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186 comments on DrumBeat: February 17, 2008

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xeroid on February 17, 2008 - 11:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

UAE in 2030 .... and this attracts a decent % of travel (air for the rest) ... Oh well, just a dream. Best Hopes for Dreams coming True

Quoting Westexas

Based on a pretty good grasp of 2007 data, I estimate that the top five net oil exporters are going to show another drop of about one mbpd in net oil exports in 2007, roughly the same as 2006, on track to approach zero net exports in the 2030 time frame.

No 'net exports' by 2030 means no long distance air flights or ICE vehicles for 'net importing' countries (no vacations?) - so there's no option but to take the electric train (it will have to be be close to 100% for what long distance long distance high speed travel there is) but I doubt people would need to travel long distance to Dubai for any real reason.

By 2030 - that's just 22 years, the world will be a very different place if there aren't any net exports of oil!

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AlanfromBigEasy on February 17, 2008 - 11:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I was thinking of the rich Emiratis visiting quaint London & Paris for vacation, education, business, etc.

*IF* the UAE reduces their domestic oil consumption below today's level (say -80%), they will still be exporting oil in 2030. At an extremely good price.

ELM is NOT 'set in stone", although it seems the most likely outcome.

Another contra-example to ELM is gas rationing in Iran to constrain local demand.

Their plans to become a tourist center are heavily flawed and will likely fail (WAY too many A380s on order), but this leaves more infrastructure for the residents.

They are likely, IMHO, to have the resources to take a different path. And perhaps the wisdom.

Alan

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xeroid on February 17, 2008 - 12:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

ELM is NOT 'set in stone",

True, but actually for oil (and many other commodities) there is plenty of evidence of ELM even now.

but this leaves more infrastructure for the residents

Hmmmm ... the only other place like Dubai that I have seen is Las Vegas - except Las Vegas has fresh water nearby ... you think Las Vegas has a long term future? In UAE/Dubai all they have other than oil, tourists and aluminium (it's not the USA!) is a lot of sand.

By 2030 there will almost certainly be significantly less 'net exports' and less 'all liquids' than now, and less energy per person in general - which almost certainly means less investment and resulting economic output - a 'contraction' paradigm.

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