105 comments on Coal Crunch?
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GAIA Host Collective
Did a little googling to answer my own question on shutdown timeframes:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23103775-664,00.html
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Most affected mines are transporting coal from stockpiles and port authorities at Gladstone Port, where most of the coal is shipped from, said there had not been any disruptions to operations as yet.
A spokesman for one of the worst affected mines, owned and operated by Ensham Resources, yesterday said flood waters had reached a peak on Wednesday night and had started to recede. But water was still flooding draglines, and repairs could take more than 12 months.
Ensham, which is partially owned by Japanese customers, declared force majeure on Monday.
"We're going to see some pretty prolonged disruptions here, I suspect," ANZ commodity strategist Mark Pervan said.
"Supply is going to be considerably tighter now. There are not a lot of alternative supplies so it's certainly going to be a factor in negotiations on annual contract prices."
Annual contract coal prices, which are tipped to jump almost 50 per cent in the Japanese business year starting April 1, might be pushed higher, Mr Pervan said.
Market consensus is for prices to rise to $US140-$US150 a tonne this year, up from $US98, yet they might now be closer to $US200.
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This price rise and potential shortage could really pressure Japan to restart it huge earthquake hit nuclear plant before everything is fully ready and people trained.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKSP34332420080116
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ANALYSIS-Japan nuclear power plant on long road to recovery
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So more info:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aR.9e4._pjvU&refer=home
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No Chance
``With the distribution network operating at breaking point prior to the floods there is little or no chance of making up this lost tonnage,'' Merrill analysts led by Sydney-based Vicky Binns said in the report dated Jan. 24.
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Now I am wondering if China may be so short of coal soon that their Summer Olympics may be cancelled. That could certainly help awaken the world to Peak Everything!
Thanks for this info Bob, check the comment left below by Rembrandt.