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Thanks for sharing your list of information resources Robert, very useful!
What's your outlook on domestic refining margins at this point?
What's your outlook on domestic refining margins at this point?
They will have to get better. If they don't, I expect utilization to stay low and inventories to come down faster.
Which means either rising gasoline prices (outputs) or falling oil crude prices (inputs) and I don't think that crude can fall too much from here. Even with the economy teetering on recession we're still seeing around $90 per barrel price. So even a nasty recession might not lower price much lower than mid-$70s. And that would basically mean in a recession that gasoline prices would stay roughly where they are or even rise a bit if crude doesn't drop at all.
I think this trend is telling us that $3.50-$4.00 per gallon gasoline is pretty much inevitable this summer.