The Oil Drum

As a lifeboat, there are some interesting implied assumptions.

Food will become a problem, Canada will not be able to import wheat from Western Canada, grind it and bake it in Eastern Canada BUT Canada will be able to keep all parts of the rural electrical grid operating.

Since one cannot make a living off of farming two acres, so I assume that he commutes some distance to a city or town (some few can telecommute). And he needs this income to pay off the loan and taxes and insurance, he expects enough fuel to afford exurban commuting for long enough to pay off his debts. And he expects that the electricity will stay on and roads cleared in the years that he is commuting. An implied assumption is that shortly after he cannot drive to work & shop, there will be a sudden collapse where even urban residents will not be working or getting to work.

If there is a multi-year time gap between exurban commuting stopping and urban collapse, hard times will come to him many years sooner. He will be a survivalist, depending on the next crop and the weather and good health (unless that tax or loan man comes) whilst Urban Dwellers are still drinking their coffee.

A social collapse, where no neighbor can be trusted is the primary and largest risk, and the risk of needing medical care (see cleared or snowed in roads), the fire department or other social services are MUCH less of a risk.

IMHO, the exurban commuting choice is bad for society and the HIGHEST personal risk. Separating oneself from society, with it's benefits, support and the efficiencies of urban living (live without using ANY oil directly) and even separating from fellow exurbanites is a risk. Break a leg in the field and ???

The rural areas will be the first without snowplows, the last to get linemen to repair the lines, long distance commuters will be squeezed first financially (many will find their lifeboats foreclosed on and a later mover will get them).

IMO, there is no risk of Canada not being able to distribute minimal food (see bread) in urban areas. There is a risk of support for rural areas, particularly in winter, being cutoff.

Alan