 | European Energy Conference, Aberdeen 22nd February 2008 | The Oil Drum: Europe | Oilwatch Monthly - February 2008 |  |
244 comments on Peak Oil and "The Limits to Growth": two parallel stories
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244 comments on Peak Oil and "The Limits to Growth": two parallel stories
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Not quite... What he actually said *in the same paper* was:
"On the basis of the present estimates of the ultimate reserves of petroleum and natural gas, it appears that the culmination of world production of these products should occur within about half a century..."
That would make his estimate for peak the year 2006. In my opinion a far more astounding feat of prediction than the oft misquoted "around the year 2000".
Well, Hubbert was no fool, of course. The figure shown in the 1956 paper has the peak in 2000, but of course he knew that a prediction for 50 years in the future could only be approximate and he said so. It was an astoundingly good prediction, indeed!