 | Peak Oil and "The Limits to Growth": two parallel stories | The Oil Drum | World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE - Update Feb 2008 |  |
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I was thinking of the rich Emiratis visiting quaint London & Paris for vacation, education, business, etc.
*IF* the UAE reduces their domestic oil consumption below today's level (say -80%), they will still be exporting oil in 2030. At an extremely good price.
ELM is NOT 'set in stone", although it seems the most likely outcome.
Another contra-example to ELM is gas rationing in Iran to constrain local demand.
Their plans to become a tourist center are heavily flawed and will likely fail (WAY too many A380s on order), but this leaves more infrastructure for the residents.
They are likely, IMHO, to have the resources to take a different path. And perhaps the wisdom.
Alan
True, but actually for oil (and many other commodities) there is plenty of evidence of ELM even now.
Hmmmm ... the only other place like Dubai that I have seen is Las Vegas - except Las Vegas has fresh water nearby ... you think Las Vegas has a long term future? In UAE/Dubai all they have other than oil, tourists and aluminium (it's not the USA!) is a lot of sand.
By 2030 there will almost certainly be significantly less 'net exports' and less 'all liquids' than now, and less energy per person in general - which almost certainly means less investment and resulting economic output - a 'contraction' paradigm.