 | When completion is not the end | The Oil Drum | I guess this is discourse...? (or Levitt of Freakonomics on today's Maass piece) |  |
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Your right, al-Husseini does come off as the most credible person in the article. However, even if the Saudi's do increase their production to 12.5 million barrels a day by 2009. That is only an annual increase of 500,000 barrels.
When we compare this new data, to the EIA numbers that state NON-OPEC production is declining 500,000 barrels per year. We can see clearly that the increase in Saudi production, will be off set mostly, if not completely by the NON-OPEC decline.
I think these two figures say that we are entering a period where total production will plateau for the next five years, and when the Saudi's do begin to decline in 2009 - 2015 we will start the descent down the other side of the bell curve.
I do not claim to know the Magic number at which we reach maximum production. Perhaps, we are at peak now and 85 million barrels is it. Or perhaps high oil prices, will cause a mad rush for oil and for a couple of years we will reach 90 million barrels. Either way, I would say it is safe to predict that we are reaching "the end of spare capacity" and on the same token "the end of cheap oil", which is dependent on 2 to 5 million barrels of extra production capacity.