Khebab probably has his own opinion, but IMO (for what it's worth--I have never claimed to an expert on Russia) the frontier basins in Russia are to Russia as Alaska is to the US. Alaska helped, but it was pretty much a blip on the long term US decline.

As I have noted several times, Hubbert found that a one third increase in estimated Lower 48 URR, from 150 Gb to 200 Gb (four Prudhoe Bays) only postponed the projected Lower 48 peak by five years.

I don't think it's a fair argument, the Russians are extremely capable and willing in expanding their own resources. Anyway, even if a flurry of new discoveries are occurring, projects are getting more and more complex and costly. It's not easy oil anymore and timing is of the essence in sustaining good production growth rates.

Well, I would reply to those people that actually western technology would not be as advanced as it is if the Russians hadn't been contributing to that advancement. The Russians have hired some of the best engineers from the west as they have also sent out some of their own best engineers to the rest of the world.

My wife has some family working over there and they work with Schlumberger, Maurel&Prom, and such. Some areas are really very extreme and I have a lot of respect for them : they are not only very skilled but also very tough and adventurous people.