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The five biggest hurricanes of the Atlantic basin this century have already occurred:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/19/05854/9179/875/373391
I'm quite surprised by 2007 - the El Niño steering winds that broke up the 2006 season were gone, but still no major storms for the U.S. If this trend continues this year we start to see power plant shutdowns and perhaps city evacuations due to low water conditions in the southeast.
It would be interesting, in the sense of the Chinese curse, to see how the 2008 election plays out with the Republican stronghold suffering the wrath of god ...
Antarctic Ice Loss Speeds Up, Nearly Matches Greenland Loss
January 23, 2008
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2008-010
PASADENA, Calif. – Ice loss in Antarctica increased by 75 percent in the last 10 years due to a speed-up in the flow of its glaciers and is now nearly as great as that observed in Greenland, according to a new, comprehensive study by NASA and university scientists.
"Rignot said. "Large uncertainties remain in predicting Antarctica's future contribution to sea level rise. Ice sheets are responding faster to climate warming than anticipated."
Rignot said scientists are now observing these climate-driven changes over a significant fraction of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the extent of the glacier ice losses is expected to keep rising in the years to come. "Even in East Antarctica, where we find ice mass to be in near balance, ice loss is detected in its potentially unstable marine sectors, warranting closer study," he said. "
Antarctica Snowfall Increase
Reference:
Thomas, E. R., G. J. Marshall, and J. R. McConnell, 2008. A doubling in snow accumulation in the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1850. Geophysical Research Leters, 35, L01706, doi:10.1029/2007GL032529.
Global warming predicts an increase in snowfall in areas that had previously been extremely cold. This is for the simple reason that warmer air can hold more moisture. This is the origin of the old saying "it is too cold to snow".
Satellite measurements and other observations demonstrate pretty conclusively that the southern ice cap is losing mass. This is entirely consistent with increased snowfall, and both are expected outcomes of global warming. The same thing is happening on Greenland, btw.
Thank you.
Seconded. I don't understand why GW deniers can't get their head around this simple fact: Global Climate Change will be marked by CHAOS above all else. Extremes will be the norm. Given that energy is energy and must be conserved, if it's hotter here, it might just get cooler there. Only the increase in available energy would disrupt this. While that is happening, at any given moment, or any relatively short period of time, the Earth is dealing with only so much energy.
It must stand their hair on end when the realize the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation would bring a mini-Ice Age to Europe... but that climate change would march on...
Cheers
Nice editorial site you've found there. Why don't you get back to us when this is on the front page at http://realclimate.org?
The comments on the World Climate Report by Patrick Michaels seem to ignore the fact that precipitation increases as temperature warms. This is especially so for snow, as warmer air can carry more moisture from it's source to the the local where the snow falls. The Antarctic is very cold most of the year, thus little snow actually falls inland. The Antarctic Peninsula is further north of the main land mass and is both warmer and more exposed to the surrounding warm oceans. As temperature rises, it's quite reasonable to expect that the amount of snow fall would increases there.
For example, the WRC comment ends thus:
The implication is that the increase in the rate of surface accumulation implies that there is no loss in total mass at lower elevations. The site is located at 74S and 1400m elevation. Rignot's study reported of mass loss in glaciers at lower elevations, reflecting changes in ice flow as well as melt. The comment on the WRC does not refute Rignot's conclusions. In fact, I think Michaels (or whoever wrote this piece) is intentionally misinterpreting the data to spread disinformation about Climate Change. But, that's nothing new, they've been spreading propaganda like this for more than 10 years. That jrwakefield thinks the WRC link is meaningful just shows how successful these guys have been.
E. Swanson
Please don't feed the troll.
Anyone who wants to re-live JRWakefield's propaganda can re-read this thread. It's the same old, same old.
Just so we are clear on where this is coming from ...
"This popular web log points out the weaknesses and outright fallacies in the science that is being touted as “proof” of disastrous warming. It’s the perfect antidote against those who argue for proposed changes to the Rio Climate Treaty, such as the Kyoto Protocol, which are aimed at limiting carbon emissions from the United States."
That "About US" statement appears to be about 10 years past its due date.
Your first sentence is total BS.
We still have 92 years or "history" to experience before one can make any such conclusion. The major fact of the study of climate is that there is variation in weather as well as "normal" weather. Variation in the number and strength of hurricanes is also to be expected. And, there's the typhons in the Pacific Ocean, which also represent part of the picture, which you ignored. In addition to the El Nino oscillations, there's the other known forcings, such as the variation in the solar insolation (previously called the solar constant) and the impacts of the 18.6 year lunar cycle. Then, theres changes in ocean circulation in the form of the THC, which may be undergoing long term changes due to our addition of Greenhouse Gases to the atmosphere. One or two years of data does not prove a trend in climate.
With all due respect, I think you should stick to what you know, instead of pontificating about things which are obviously beyond your area of expertise. Science can be done by non-professionals, but it takes a lot of effort to actually do a good job. I think you should do a lot more homework before posting such wild claims on public forums in future.
E. Swanson
Your first sentence is total BS.
Ok. lets look at that:
Errr, of course the statement is true. The 5 biggest X of Timeframe Y would have already happened, as the 5 X'es are in the the past and any larger X'es are in the future, thus not knowable.
Unless someone has a time machine and has been holding out on us how peak oil turns out....
Didn't bother to read it, did you?
I would have said the six biggest.
People in that particular venue are so wrapped up in Katrina its not even funny, but they'll listen to well organized facts. The five biggest weren't selected in terms of air pressure, wind speed, or storm surge, but rather for their import - things very obviously changed at the beginning of this century, with storms appearing both earlier and later, running off to hit places that have never seen tropical cyclones in the past, and in general showing lots of signs of more energy in the system than has ever been before in recorded history.
I had to make a sharp cut sticking to storms that were obviously statistical outliers - which one would you suggest for the #6 position and why?
America is not the only place to have hurricanes. The steering winds that broke up the Caribbean hurricane formation conditions did not do so in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. We are still having very bad cyclonic storms in other areas.
SCT
It was a throw away, sarcastic line. The statement is true up to the total number of hurricanes that have occured this century. Say that number is 20. Then the 20 biggest this century have occured, and it does not matter what the size of the smallest is, it would be in the 20 biggest.