 | Peak Oil and "The Limits to Growth": two parallel stories | The Oil Drum | World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE - Update Feb 2008 |  |
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Alan,
As much as I look for your posts, as much as I like your optomism, I feel that in this case, you are way off the mark.
PV will help , certainly , yes. Oil? - thats the only stuff we want. Nuclear? - Well, maybe assuming a) they are allowed, b) are trained and c) the society doesnt implode.
Where once there were a few hundred thousands who knew the desert and how to survive, there are now millions - who do not.
Tourism: Is not sustainable at any level and especially in this region. But: the entire region is now setting itself upon this course and is attempting to attract super-rich tourists, finance, banking.
So, you have rock stars, bankers, plutocrats, oligarchs - and massive support personnel from bell hops , cooks, chauffers and nannys - all concentrated on a coastal strip that cannot support more than a few thousand Arab nomads.
No.
Like the man said.
The grandchildren will forget the lear jets and go back to camels.
As for the expats: they are the ones who make it all work: be you a Phillipino Maid, or a Dutch Petroleum Engineer.
I doubt that Michael Jackson adds much to the sustainability of Dubai. Besides massive natural increase, there are the expats.
The thrust of the current development is clearly unsustainable.
But there are a few straws that could be used when the current paradigm begins to fail. The locals need to start filling the practical jobs, a most unlikely change ATM.
The Green City may develop into a useful role model. Some % of the infrastructure could be useful to support a population of a few million for the UAE.
In a few years the A380s will start landing nearly empty. Financial turmoil will take it's toll. New Construction will slow to a crawl, many expats will be sent home. BUT the UAE will still be exporting oil. IMVHO, there will still be a window then for a change in direction, when the writing on the wall will be quite clear and resources are still available.
Modern technology can significantly increase the sustainable population, but by how much, I do not know.
Best Hopes for a Change in Direction,
Alan