1yr=1yr and 1bpd=1bpd. the magnitude of the quarterly production numbers are not what is important,their relationship to each other is as shown.
that demonstrates us peak was about 1/3 ksa's apparent peak and occures about 33 years earlier.

and as always, the standard disclaimer applies, past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

yes, bobcousins, exactly how is this chart misleading ?

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125 comments on President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supply

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