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113 comments on Bread and Oil: Rising Food Prices and the Middle East

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GreyZone on March 3, 2008 - 1:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Show me where this has worked in the Middle East previously. I believe that the only prior case you can make for moderates actually solving their extremist problems was Turkey, nearly a century ago. More recently we have Iran falling to fundamentalists when the US backed Shah fell from power, Afghanistan falling to fundamentalists after defeating the Soviets (and who appear to be driving back towards ruling Afghanistan yet again), Pakistan beset by fundamentalist uprisings, Lebanon ripped apart by civil war and then seeing the fundamentalist Hezbollah rise to power...

In fact, based on the historical record, I would strongly expect revolution led by fundamentalists to be the most likely response, leading to authoritarian governments that are openly hostile to the US. Yes, Egypt might deal with its extremists. But the historical record suggests strongly that the extremists will instead deal with the moderates and deal with them violently at that.

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George Asebius on March 3, 2008 - 2:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Show me where this has worked in the Middle East previously

Egypt is a good example here of a nation that became more peaceful partially because of a food aid deal.

In fact, based on the historical record, I would strongly expect revolution led by fundamentalists to be the most likely response, leading to authoritarian governments that are openly hostile to the US.

What would they eat? Even Islamic fundamentalists have to eat?

But the historical record suggests strongly that the extremists will instead deal with the moderates and deal with them violently at that.

Although they have some success, extremists actually regularly get outmaneuvered, bought off, held in check, and sometimes outright defeated.

Iran has both oil and quite decent food production per capita (compared to Egypt). The regime has many more raw resources to play with compared with Egypt. So, it's not a good counter example, should one choose to cite it.

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wkwillis on March 4, 2008 - 12:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Pakistan just had an election. The secular parties were no longer banned by the US supported government, and the voters promptly deserted the fundamentalist parties for the secular parties.

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suyog on March 4, 2008 - 6:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

There are no secular parties in Islamic Republic of Pakistan. No one in Pakistan openly calls for separation of the mosque & state. Everyone agrees that Pakistan should be an Islamic state with laws & constitution that are based on Koran. Everyone agrees that Islam has all the answers and that an Islamic state is an ideal state. The ex-prime minister Nawaz Sharif - whose party won the second largest number of seats - was considering implementing Sharia (chop limbs, heads, stoning, flogging, etc.)just before he was ousted by Musharraf in a coup.

The only debate is over how far to go in the process of Islamization. The "moderates" will tolerate movies, TV and music. The extremists want to recreate 7th century Arabia.

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