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186 comments on DrumBeat: February 17, 2008

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MUDLOGGER on February 17, 2008 - 1:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

In the UAE in 2030, the streets will be deserted aside from the odd stray camels that avoided been eaten.

The UAE, All Gulf states and KSA are very high energy dependency environments which depend on almost all food from outside, high energy drinking water production and every other facet of a tolerable life (such as air conditioning) is all imported.

The exponential growth of people in this region is way beyond carrying capacity. But, at present, they have one tradeable commodity that we all need.

At some point , and maybe sooner than 2030, they will be happy to trade oil for grains, proteins, and water.

Best hopes for New Zealand with all that water and delicious Lamb...

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AlanfromBigEasy on February 17, 2008 - 3:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Quite possibly.

But a wise choice of investments, say solar distillation of water. solar PV, nuclear power, electric transit and a reshaping of the economy away from expansion/construction & tourism, might well lead to a sustainable future (particularly if the local population does more of the work and fewer expats are needed).

IMVHO it is possible to chart a different course, the resources are still there. Possible and probable are quite different concepts.

Alan

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MUDLOGGER on February 17, 2008 - 6:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Alan,

As much as I look for your posts, as much as I like your optomism, I feel that in this case, you are way off the mark.

PV will help , certainly , yes. Oil? - thats the only stuff we want. Nuclear? - Well, maybe assuming a) they are allowed, b) are trained and c) the society doesnt implode.

Where once there were a few hundred thousands who knew the desert and how to survive, there are now millions - who do not.

Tourism: Is not sustainable at any level and especially in this region. But: the entire region is now setting itself upon this course and is attempting to attract super-rich tourists, finance, banking.

So, you have rock stars, bankers, plutocrats, oligarchs - and massive support personnel from bell hops , cooks, chauffers and nannys - all concentrated on a coastal strip that cannot support more than a few thousand Arab nomads.

No.

Like the man said.

The grandchildren will forget the lear jets and go back to camels.

As for the expats: they are the ones who make it all work: be you a Phillipino Maid, or a Dutch Petroleum Engineer.

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AlanfromBigEasy on February 17, 2008 - 8:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I doubt that Michael Jackson adds much to the sustainability of Dubai. Besides massive natural increase, there are the expats.

The thrust of the current development is clearly unsustainable.

But there are a few straws that could be used when the current paradigm begins to fail. The locals need to start filling the practical jobs, a most unlikely change ATM.

The Green City may develop into a useful role model. Some % of the infrastructure could be useful to support a population of a few million for the UAE.

In a few years the A380s will start landing nearly empty. Financial turmoil will take it's toll. New Construction will slow to a crawl, many expats will be sent home. BUT the UAE will still be exporting oil. IMVHO, there will still be a window then for a change in direction, when the writing on the wall will be quite clear and resources are still available.

Modern technology can significantly increase the sustainable population, but by how much, I do not know.

Best Hopes for a Change in Direction,

Alan

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Darwinian on February 17, 2008 - 6:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

But a wise choice of investments, say solar distillation of water.

Depends on what you are distilling the water for. It is possible to distill enough water to drink:
http://www.epsea.org/stills.html
But there is no way in hell you could, with solar energy, distill enough water for irrigation or virtually anything else.

When you distill water to drink, you are in survival mode, you are not in the mode of "maintaining the current status quo". When the economy collapses because of diminishing fossil fuels, and it will, solar power will be a non factor though many dreamers are placing their hopes on it. Solar power can replace but a tiny fraction of the energy derived from petroleum.

Neither solar nor wind will save the world's massive population from total collapse when the fossil energy that got us to this point....disappears.

Ron Patterson

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Samsara on February 17, 2008 - 10:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

When the economy collapses because of diminishing fossil fuels, and it will, solar power will be a non factor though many dreamers are placing their hopes on it. Solar power can replace but a tiny fraction of the energy derived from petroleum.

From a 6.6 billion perspective you are right. It won't a difference on the energy per capita numbers.

But, For individual families, and individual small communities, they may see benefits that may be way above the global norm.

I think also the needs will be compartmentalized. A home owner's options and choices for an energy solution for home and building heating will be different than the choices they will make for transportation.

I think the numbers of low tech/locally/home made solutions will be astounding.

You will see old 8 ft satelite dish's with aluminized film on them producing hot water for home/greenhouse heating,
http://www.junkyardsolar.com/page1.html

Home made alternators making electrical power.
http://www.otherpower.com

These I grant you, will hardly make a blip on the global energy per capita basis, But.. But for the home owner/community that can do it, it will make All the difference in the world.

What they chose for transporation will be different, but the inovation will be amazing to see. Something like how Cuba kept all those 55-57 chevys running.

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