Sounds reasonable, but a key point to keep in mind is that the year to year net export decline rate starts out slowly, and accelerates with time, but once the decline kicks in, the volumetric decline rate tends to be approximately linear, i.e., close to a fixed rate per year.

So, if the overall world net export decline really kicked in, in 2007, one might expect the decline to be on the order of 1.5 mbpd per year. The 2006 and 2007 data suggest that the top five are dropping at about one mbpd per year in 2006 and 2007.

The Saudis' strategy is eminently shrewd. Take away more of Big Oil's value stream, capture those extra tens of billions of dollars in chemicals, refining and plastics profit for itself, and thus extend and expand the life of its cash cow. Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE are doing the same in chemicals and refining. Russia and Kazakhstan are as well in terms of attempting to capture pieces of Europe's downstream power and refining sectors.

In the big picture, it fits into the thesis of Paul Kennedy's classic Rise and Fall of Great Powers: They are rising, we are falling.

Steve LeVine, author
The Oil and the Glory
http://www.oilandglory.com

what the future will not include is exponentially increasing population. The peak is now.

You may well be correct, I agree it will happen eventually, but will it be in the next 12 years (the planning outlook period for my government) - it is not clear how soon 'peak sapiens' could be, for food and water reasons. At the moment it is all down to guesses and opinions - the reason I am asking these questions is to try and see what 'can't-possibly-be' in a bit more detail - what is the best case?

I think, for a while at least, fresh water and agriculture will, if at all possible, get all the liquid fuels and chemicals they need - whereas aviation and long range tourism, as an example, will be at the bottom of the list of people to get adequate supplies of oil.

From the EIA statistics almost every 'net exporting' country is already showing the ELM effect, which is bad enough for 'net importers' (especially those that import close to 100% of their needs!), but then add in the fact that certain parts of the struggling economy will get more than their fair share ... hmmmmm!

I also think that some areas of the world can be self-sufficient in food for quite a while, just like some nations can be self-sufficient in fossil fuels for quite a while.

For all the things that are going to peak, we won't peak everywhere in the world simmultaneously - the trick will be to avoid as many as possible of the peaks coming to a place near you soon!

There are already several countries in the world who are post 'peak oil', watch and learn what the failure modes are - then maybe you will have a viable plan B when it happens to you?

Full-retarded society on the verge of becoming semi-retired.

Yes it's insane how so many find self-worth and personality from what they do. It's as if they didn't exist without their jobs. Hollow shells.

Americans are, on the whole, not very 'street smart'. Consequently, Americans are not very good at getting up every morning, walking down the road, seeing an opportunity to make a buck and taking advantage of it. For too long many Americans have been accustomed to being employed at a 'job' that requires no thought outside the knowledge needed to perform their assigned tasks at 'their job'. Average Americans have left the hustling to an 'enterprenurial class' or 'business class'.

A wake up call is coming. Average Americans are going to find opportunities in trade, short term or 'odd' jobs, repair work, service work performed for those that still have something of value, and a zillion other niche areas. There is nothing like being cast upon ones own wits to bring life into very sharp focus. Who knows, maybe the guy that has been putting lug nuts on new cars for umpteen years will find being left to his own devices to hustle a living will make him feel 'alive' again.

In the early post-peak years the need for manual labor to build new non-oil infrastructure combined with the collapse of many other areas of the economy will drive a lot of people toward much harder work than whatever they are doing now.

Picture motor home designers, SUV design engineers, SUV salesmen, boat mechanics, lawyers, manicurists, social workers, and assorted other people working instead:

- in wind turbine factories,
- as wind turbine installers,
- as solar panel installers,
- as insulation installers,
- as bicycle repairmen,
- as scooter repairmen,
- as nuclear power plant welders,
- and other occupations in the non-fossil fuels energy industries.

In the same vein such beliefs contribute on some level to the way we tend to look down on Europeans, who get months of vacation time and actually use it. We think there's something inherently wrong with that. I know people who get 3 weeks vacation a year and are loathe to use it.

If TSHTF here there are many deeply ingrained American cultural tenets that have been in place for generations and they will be a high hurdle to get across. Happy Motoring is only one of them. When the core belief system of a nation has been in place for generations, and is threatened by forces and events beyond our control and borders, denial and anger are sure to play big parts in the denouement.

There are probably 20 million people in the U.S. that believe natural disasters, like Katrina, are visited on us by a vengeful God to punish us for not adhering to "the book". The good news is they constitute less than 10% of our population. The better news is they don't have enough votes to put the Huckster in the White House.

As for Saudi, do the dirt-poor share the disdain for work, or is there a shortage of opportunity? I would think they are not qualified for a lot of the work mentioned above due to a lack of education and experience. Lots of poor disaffected people with very dismal prospects whose government is run by ultra-rich royalty living lavish lifestyles sounds like the perfect breeding ground for, well, malcontents and terrorists. People with real grievances who lash out and latch onto whatever "the cause" is because it gives them something to live for, even if that something is infamy. They're very susceptible to brainwashing. But then again, those factors are not widespread in America but we have plenty of our own brainwashed masses here, too. They're just brainwashed by different people for different purposes.

Interesting. We should blame the illegal immigrant problem on Michiganders. If they would only relocate then there would be no need for immigrant labor, and the problem of illegal immigration would end.

While Republicans talk a good game when it comes to the illegal immigrant problem, the fact is that most businesses that employ illegals on a regular basis are Republican and support Republican candidates. The business class Republicans - the moneycons - want the illegal laborers here regardless of what they say in public to appease the base. Which makes them more hypocritial than the Democrats, but only slightly.

IMO...the problem is not the pay, nor the nature of the work. The problem is that farm work is usually temporary. Nobody wants to work for only a few weeks a year, then move on to the next crop if there's an alternative. Even the illegal immigrants prefer fast food jobs if they can get them. They may pay less, but you can settle down, send the kids to school, etc.

I'm lumping together inaccurately?

Here in Southern California I watch Hispanics do:

- trash collection
- dish washing
- brick laying
- roofing
- laying foundations
- many other manual labor jobs
- lawn mowing and gardening

Are you telling me I do not see this? I see it from my cubicle. I see it walking thru neighbors. I see it in restaurants when I get a glimpse into the back areas.

These people are doing work so that the owners of capital can pay less for labor.

This is another example of socializing costs and privatizing profits. We pay for higher crime, lousier schools, more social programs, more prisons, more police so that capitalists can make more money.

Yes, bruce, they lump skilled trades with dishwashing and that's why they have the shoddy throwaway homes they have.

I think what changed in this country is that too many people today feel physical labor is beneath them and undignified