10. Can outside factors make a difference in future production?
I am surprised you do not mention "geopolitics" and "peace" : one ME country, still with 2nd world reserves, has been in total disarray since 2003 and contributed to the price increase. Any other war in this area would cause more price and production transeant.
Once again, the quality of economics is a factor : AFK has been postponed by the Saudis for this particular reason.

I added something on wars.