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GAIA Host Collective
Your first sentence is total BS.
We still have 92 years or "history" to experience before one can make any such conclusion. The major fact of the study of climate is that there is variation in weather as well as "normal" weather. Variation in the number and strength of hurricanes is also to be expected. And, there's the typhons in the Pacific Ocean, which also represent part of the picture, which you ignored. In addition to the El Nino oscillations, there's the other known forcings, such as the variation in the solar insolation (previously called the solar constant) and the impacts of the 18.6 year lunar cycle. Then, theres changes in ocean circulation in the form of the THC, which may be undergoing long term changes due to our addition of Greenhouse Gases to the atmosphere. One or two years of data does not prove a trend in climate.
With all due respect, I think you should stick to what you know, instead of pontificating about things which are obviously beyond your area of expertise. Science can be done by non-professionals, but it takes a lot of effort to actually do a good job. I think you should do a lot more homework before posting such wild claims on public forums in future.
E. Swanson
Your first sentence is total BS.
Ok. lets look at that:
Errr, of course the statement is true. The 5 biggest X of Timeframe Y would have already happened, as the 5 X'es are in the the past and any larger X'es are in the future, thus not knowable.
Unless someone has a time machine and has been holding out on us how peak oil turns out....
Didn't bother to read it, did you?
I would have said the six biggest.
People in that particular venue are so wrapped up in Katrina its not even funny, but they'll listen to well organized facts. The five biggest weren't selected in terms of air pressure, wind speed, or storm surge, but rather for their import - things very obviously changed at the beginning of this century, with storms appearing both earlier and later, running off to hit places that have never seen tropical cyclones in the past, and in general showing lots of signs of more energy in the system than has ever been before in recorded history.
I had to make a sharp cut sticking to storms that were obviously statistical outliers - which one would you suggest for the #6 position and why?
America is not the only place to have hurricanes. The steering winds that broke up the Caribbean hurricane formation conditions did not do so in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. We are still having very bad cyclonic storms in other areas.
SCT
It was a throw away, sarcastic line. The statement is true up to the total number of hurricanes that have occured this century. Say that number is 20. Then the 20 biggest this century have occured, and it does not matter what the size of the smallest is, it would be in the 20 biggest.