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70 comments on Russia's Oil Production is About to Peak

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Dave Cohen on April 24, 2008 - 11:40am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Some of the megaprojects are kind of iffy. TNK-BP's Uvat will be producing around 28,000 b/d in 2009. Expansion beyond that will be slow.

Gazprom's Prirazlomnoye oil field (Barents Sea offshore) is still in the discussion phase. I am doubtful it will produce 130,000 b/d in 2013. This field was discovered in 1989.

Lukoil's Yu. Korchagin (2009) is small -- 40,000 b/d.

Lukoil will be fortunate indeed to get Filanovsky off the ground in 2011 (peak at 210 in 2015?). Right now they simply can't finance development. They are hoping for some tax breaks that would allow them to start development after 2010.

Surgutneftegaz is taking Talakan (Sakha, Yakutia) to 60,000 b/d in 2009 from 20,000 b/d now. They will start production at Alenskoye in 2010. Together, they see these two fields having a potential of 80,000 b/d altogether, but no date can be assigned to that production peak.

Who knows what Vankor will eventually produce? Peak production is many years away. There are difficult financing issues i.e. where's the cash going to come from for longer term large scale development?

So, you see, what we know beyond the next few years (up to about 2011) is not much.

-- Dave

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Triffin on April 24, 2008 - 12:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Dave ..

Nice names from those Russian Projects ..

Filanovsky = Fil-a-my-tank-anovsky

Suregutneftegaz = Sure-we-got-no-gas-lefty

Can't wait for them to develop the

No-more-fuel-at-allsky project !!

Triff ..

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Euan Mearns on April 24, 2008 - 12:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I actually did some work on Prira - zlom - noye in the mid 1990s. A big carbonate field being appraised then by Hamilton Brothers. Probably not an issue getting it to produce 130,000 bpd by whenever. The telling thing is that the Russians are now developing these deep water off shore fields like this one and Shtockman. I dare say if they had a cupboard full of nice on shore fields they wouldn't bother with this stuff far off shore in the Barents Sea.

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Gail the Actuary on April 24, 2008 - 2:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Khebab,

What would the model look produce if the megaprojects produced only 50% of their supposed ultimate output?

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Khebab on April 24, 2008 - 3:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Something like that (with a 3% decline rate):

I'm still working on that Monte-Carlo simulation, it's pretty much a work in progress.

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Gail the Actuary on April 24, 2008 - 3:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks! So even with a three percent decline rate, 2008 is peak. With a 4% decline rate, it would be worse.

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Gail the Actuary on April 24, 2008 - 3:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Duplicate.

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WebHubbleTelescope on April 24, 2008 - 10:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

5% extraction rate on previous discovery-driven shock model, circa 2005

http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2005/11/fsu-oil-shock-model.html

I tend to look at the larger macro-historical sense and when I photoshop my graphs onto the micro-analyzed year-to-year data, I hope you can see what kind of apertures we have available to us.

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Khebab on April 25, 2008 - 9:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Interesting, I didn't get good results with the HSM so far. In particular, the 1998 rebound is hard to replicate.

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WebHubbleTelescope on April 25, 2008 - 8:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The rebound is basically a stabilization in extraction rate. The notch lines up with the collapse of the FSU. It seems logical that the social and financial chaos that existed during this time had a lot to do with the retrenchment and ultimate recovery in production.

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